FinalStadium of Light · Sunderland
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| LEED | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SUND | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-15 on this game · −100% return
- Sunderland to win−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsLow Tide Line, Snapp Decision of the Day +1Why 3 models like it
Low Tide Line- Confirmed lineups and full model coverage; Sunderland's model inputs include a 63.2-point Elo advantage at home.
- Movement runs with the projection: Pinnacle shortened Sunderland from +203 to +183, while the home side's prediction-market prices held around 33, 34c.
- Sunderland's recent five-game form is only 1-3-1 with a -1.0 scoring margin; the model may be overrating the home rating.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Sunderland's home xG is 1.72; Leeds' away xG allowed is 1.60.
- Sunderland's confirmed XI has 2.80 attacking xG; both lineups are confirmed.
- Sunderland's recent L5 is only 1-3-1 and its home record is 4-2-4.
Number Earned- 43.9% warehouse-model home-win probability versus 36.4% breakeven at +175: +7.6 percentage points.
- Model expected goals favor Sunderland 1.72, 1.43; opponent-adjusted home xG is 1.76.
- Sunderland is on three rest days with fixture congestion; Leeds has seven rest days.
- Both Teams To Score−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsBoth Nets, Both Sides Dangerous +1Why 3 models like it
Both Nets- Sunderland scoring read 81.4% from 1.76 opp-adjusted xGF versus Leeds' 1.60 xGA.
- Leeds scoring read 78.9% from 1.59 opp-adjusted xGF versus Sunderland's 1.52 xGA; symmetric both-sides-score setup.
- Both defenses show 30% clean-sheet rates, so one unusually efficient defense can still kill YES.
Both Sides Dangerous- Opponent-adjusted xGF is 1.76 for Sunderland and 1.59 for Leeds.
- Both teams average 4.9+ shots on target recently; Sunderland 15.2 shots and Leeds 12.9.
- Expected, not confirmed, XIs; official lineups are not posted yet.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Sunderland and Leeds' projected xG are 1.72 and 1.43, respectively.
- Recent windows show 2.67 Sunderland big chances and 3.0 Leeds big chances created per match.
- The head-to-head sample is only four meetings and should carry little weight.
- Match total over 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted rates: Sunderland 1.76 xGF and 1.21 xGA; Leeds 1.59 xGF and 1.35 xGA.
- Pinnacle's sharp anchor is over 2.25 at -112, supporting an elevated scoring baseline despite being a different rung.
- The model relies on a 10-match minimum xG sample and may be miscalibrated.
- Sunderland 2-way to win−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed Sunderland XI rates 2.63 attacking xG and 6.87; Leeds rates 1.87 and 6.82.
- Leeds lose Mateo Joseph (0.43 xG/90, four club starts) and Joe Rodon (six starts, 6.76 rating).
- Sunderland retain Brobbey (0.63 xG/90, 7.33 rating), Xhaka (7.35) and Le Fée (7.19).
- Most likely loss: the match draws; ProphetX Moneyline (2 Way) grades a draw as a loss.
- Leeds United–Sunderland over 1.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX
Regression PairsDown 49% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Process totals 3.37 xG (Sunderland 1.77, Leeds 1.60) and 3.35 opponent-adjusted xG; both samples are 10 matches.
- Results lag process: Sunderland scores 1.00 versus 1.77 xG (-0.77), Leeds 1.40 versus 1.60 (-0.20); no friendlies in either window.
- Confirmed XIs were posted at 8:30/8:40 AM PDT; coverage is 10/10 xG matches for both teams.
- The team-level scoring gaps are below the brief's greater-than-one-goal candidate threshold, so this is a lean on internal coherence rather than a full projection read.
- Over 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG supports the total: Sunderland 1.76 xGF / 1.21 xGA; Leeds 1.59 xGF / 1.35 xGA.
- Expected, not confirmed, XIs were last refreshed 10/24; late striker or goalkeeper changes could move the lambdas.
Show all 11 picks
- Sunderland spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 14¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- DC lambdas 1.71 home and 1.43 away imply Sunderland winning by 2+ about 23.4%; own adjusted estimate 20%.
- English Premier League sample: 71 matches, home margin 2+ in 19.7%; margin 3+ in 12.7%, supporting lumpy tails.
- Sunderland has only 3 rest days versus Leeds United's 7, a meaningful favorite-cover downgrade.
- Sunderland AFC wins 2-1−100%Lost
Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Home is Sunderland; model key 2-1 maps to “Sunderland AFC wins 2-1”.
- Coverage is 10 xG matches for both teams; the RECOMMENDED coverage threshold is met.
- Live at 35', 0-0; the pregame distribution is not a conditional live model.
- Total goals over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Expected total 2.96: Sunderland 1.56 plus Leeds 1.40 from opponent-adjusted xG.
- Only 10 xG matches per side, below the 12-game top tier; model uncertainty is material.
- Total goals over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX
Bench BossDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- confirmed Leeds 3-4-2-1 and Sunderland 4-2-3-1 keep multiple attacking lines on the pitch.
- Sunderland’s 10-game home sample averages 1.77 expected goals; Leeds’ 10-game away sample averages 1.60.
- Rest split is 3 days for Sunderland versus 7 for Leeds, increasing late defensive-error risk after a compressed turnaround.
- Most likely loss: one side controls territory and the match finishes 1-0 or 0-1.
- Game over 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at +120 on FanDuel
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected goals total 3.14 from Sunderland 1.72 and Leeds 1.43 expected goals.
- Confirmed lineups preserve attacking cores; combined attacking-XG starter figures are 5.31.
- Both teams average at least 12.9 shots per match across the recent 10-game window.
- The sharp reference is 2.25 rather than 2.5, and market pricing still favors the under at 2.5.
Questions
Who won Leeds United vs. Sunderland?
Sunderland won 0-0 on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026.