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FinalVitality Stadium · Bournemouth
Sunderland
0–2Final
AFC Bournemouth
Score by period
Team12T
SUND000
AFC112

Top model pick, graded

Won

under 4.5 total goals 88¢

Standing OrderDown 2% this season · 104 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 3-11 on this game · −69% return

  1. Sunderland to winLong shot3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsCoaches Corner, Long Haul +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Sunderland's Le Bris uses a compact 4-4-2 block that denies central access and forces opponents wide.
    • Rose's Bournemouth press remains intense, but current analysis says its structure is weaker and midfield can be played through.
    • A draw is a substantial tactical outcome in this matchup and loses the moneyline.
    Long Haul
    • Both XIs are now confirmed at 11 starters; both teams have three rest days, so the current read is not driven by lineup uncertainty or rest differential.
    • The model is pregame through October 15 with a 10-match xG sample; Sunderland wins only about 41% in the estimate.
    Number Earned
    • The warehouse Dixon-Coles model makes Sunderland the likeliest winner at 40.9%, ahead of Bournemouth at 30.5%.
    • Sunderland's away form is 5-1-4 with 1.79 xG for; Bournemouth's home form is 3-4-3 with 1.63 xG for.
    • Bournemouth has the home venue and a 54-point Elo advantage, so the market may be correctly discounting Sunderland.
  2. Sunderland AFC first team to score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi FTTS mids sum to 100.5%: Bournemouth 53c, Sunderland AFC 38.5c, No Goal 7.5c. The set passes the coherence screen.
    • Model No Goal is 8.9%; Kalshi Over 0.5 goals is 92.5%, implying 7.5% No Goal. The 1.4-point gap is below the identity band.
    • Current-season EPL goals per fixture rise from 0.26 in minutes 0-15 to 0.53 in minutes 76-90; the late-hazard correction is small because Sunderland's stronger tilt is modest.
    • Starting XIs are not posted. A late attacking scratch or tactical change could alter the race rates.
  3. under 4.5 total goalsFavorite
    +14%Won

    Taken at 88¢ on ProphetX

    Standing OrderDown 16% last 7 days
  4. Under 1.5 Total GoalsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • adjacent under 2.5 is -108 / 51.92c and under 3.5 is -280 / 73.68c; the low-goal rung is priced below the projection's cumulative mass.
    • The BTTS market is listed, but this total-goals rung is the cleaner qualifying contract; coverage is complete and no confirmed lineup change has invalidated the pre-kickoff lambdas.
    • The model gives approximately 70.1% to two or more goals; any 2-0, 1-1, or higher score loses.
  5. Sunderland moneyline +200
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX

    Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The model's expected goals are Sunderland 1.32 and AFC Bournemouth 1.10; this projection favors Sunderland despite the venue discount.
    • The +7.56-point gap is LEAN rather than RECOMMENDED, so model error and one-match variance are material.
  6. Sunderland AFC wins 2-0Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Coverage is sound: 10 xG games for both teams; minimum is 10.
    • Live tradable subset sums to 70¢ after removing dead quotes; this clears the 60¢ threshold.
    • live draw sum is 26.5¢ versus the Kalshi three-way TIE at 29¢.
    • Exact scores are low-base-rate outcomes; one late goal loses the contract.
Show all 12 picks
  1. Total goals over 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opp-adjusted xG: Bournemouth 1.53 for / 0.99 against; Sunderland 1.85 for / 1.00 against.
    • Blended expected total is 2.68; Poisson conversion gives approximately 50.3% Over 2.5.
    • Both sides have only 10 xG-covered matches, below the 12-game top-confidence tier.
  2. Total Goals under 2.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sunderland's sidelined Brian Brobbey carried 0.58 xG/90; Bournemouth's Eli Kroupi carried 0.64 xG/90 before their absences.
    • Both confirmed XIs returned; XI-quality coverage has 9 known players per side, with warehouse xG coverage active.
    • The board already moved toward the under: ProphetX over 2.5 fell from 48.08c at 3:56am to 41.67c now, so this is projection, not timing.
    • Most likely loss is three or more goals; the current starting-XI attack totals still sum to 4.11 xG/90.
  3. Sunderland moneyline (2 Way)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX

    Regression PairsDown 49% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices Sunderland +200 in its 2-way moneyline while its 3-way Sunderland binary is +320 and AFC Bournemouth is the favorite elsewhere on its board.
    • Process favors Sunderland: 1.79 xGF per match versus Bournemouth's 1.63; opponent-adjusted xGF is 1.85 versus 1.53.
    • Sunderland's results lagged process by 5.88 goals over 10 matches: 12 actual goals versus 17.88 xG (-0.59 per match).
    • Both teams have three days' rest and multiple players sidelined; the confirmed XI does not eliminate tactical or substitution variance.
  4. Both Teams To Score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: Bournemouth scores-read 74.3% and Sunderland 76.1%; geometric independent BTTS estimate 56.5%.
    • Symmetric profile: both attacks face defenses allowing 1.21 and 1.11 xGA per match respectively.
    • Raw yes_ask 0.55, fraction regime (55c); 55c market-implied price leaves a small projection gap.
    • Only 10 matches per team; one early red card, finishing swing, or goalkeeper variance can decide BTTS.
  5. AFC Bournemouth spread NO 2.5Favorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live state: Bournemouth leads 1-0 at 25'; Sunderland defender Kevin Danso was sent off at 17'.
    • Pregame lambdas are Bournemouth 1.10 and Sunderland 1.32; xG coverage is 10 matches for both sides.
    • EPL sample: home teams won by 3+ in 9 of 65 matches (13.8%); current red-card state further supports avoiding a 3+ Bournemouth margin.
    • The own 74% estimate is a cautious live adjustment, not a live xG hazard model; an early red card or penalty can overwhelm it.
  6. AFC Bournemouth spread NOFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 78¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opp-adjusted inputs: BOU xGF/xGA 1.53/0.99; SUN xGF/xGA 1.85/1.00.
    • No independent sharp exact-rung handicap exists, so this is venue self-reference rather than a sharp-reference claim.

Questions

Who won Sunderland vs. AFC Bournemouth?

AFC Bournemouth won 2-0 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.

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