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FinalEstadio de Vallecas · Madrid
Elche
3–0Final
Rayo Vallecano
Score by period
Team12T
ELCH213
RAYO000

Top model pick, graded

Won

Elche spread +0.5 45¢

Why Half Goal Pairs likes it: Confirmed XIs were posted at 4:00 AM PDT; coverage is clean with has_xg true and 10 xG games for each side; lambdas are Rayo 1.35, Elche 1.42.

Half Goal PairsEven this season · 60 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-8 on this game · +34% return

  1. Elche spread +0.52 models agree
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsHalf Goal Pairs, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Half Goal Pairs
    • Confirmed XIs were posted at 4:00 AM PDT; coverage is clean with has_xg true and 10 xG games for each side; lambdas are Rayo 1.35, Elche 1.42.
    • ProphetX comparison contracts lean Rayo: 2-way Rayo -280 and 90-minute Rayo YES -124, so the play is model-led rather than consensus-led.
    Deep Book
      • Most likely loss: Rayo Vallecano wins by one or more goals; the warehouse model does not provide a margin distribution.
    • Total goals under 2.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Deep Book
      Why 2 models like it
      Team Sheet Pairs
      • Rayo list Raúl de Tomás, Augusto Batalla and Luiz Felipe out; Elche list Marc Aguado and Yago Santiago out, while the confirmed replacement XI is now known.
      • ProphetX had already moved the total from opening 2.5 under +102 to the current +120, so some under sentiment was priced before the lineup.
      Deep Book
      • Both sides are quoted and the under clears the $300 size gate. Price is inside the -250 to +300 band.
      • LEAN. Flow is strong, but only 43.0% of depth is at the best rung; this is not concentrated refill evidence.
      • Most likely loss: three or more goals; the 2.5 line has no push protection.
    • ElcheLong shot2 models agree
      +376%Won

      Taken at 21¢ on Polymarket US

      2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number Earned
      Why 2 models like it
      Snapp Decision of the Day
      • Elche's away opp-adjusted xGA is 1.33 versus Rayo's home 1.75.
      • Rayo's L5 is better at 2-1-2 versus Elche's 1-1-3.
      Number Earned
      • Warehouse Dixon-Coles model makes Elche 38.4%; I haircut that to 34.5% for model uncertainty.
      • Kalshi Elche YES costs 21¢; my 34.5% estimate implies roughly 13.5 percentage points of edge.
      • DraftKings and Pinnacle strongly oppose the model, pricing Elche around +360/+364; Kalshi's own mid-price is only 20.5¢.
    • 1H goals under 1.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi

      Half LightDown 15% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 1H ladder Poisson fit is 1.27 goals; full-match ladder mean is 2.82.
      • Recent La Liga sample: 20 of 57 goals before halftime, a 35.1% first-half share; split-implied 1H mean is 0.99.
      • Over 1.5 1H is quoted at 36.5%; reconciled tail is about 26.1%, a 10.4-point gap and the largest 1H rung mismatch.
      • The split uses only 20 recent La Liga fixtures; 35.1% may regress.
    • Draw (Tie)Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 25¢ on Kalshi

      StalemateUp 10% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Control gate passes: field-tilt gap is 2.4 percentage points and PPDA gap is 2.04, both inside the 10pp/4.0 limits.
      • Most likely loss: Rayo's 7-3-0 home profile and Elche's 2-4-4 away profile convert the home edge into a Rayo win.
    • Elche to winLong shot
      +270%Won

      Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX

      Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 days
    Show all 11 picks
    1. Both Teams To Score
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

      Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION; symmetric BTTS case: both defenses carry elevated xG-against, Rayo 1.82, Elche 1.56 per match.
      • Elche's attack is the weaker side at 1.09 oppadj xGF; a finishing or chance-creation failure makes BTTS-NO the live failure mode.
    2. Elche CF wins 2-1 exact scoreLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi

      ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    3. Match under 2.5 total goals
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

      Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • A rough Poisson inversion of Kalshi's 54.5% over price implies about 2.86 goals, modestly above the 2.78 xG estimate.
      • no same-rung sharp check; Pinnacle's live 2.75 total is off-line and excluded from the comparison.
      • Pressing inputs are proxy-based: Elche PPDA 11.71 and Rayo 9.67, with dangerous-attacks field-tilt proxies rather than robust event data.
    4. Under 2.5 Total Goals
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

      Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Opponent-adjusted xG: Rayo 1.37 for / 1.75 against; Elche 1.09 / 1.33; gp_with_xg is 10 for both.
      • only the 2.5 total rung is listed; no adjacent rungs or ProphetX BTTS market appeared.
      • Both XIs are expected, not confirmed; the current projections were last refreshed at 2:21 AM PDT.
    5. Rayo Vallecano spread NO above 2.5 goalsFavorite
      +15%Won

      Taken at 87¢ on Kalshi

      HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Inputs: Rayo oppadj xGF/xGA 1.37/1.75; Elche 1.09/1.33; DC lambdas 1.35/1.42, with 10 prior matches each.
      • Current-season La Liga distribution is lumpy: 0/1/2 goal margins are 28.9%/20.0%/6.7%; 3+ is 15/90 (16.7%).
      • Expected, not confirmed, lineups could shift Rayo's scoring outlook after late personnel news.

    Questions

    Who won Elche vs. Rayo Vallecano?

    Elche won 3-0 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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