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FinalRiyadh Air Metropolitano · Madrid
Deportivo A Coruña
0–1Final
Atlético de Madrid
Score by period
Team12T
DEPO000
ATLE011

Top model pick, graded

Won

Match total goals under 2.5 39¢

Why Two Nil likes it: Kalshi ladder: Over 2.5 YES mid 0.61 and Over 3.5 YES mid 0.41; Poisson interpolation is roughly a 3.2-goal market mean, materially above the 2.48 xG read.

Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-7 on this game · +17% return

  1. Total goals under 3.52 models agree
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsBench Boss, Long Haul
    Why 2 models like it
    Bench Boss
    • Atlético’s 10-match style sample shows 12.53 PPDA, 59.4% possession and .547 field tilt: territorial control should suppress a chaotic match.
    • Deportivo’s 10-match sample shows 14.01 PPDA, .455 field tilt and 47.6% possession, pointing to less sustained attacking pressure.
    • Most likely loss: an early transition or set piece opens the game, and Atlético’s attacking quality produces four goals.
    Long Haul
    • Single-leg ticket avoids parlay tax; the exact under-3.5 contract was re-read on ProphetX at 9:16am PDT.
    • Most likely loss is four or more goals; an early Atlético goal or finishing surge can break the under.
  2. DrawLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on Kalshi

    xG Draw DeskDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model draw probability 29.6% versus 16.0% Pinnacle devigged draw probability from -357/+994/+504.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG blend projects 1.35 home and 1.12 away, only 0.23 goals apart.
    • Venue-adjusted xG lambdas are 1.30 and 0.90; expected total 2.21 versus La Liga's 3.07 current baseline.
    • Both XIs remain expected rather than confirmed; a late goalkeeper or attacking rotation change can materially alter the projection.
  3. Match total goals under 2.5
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi ladder: Over 2.5 YES mid 0.61 and Over 3.5 YES mid 0.41; Poisson interpolation is roughly a 3.2-goal market mean, materially above the 2.48 xG read.
    • Self-reference only: no independent sharp quote exists on the exact 2.5 rung; Pinnacle's posted 3.0 total is off-rung and not treated as a direct comparison.
  4. Game total under 2.5
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    EV & Line Value Multi-Sport ScannerDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model makes over 2.5 only 38.0%, implying 62.0% under versus a 39¢ Kalshi NO contract.
    • Combined expected goals are 2.21: Atlético 1.31 and Deportivo 0.90.
    • Atlético lost major attacking and goalkeeping contributors; Deportivo are without Aubameyang and Casadó.
    • The model features are through October 20 and may not fully incorporate extensive roster turnover.
  5. Deportivo A Coruña under 0.5 team goals
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Team SheetDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed XI at 11:10 PDT. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is absent; his tracked xG rate is 0.60 per 90 over 774 minutes.
    • Away lambda is 0.90 before the adjustment and 0.31 after subtracting Aubameyang's xG share.
    • Kalshi DEP1 last changed at 11:07 PDT, before the 11:10 PDT lineup news; the timing test passes.
    • Current Deportivo XI attacking quality is 1.92, above the recent team xG rate of 1.33; the replacement may offset the absence.
  6. Draw (Tie)Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on Kalshi

    StalemateUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • La Liga draw share is 28.3% (26/92); venue-matched xG is 2.40 total with a 0.14 side gap, inside the 2.5/0.35 band.
    • Control is balanced: PPDA gap 1.48 and field-tilt gap 9.2 percentage points, both inside the draw-shape limits.
    • Own probabilities are Atlético 72% / Tie 18% / Deportivo 10%; Pinnacle's devigged three-way reference is Atlético 75.2% / Tie 15.9% / Deportivo 8.9%.
    • Atlético's 194-point Elo advantage and home form can produce a routine home win instead of a tie.
Show all 15 picks
  1. Under 3.5 Total Goals
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 9:11am PDT lineup refresh is still expected rather than confirmed; Atlético has 4 rest days versus Deportivo's 8. ProphetX listed no BTTS-shaped market.
    • The ticket loses at 4+ goals; the goal-count estimate leaves roughly 18.3% in that tail.
  2. Deportivo A Coruña first half winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 11¢ on Kalshi

    Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 29 of 81 recent La Liga goals came by minute 45, a 35.8% first-half share across 26 fixtures.
    • Using that share, lambda_home 1.31, lambda_away 0.90, and dc_rho -0.05 gives Deportivo a 18.2% first-half win probability.
    • Deportivo's 10.5c first-half price exceeds its 8.5c full-time win price; first-half away-win probability should be lower.
    • Expected XIs are not confirmed; Atlético has four days' rest and a congestion flag.
  3. Draw 0-0Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 4¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Orientation: home is Atlético de Madrid and away is Deportivo A Coruña; model key 0-0 maps to contract “Draw 0-0”.
    • NO REFERENCE. Correct-score contracts lack a sharp exact-score reference; model shape is low-scoring: lambda home 1.31, away 0.90.
    • Correct score is high variance; the model's largest mass is 1-0 at 0.14, not 0-0.
  4. Match total goals under 3.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Deportivo oppadj xGF 1.33 + Atlético oppadj xGA 0.92 ⇒ 1.12; computed expected total is 2.48.
    • Kalshi's ladder gives a derived reference around 3.1, 3.2 goals; Dixon-Coles under 2.5 is 0.62, directionally consistent.
    • No independent same-rung sharp check: Pinnacle's posted 3.0 line is not interchangeable with 3.5.
  5. Both Teams To Score NO
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Both Sides DangerousDown 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model BTTS-No probability is 56%, versus roughly 51% fair from Kalshi’s 48c/50c YES market.
    • Atlético’s opponent-adjusted xGA is 0.92; its recent defensive profile allows 0.9 goals and posts a 40% clean-sheet rate.
    • Deportivo averages only 4.2 shots on target and 7.6 shots inside the box per match; Aubameyang is listed out.
    • Recent BTTS form leans Yes: Deportivo is 4-for-5 and Atlético 3-for-5 in the latest listed matches.
  6. Both Teams To Score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlético scoring read ≈74% (oppadj xGF 1.50 versus Deportivo xGA 1.21); 9-match xG sample.
    • Deportivo scoring read ≈68% (oppadj xGF 1.33 versus Atlético xGA 0.99); 9-match xG sample.
    • Symmetric BTTS case: both independent scoring probabilities are solid; their product is ≈50.8% YES.
    • Both projected XIs are expected rather than confirmed; Atlético and Deportivo have notable listed absences.
  7. Atlético de Madrid spread over 2.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION edge class: exact-rung comparison avoids substituting the -1.5 or -1.75 ladder prices; confirmed lineups and a live 0-0 state at 23' are reflected in the current board.
    • Full xG coverage is present: λ home 1.30, λ away 0.90, with 9 xG games minimum for both sides; Kalshi's contract is active and liquid.
    • The warehouse Dixon-Coles cross-check estimates roughly 7.6% for a 3+ Atlético margin, while current-season La Liga shows 15 of 93 home teams winning by 3+; both conflict with the 31.3% sharp reference.
  8. Total goals under 2.5
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • REFERENCE. The 2.5 total is the only clear flow signal; spread size is balanced and moneyline prices fail the band gate.
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-24T09:28:53-07:00. LEAN ticket. Stake is 0.5 units.
    • Most likely loss: three or more goals; the model sample is only nine xG-covered matches.
  9. Deportivo A CoruñaLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 8¢ on Kalshi

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • xG model: Atlético 1.30 expected goals, Deportivo 0.90; the model gives Deportivo a 25.2% away-win probability.
    • Kalshi YES costs 8¢, implying an 8% break-even probability before fees; the model-to-price gap is 17.2 points.
    • Deportivo's opponent-adjusted away xG for is 1.33 versus Atlético's 0.92 home xG against.
    • Atlético are 7-1-2 at home with a 19-9 goal record and 20 home points.

Questions

Who won Deportivo A Coruña vs. Atlético de Madrid?

Atlético de Madrid won 1-0 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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