FinalEstadio de Mestalla · Valencia
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| VILL | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| VALE | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonVillarreal −0.5 46¢
Why Team Sheet Pairs likes it: Villarreal's confirmed-XI attack proxy is 2.33 versus Valencia's 1.85; top-XI xG is 0.68 versus 0.57 and XI ratings are 6.83 versus 6.81.
Team Sheet PairsEven this season · 351 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-4 on this game · +0% return
- Both teams to score no−100%Lost
Taken at +138 on FanDuel
2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Both NetsWhy 2 models like it
Snapp Decision of the Day- Warehouse BTTS model: NO 45.9%, versus FanDuel +138 break-even 42.0%.
- Model expected goals are 1.11 Valencia and 1.60 Villarreal; Valencia's home xG output is only 1.06.
- Pinnacle's current BTTS prices imply a lower devigged NO probability of 40.2%; the model must be right against a sharper anchor.
Both Nets- Projection: blended per-side λ reads Valencia 1.33 (73.6% to score) and Villarreal 1.64 (80.7%); BTTS-NO 40.6%.
- Coverage is real: both sides have xG and 10 matches with xG; mild asymmetry favors NO, but this is not the strong low-attacker/elite-defense setup.
- The 0.6-point margin is smaller than model and market uncertainty; variance dominates.
- Villarreal −0.5+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Villarreal's confirmed-XI attack proxy is 2.33 versus Valencia's 1.85; top-XI xG is 0.68 versus 0.57 and XI ratings are 6.83 versus 6.81.
- Valencia list four sidelined players, including Umar Sadiq (0.56 xG/90) and Diego López (0.13); Villarreal list only Nicolas Pépé (0.18 xG/90), supporting the away-side adjustment.
- Most likely loss: a draw or Valencia win; Villarreal -0.5 has no draw protection.
- 1H over 1.5 goals scored+56%Won
Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 29 of 81 goals were first-half goals across 30 recent La Liga fixtures: 35.8%.
- The complete full-match ladder fits near 2.90 goals; the measured split reconciles the 1H mean near 1.04.
- The clean 1H ladder fits near 1.29 goals; reconciled P(1H over 1.5) is about 27.5% versus the 36.5% YES midpoint.
- The 2H ladder was checked only as a constraint: its 1.5 and 2.5 rungs have 9¢ spreads and fail the dead-quote screen.
- Match under 2.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The full Kalshi ladder's midpoint-implied total is approximately 2.87 goals, above the 2.77 xG projection.
- Villarreal's 11.93 PPDA and 0.58 field tilt indicate transition and territorial pressure; Valencia's corresponding figures are 14.75 and 0.43.
- Villarreal spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 25¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 days - Villarreal spread −0.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-24T06:43:36-07:00. Price band and $300 size gate pass.
- The 5.49x size ratio is below the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold; this is LEAN and half-sized.
Show all 7 picks
- Villarreal to win+115%Won
Taken at +115 on DraftKings
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model away win probability 48.0% versus 46.5% break-even at +115.
- Villarreal lead the matchup in opponent-adjusted xG: 1.96 for versus Valencia's 1.13 against.
- Villarreal's recent rolling profile is stronger: 16.6 shots, 5.9 on target and 3.3 big chances per match.
- The model edge is only about 1.5 percentage points, so normal soccer variance dominates.
Questions
Who won Villarreal vs. Valencia?
Villarreal won 2-1 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.