FinalEstadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán · Sevilla
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| OSAS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SEVI | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSevilla to win 51¢
Sharp Cohort SoccerUp 12% return this season · 10 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-16 on this game · −88% return
- Total goals over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsEarly Whistle, Two Nil +1Why 3 models like it
Early Whistle- Opponent-adjusted blend gives Sevilla 1.24 and Osasuna 1.51 expected goals; total 2.75.
- Warehouse Dixon-Coles rates are 1.13/1.68, total 2.81, with model over-2.5 probability 53.3%.
- Expected lineups are not official and were last refreshed October 22; a late Budimir or goalkeeper change matters.
Two Nil- Opponent-adjusted xG gives Sevilla 1.24 and Osasuna 1.51 expected goals: 2.75 total.
- PPDA 12.28/12.74 and field tilt .476/.456 suggest neither side is an extreme low-tempo profile; secondary support only.
- Only nine xG matches per side, below the desk's 12-match top-band threshold; the projection may be noisy.
Deep Book- Model support is modest and features are computed through 2026-10-18; one early goalless phase can dominate.
- Over 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTwo Nil Pairs, Long Tail PairsWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil Pairs- Opponent-adjusted xG supports the shape: Sevilla home 1.29 for / 1.42 against; Osasuna away 1.59 for / 1.19 against.
- Two or fewer regular-time goals loses; the model edge is modest around a 2.81-goal expectation, so 0-0, 1-0, and 1-1 remain live.
Long Tail Pairs- Jagoba Arrasate's first away game back; preview expects continuity, not a defensive reshuffle.
- Osasuna directness ratio is 0.87 with 41.7% of goals from set pieces; Sevilla home xGA is 1.62.
- Official XIs are absent; expected projections are dated 10/22 and 10/24, so attacking personnel can change.
- Both Teams To Score−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsBoth Nets, Both Sides DangerousWhy 2 models like it
Both Nets- Sevilla scores ~69.6%; Osasuna scores ~80.0%, using opponent-adjusted xGF matched to opponent xGA.
- Asymmetric YES case: Osasuna is the stronger attacker against leaky Sevilla; Sevilla still clears a roughly 70% scoring read.
- The 55.7% projection is about 9 points above the sharp-reference probability, so model miss is substantial.
Both Sides Dangerous- Opponent-adjusted xGA is 1.42 for Sevilla and 1.19 for Osasuna, with keeper goals prevented negative for both sides (-0.54, -0.75).
- Recent shot output is balanced: Sevilla 10.3 shots/4.1 on target and Osasuna 10.7/4.4 over 10 matches.
- Both XIs are expected, not official; the projected keepers are Odysseas Vlachodimos and Aitor Fernández.
- Total corners 7+−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Corner FlagDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 6.0 rolling-corner base reduced to a 4.7 final mean after live pace and 1-0 state.
- Territory is balanced (.485/.465 tilt); Osasuna directness is higher (.870 vs .702), but both PPDA values are 12.2.
- Osasuna has 58% live possession and can generate late pressure despite Sevilla leading 1-0.
- Sevilla vs Osasuna over 2.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US
EV & Line Value Multi-Sport ScannerDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Expected goals total 2.81: Sevilla 1.13, Osasuna 1.68.
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors a higher-event profile: Osasuna 1.59 for and Sevilla 1.42 against.
- Model features are stale through 2026-10-18, so the gap may be model error rather than value.
- Osasuna +0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- confirmed 12:00 PM XI: Sevilla's current attacking starters rate 1.97 xG versus a 2.15 usual-XI baseline, a -0.18 delta.
- Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega is absent: six-match form shows 0.69 xG in 323 minutes, 6.89 rating, and roughly 0.19 xG per 90.
- Osasuna's confirmed attacking XI is essentially at baseline: 2.67 current xG versus 2.67 usual-XI xG; Budimir starts after 3.49 xG and five goals in six matches.
- Osasuna also lists Romain Del Castillo and Aimar Oroz out, so its unchanged aggregate XI quality may hide tactical or depth effects.
Show all 13 picks
- Osasuna 2-way to win−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XI divergence: Sevilla starters' attacking-XI xG is 1.97 versus a 2.15 usual-XI baseline (-0.18); Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega is out after 6 appearances, 323 minutes, 6.89 rating.
- Osasuna's confirmed attacking XI is at 2.67 xG versus its 2.67 baseline; Ante Budimir starts after 5 goals and 3.49 xG in his six-match form sample.
- This is a 2-way moneyline: a draw is a loss, unlike the separate 90-minute three-way contract.
- Osasuna win−100%Lost
Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle home price moved from -122 to -107; Kalshi Sevilla fell 53.5c to 50.5c, both moving toward Osasuna.
- The projection-versus-market gap exceeds 15 points, raising model-miss or missing-information risk.
- CA Osasuna wins 2-1−100%Lost
Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days - Sevilla to win+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
Sharp Cohort SoccerUp 46% last 7 days - Osasuna to win−100%Lost
Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Osasuna 1.59 to 1.29; Osasuna's away xG is 1.53.
- Confirmed lineups show Ante Budimir starting for Osasuna; the starting-XI attacking xG edge is 2.67 to 1.97.
- The fitted model's feature snapshot runs through October 18, so late form or information may be underweighted.
- Osasuna spread +0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XIs posted at 12:22 PM PDT; both teams have 8 rest days, with no artificial surface or confirmed aggregate state to add a Long Haul adjustment.
- Pinnacle shows the same -0.5/+0.5 spread around -106/-102; ProphetX offers the away side at +100.
- Most likely loss: Sevilla wins; my adjusted win estimate is 66%, leaving substantial ordinary soccer variance.
- Osasuna spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 7¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles inputs are lambda_home 1.13 and lambda_away 1.68; the independent low-score cross-check puts Osasuna at roughly 27% to win by 2+.
- Opposition-adjusted scoring cross-checks are about 1.24 Sevilla and 1.51 Osasuna goals, putting the same event near 22%; current La Liga distribution is 14/98 (14.3%) for away margins of 2+.
- Osasuna has cleared a 1.5-goal winning margin in 0 of its 9 current-season league fixtures; the 14/98 league-wide sample is broader and noisy.
Questions
Who won Osasuna vs. Sevilla?
Sevilla won 2-0 on Monday, Oct 26, 2026.