FinalEstadio Ciudad de Valencia · Valencia
Athletic Club
1–3Final
Levante
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| LEV | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 2.5 total goals 48¢
Why EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner likes it: Model projects 55.9% for over 2.5 versus the 48¢ market price.
EV & Line Value Multi-Sport ScannerUp 5% return this season · 42 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-1 on this game · +39% return
- Over 2.5 total goals+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsEV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner, Kickoff ClockWhy 2 models like it
EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner- Model projects 55.9% for over 2.5 versus the 48¢ market price.
- Model expected goals total 2.92, with Athletic’s adjusted attacking xG at 1.70.
- Under money is meaningful: current Pinnacle under -122 and Polymarket US over costs 48 cents.
Kickoff Clock- Season xG rates total 3.04 per match: Levante 1.44, Athletic Club 1.60.
- Confirmed-XI attack quality totals 4.07 xG: Levante 2.17, Athletic Club 1.90.
- Biggest risk: the teams’ last-10 actual goals total exactly 2.50 per match, so the xG uplift may not convert.
- Athletic Club to win−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US
EV & Line Value Multi-Sport ScannerDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model makes Athletic Club 56.2% to win versus the 47¢ market price.
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Athletic 1.70, 1.53; adjusted xGA favors Athletic 0.92, 1.49.
- Pinnacle away price shortened from +122 to +116 while Levante drifted from +276 to +280.
- Both teams are 2-4-4 in their last 10 venue-specific matches; the form gap is not decisive.
Questions
Who won Athletic Club vs. Levante?
Levante won 3-1 on Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026.