FinalPortman Road Stadium · Ipswich
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOTT | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| IPSW | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonBoth Teams To Score 61¢
Why Both Nets likes it: Ipswich scoring read: λ≈1.57 from 1.51 oppadj xGF versus Forest 1.62 away xGA; P(score)≈79%.
Both NetsDown 6% this season · 589 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-11 on this game · −86% return
- Total goals over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsTwo Nil, Snapp Decision of the Day +1Why 3 models like it
Two Nil- Opp-adjusted xG: Ipswich 1.51 attack plus Forest 1.30 defense; Forest 1.71 attack plus Ipswich 1.49 defense; expected total 3.00.
- Only 10 xG-backed matches per team; the total-goals distribution remains wide.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Model expected goals total 3.34: Ipswich 1.45 and Nottingham Forest 1.88.
- Opponent-adjusted attacking xG is strong on both sides: 1.51 for Ipswich and 1.71 for Forest.
- Two goals or fewer loses despite the model's favorable median environment.
Deep Book- Most likely loss is 0-0 or 1-0. Expected XIs remain unconfirmed as of 9:16am PDT.
- Nottingham Forest to win−100%Lost
Taken at +125 on DraftKings
2 modelsNumber Earned, Snapp Decision of the DayWhy 2 models like it
Number Earned- Model gives Forest 47.3% to win versus 42.9% sharp-market fair probability.
- Away expected goals: Forest 1.88 versus Ipswich 1.45; opponent-adjusted away xG-for is 1.71.
- Forest's away form is poor: 1-3-6 across the sampled away split, with 8 goals scored and 15 conceded.
Snapp Decision of the Day- 47.3% warehouse model probability exceeds the +125 price's 44.4% break-even.
- Forest's opponent-adjusted away xG for is 1.71 versus Ipswich's home defensive 1.49.
- Pinnacle's devigged three-way Forest probability is only 42.9%, opposing the warehouse model.
- Match over 2.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at −135 on BetMGM
Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected goals total is 3.34: Ipswich 1.45, Forest 1.88.
- Forest’s 0.91 directness ratio and 12.47 PPDA point to fast attacks rather than control.
- O’Neil favors adaptable possession shapes, and Ipswich’s confirmed 3-4-3 should offer an open transition matchup.
- Forest have scored only five despite strong xG, so finishing variance can keep this under.
- Match total over 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted rates imply Ipswich 1.40 and Forest 1.60 goals, 3.00 combined.
- The warehouse Dixon-Coles pair is 1.45/1.88 with 64.7% over-2.5, directionally supportive.
- Pinnacle's sharp anchor is 2.75, over +102, supporting an open scoring expectation.
- The own-rate edge is modest at about 2.7 percentage points before model error.
- Nottingham Forest team total over 0.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi
Team SheetDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Igor Jesus is confirmed out; his recorded xG rate is 0.40 per 90 across 633 minutes.
- Forest lambda shifts from 1.88 before news to 1.48 after subtracting Igor Jesus's xG share.
- Confirmed XI appeared at 11:00 PDT; Kalshi's last contract change was 10:57 PDT, before the news.
- Liam Delap and the confirmed replacement structure can offset part of the missing attack.
- Over 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG supports the total: Ipswich 1.51 for / 1.49 against; Nottingham Forest 1.71 for / 1.30 against.
- Coverage is 10 xG matches for both sides (gp_with_xg: Ipswich 10, Nottingham Forest 10); rest is 6 versus 5 days.
- BTTS YES is also listed at 60.63¢ (-154), but its smaller model gap is secondary; this is the single selected market for the game.
- Expected, not confirmed XIs as of 9:27 AM; official lineups are not posted and a late attacking change could move the lambdas.
Show all 9 picks
- Total goals over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The same opponent-adjusted inputs produce 1.41 Ipswich expected goals and 1.60 Nottingham Forest expected goals: 3.00 total.
- Dixon-Coles over-2.5 probability is 0.65, directionally supportive, while the tempo proxies are not conservative; edge class PROJECTION; band LEAN.
- Pinnacle 2.75, off-rung; the 3.5 claim uses Kalshi's own same-rung ladder price only.
- Projected over-3.5 probability is only about 35%, so one goal short loses; variance dominates this thinner edge.
- Both Teams To Score+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Ipswich scoring read: λ≈1.57 from 1.51 oppadj xGF versus Forest 1.62 away xGA; P(score)≈79%.
- Forest scoring read: λ≈1.69 from 1.71 oppadj xGF versus Ipswich 1.68 home xGA; P(score)≈82%.
- Pinnacle fair probability is about 5 points below the side-based estimate; the attack-defense blend may be too optimistic.
- Nottingham Forest spread −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- oppadj inputs are Ipswich 1.51 xGF/1.49 xGA and Forest 1.71/1.30; xG coverage is 10 matches each.
- Dixon-Coles Forest -0.5 AH is 47.3%; lambda cross-check estimates Forest winning by 2+ at approximately 26.7%.
- Current-season EPL data show Forest-direction 2+ margins in only 8/70 matches (11.4%); this is generic, not team-conditional.
Questions
Who won Nottingham Forest vs. Ipswich Town?
Ipswich Town won 1-1 on Friday, Oct 23, 2026.