FinalAbanca-Balaídos · Vigo
Deportivo Alavés
1–2Final
Celta de Vigo
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| DA | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CDV | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals over 2.5 38¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Alavés opp-adjusted xGF 1.21 + Celta opp-adjusted xGA 1.42; away read 1.32 goals, producing expected total 2.37.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-15 on this game · −72% return
- Deportivo Alavés to win−100%Lost
Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi
5 modelsTeam Sheet, Fair Price Pairs +3Why 5 models like it
Team Sheet- Celta has 3 rest days plus a one-sided congestion flag; Alavés has 8 rest days. Rest differential is -5 days.
- Pinnacle is +270 on Alavés; the warehouse model makes the away win 47.7%. Structural mechanism: rested Alavés versus congested Celta.
- The rest signal is structural, not a named injury; its match impact is uncertain.
Fair Price Pairs- Model lambdas favor Alavés, 1.28 away goals versus Celta's 0.78 home goals; placement is ProphetX only.
- Features were computed through October 15; late XI or news changes could reduce the model edge.
Team Sheet Pairs- confirmed XI is the load-bearing trigger; Alavés has 10 known XI-quality starters versus Celta's 9, with starter attack xG 2.01 versus 1.69.
- Alavés's listed starting front two, Toni Martínez and Lucas Boyé, carry 0.49 and 0.40 xG/90; Celta's listed attacking trio total 0.64 xG/90.
- Celta's XI-quality sample has only 9 known players, and the usual-XI comparison is incomplete; the personnel delta may be overstated.
Deep Book- Board as_of_pt 2026-10-18T06:35:34-07:00. ProphetX web link is attached to the contract.
- Most likely loss: Celta de Vigo wins in regular time; a draw should push this 2-way contract.
- under 2.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsStanding Order, Two Nil Pairs +1Why 3 models like it
Standing Order- Pinnacle is on total 2.0, not the traded 2.5 rung; no sharp comparison is used.
- Celta -0.5 and Alavés +0.5 are near-balanced, so cross-market flow is not uniformly aligned.
Two Nil Pairs- Current lineup lookup shows 11 starters for each side; no confirmed personnel change invalidates the fitted goal distribution.
- only the 2.5 Total Goals rung is listed; no BTTS-shaped market or adjacent total rung exists.
- Features were computed through 2026-10-15; late tactical changes could be underabsorbed despite confirmed XIs.
Long Haul- The combined model lambdas are 2.06 (Celta 0.78, Alavés 1.28), supporting a low-scoring projection rather than a directional team position.
- Most likely loss path: three or more goals, especially an early breakthrough that opens the match; this market has no push.
- Total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi
Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed 3-4-3 versus 5-3-2 favors Alavés compactness and limits central access.
- Claudio Giráldez's expansive Celta shape meets Quique Flores' five-man defensive structure.
- Recent reports show Celta held 34% possession with zero shots on target; Alavés had only three shots on target.
- Celta's aggressive wing positioning can create transition chances if Alavés' block is bypassed.
- Match total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX
Bench BossDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Celta's confirmed 4-3-3 has three rest days and a fixture-congestion flag; Alavés has eight rest days.
- Alavés' confirmed 5-3-2 can compress Celta's 4-3-3; Celta averages 10.7 shots across the recent 10-match window.
- Both starting elevens are confirmed in soccer_query, clearing the personnel gate; current lineups show no late DNP uncertainty.
- Most likely loss: Alavés' 0.98 directness ratio creates transition chances and pushes the match to three goals.
- Deportivo Alavés wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi
Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 days - Deportivo Alaves wins 1-0−100%Lost
Taken at 10¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Home is Celta de Vigo; model key 0-1 maps to exact contract 'Deportivo Alaves wins 1-0'.
- The six-score top-k is truncated; the Dixon-Coles exact-score calibration is not independently validated.
Show all 11 picks
- Total goals over 2.5+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Alavés opp-adjusted xGF 1.21 + Celta opp-adjusted xGA 1.42; away read 1.32 goals, producing expected total 2.37.
- Only 9 Celta and 10 Alavés matches carry xG; early-season samples can move materially.
- Deportivo Alavés spread +0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
Regression PairsDown 49% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX's Celta -0.5 spread with a 2.5 total conflicts with the underlying away-favored xG profile.
- Over 10 matches, Celta produced 0.90 xGF/1.31 xGA; Alavés produced 1.23/1.22. Opponent-adjusted figures also favor Alavés: 1.21 xGF/1.24 xGA versus Celta's 0.87/1.42.
- Most likely loss: Celta wins by two or more, sending the +0.5 spread ticket down.
- Deportivo Alavés−100%Lost
Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse Dixon-Coles model makes Alavés a 47.7% away winner.
- Alavés leads opponent-adjusted away xG 1.21 to Celta's home 0.87.
- Celta has only 8 points from 10 home matches and enters on three days' rest versus Alavés' eight.
- Celta's home side has a 5-day rest advantage, and fixture congestion can distort the model.
- Both Teams To Score+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: Celta scoring read 64.6% (λ 1.04); Alavés scoring read 73.1% (λ 1.31).
- Geometric xG blend uses Celta 0.87 oppadj xGF vs Alavés 1.24 xGA, and Alavés 1.21 vs Celta 1.42.
- Near-symmetric scoring case, not the asymmetric weak-attacker versus elite-defense setup; xG coverage is 9 matches for Celta and 10 for Alavés.
- Dixon-Coles cross-check is only 39.6% BTTS-YES, materially below the side-derived 47.2% read.
- Deportivo Alavés spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 10¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted inputs: Celta 0.87 xGF / 1.24 xGA matchup rates; Alavés 1.21 xGF / 1.42 xGA.
- Dixon-Coles lambdas are Celta 0.78 and Alavés 1.28; independent Poisson cross-check gives Alavés 2+ probability 0.22.
- Current-season La Liga distribution: Alavés-style away margin of 2+ is a 12-of-83 historical tail; 0/1/2 home margins comprise 54.2%.
- No independent same-rung sharp price: Pinnacle posts -0.25, which is not interchangeable with Kalshi's -1.5 rung.
Questions
Who won Deportivo Alavés vs. Celta de Vigo?
Celta de Vigo won 2-1 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.