Weber State vs. Montana StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalBobcat Stadium (MT)
Weber State5–3
33–38Final
Montana State6–1
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEBE | 10 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 33 |
| MONT | 7 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 38 |
Top model pick, graded
WonWeber State Wildcats over 25.5 points −110
Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: My fair spread is Montana State -21.5, four points shorter than the -25.5 market.
Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-2 on this game · +16% return
- Game total under 64.5 (no push; exactly 64 wins)−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- under 64.5 wins when the exact total is 64; under 64 pushes there, while all lower totals win both.
- ProphetX quotes under 64.5 at +108 while the strictly worse under 64 is -280.
- DraftKings has the same 64.5 total near -110, so +108 is independently priced and live.
- Under 64.5 still loses at 65 or more; this desk uses no independent scoring projection.
- Weber State Wildcats over 25.5 points+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- My fair spread is Montana State -21.5, four points shorter than the -25.5 market.
- Montana State owns the efficiency edge: +0.284 offensive EPA/play versus Weber's +0.120; Weber allows +0.155 defensive EPA/play while Montana State allows +0.005.
- Both teams played October 17, giving each roughly seven days' rest; no rest disadvantage offsets the underdog.
- Biggest risk: Montana State's explosive offense can turn Weber's +0.155 defensive EPA allowed into a 30-plus-point margin.
- Game total over 59.5+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent combined scoring: 74.0 points per game across each team’s last five.
- Montana State’s 0.284 offensive EPA/play and 3.37 points/drive lead to scoring upside.
- Weber State allows 0.155 defensive EPA/play; Montana State’s offense is explosive at 0.168 plays.
- Montana State’s expected lineup is not official; Taco Dowler is only a good-chance-to-play, while Taki Uluilakepa remains uncertain.
- Weber State +19+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Weber State +19 pushes at a 19-point Montana State win; Weber +19.5 wins that same margin.
- Historical CFB margin data: 156 of 10,371 games were exact 19-point margins, 1.504%.
- ProphetX Weber +19 is 67.21¢ (-205) versus Weber +19.5 at 73.33¢ (-275); the 6.12-point price gap exceeds the 1.504% push mass.
- +19 loses if Montana State wins by 20 or more; the exact-19 outcome pushes rather than wins.
- Game total under 64.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX's under 64.5 is +108 (48.08¢) while the stricter under 63.5 is -162 (61.83¢), an impossible 13.75-point ladder inversion.
- The captured main total is 64.5, 65.5, so the exchange's 64.5 contract is the relevant rung rather than an off-line comparison.
- Directional coherence: the under agrees with the existing Weber +25.5 position's lower-scoring game script.
- Most likely loss: Montana State's explosive offense creates short fields or Weber contributes enough to push the game above 64.5.
- Weber State Wildcats spread +25.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Weber averages 36.25 points, +0.120 offensive EPA/play and a .484 success rate across eight games.
- Montana State's seven-game average margin is +21.1, below the 25.5-point spread; Weber's 38-27 Idaho win contrasts with Montana State's 34-35 loss there.
- Pinnacle posts the same +25.5 at -137; ProphetX is 29 American points better on the identical line.
- Most likely loss: Montana State's +0.284 offensive EPA/play and +0.0049 defensive EPA allowed produce a decisive home blowout.
Questions
Who won Weber State vs. Montana State?
The Montana State won 38–33 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.