Wagner vs. DuquesneFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalArthur J. Rooney Athletic Field

Wagner1–6

21–52Final

Duquesne2–4

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
WAGN	7	14	0	0	21
DUQU	10	7	0	35	52

Top model pick, graded

Won

Duquesne Dukes spread −13.5 52¢

Why Long Way Home likes it: Wagner averages 12.0 points and -0.167 offensive EPA/play across seven 2026 games.

Long Way HomeDown 4% this season · 3702 picks

Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 1-5 on this game · −68% return

Game total under 47.52 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, BETALAB 6.0
Why 2 models like it
Key Number CFB
- 2026 offense EPA/play is -0.094 for Duquesne and -0.167 for Wagner; recent scoring averages are only 16.8 and 12.0 points.
- QB gate cleared: a live game preview names Carson Camp and Benjamin Newman; each led his team's latest passing-attempt rows.
- Most likely loss: short fields or explosive Duquesne runs push the game to 48 or more.
BETALAB 6.0
- 2026 scoring averages total only 28.8 points: Wagner 12.0, Duquesne 16.8.
- Last-five scoring averages remain low: Wagner 9.2 points per game, Duquesne 20.2.
- Wagner allows 36.9 points per game and +0.158 defensive EPA allowed per play this season; Duquesne could score into the 30s.
Wagner Seahawks under 47.5 total pointsHigh conviction
−100%Lost
Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- under 47.5 wins at 47, while adjacent under 47 pushes at exactly 47.
- ProphetX quotes under 47.5 at -174 (63.50c) versus under 47 at -310 (75.61c): a 12.11c same-ladder inversion.
- The 2014, 2025 aggregate total distribution is broad-era CFB data and may not represent this matchup.
Wagner Seahawks to winLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 19¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
Duquesne Dukes spread −13.5
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Wagner averages 12.0 points and -0.167 offensive EPA/play across seven 2026 games.
- Wagner allows 36.9 points per game and +0.158 defensive EPA/play; Duquesne's more explosive offense should create separation.
- Duquesne's 0.376 success rate and 10.6% explosive-play rate support a controlled but sufficient favorite-margin projection.
- The expected, not confirmed, college lineups leave late personnel changes unresolved.
Total points under 45.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION edge; NO REFERENCE: Duquesne's 2026 offense is -0.094 EPA/play and Wagner's is -0.167 through Oct. 17.
- Combined scoring averages are 28.8 points per game (Duquesne 16.8, Wagner 12.0), 16.7 below this total.
- Both offenses are below 40% success rate (37.6% and 35.5%); Wagner's explosive-play rate is only 5.5%.
- Duquesne has allowed 29.3 points per game and Wagner 36.9, leaving room for defensive breakdowns.

Questions

Who won Wagner vs. Duquesne?

The Duquesne won 52–21 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.