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FinalAnoeta Stadium · San Sebastián
Levante
1–2Final
Real Sociedad
Score by period
Team12T
LEV101
RS202

Top model pick, graded

Won

Both teams to score 63¢

Why Both Sides Dangerous likes it: Model BTTS probability 69.9% versus Novig Yes at 63¢; roughly 7 points above the market.

Both Sides DangerousUp 3% return this season · 152 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-6 on this game · −24% return

  1. Both teams to score2 models agree
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Novig

    2 modelsBoth Sides Dangerous, Both Nets
    Why 2 models like it
    Both Sides Dangerous
    • Model BTTS probability 69.9% versus Novig Yes at 63¢; roughly 7 points above the market.
    • Opponent-adjusted xGF is 1.39 for Sociedad and 1.56 for Levante.
    • Both XIs remain expected rather than official, with no confirmed starting eleven yet.
    Both Nets
    • no independent sharp BTTS sportsbook price was posted; Kalshi is the actionable venue. Edge class PROJECTION; band LEAN.
    • The Dixon-Coles cross-check is materially higher than the per-side read, so the estimate is not fully coherent.
  2. total goals under 3.52 models agree
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsRegression Pairs, Two Nil
    Why 2 models like it
    Regression Pairs
    • Pinnacle's total was 3.25; ProphetX offers under 3.5 at -126.
    • Real Sociedad scored 24/10 (2.40) versus 1.40 xG: +1.00 goals per match.
    • Four or more goals beats the ticket; persistent Real Sociedad finishing is the clearest loss path.
    Two Nil
    • Opp-adjusted xG blend: Real Sociedad expected 1.53 (home xGF 1.39, Levante xGA 1.68); Levante expected 1.62 (away xGF 1.56, Real Sociedad xGA 1.67); total 3.15.
    • The ladder implies roughly 3.4, 3.5 goals, above the 3.15 xG estimate; Pinnacle's independent total is 3.2, but not the same rung, so it is context only.
    • Only 10 xG matches per side; early-season samples can move materially with one unusual result.
  3. Match total over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +105 on BetMGM

    Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matarazzo has shifted Real Sociedad toward direct, aggressive vertical football with tempo and intensity.
    • Castro's Levante uses a low-intensity narrow mid-block, forces opponents wide, and attacks via quick wide service.
    • Real Sociedad's confirmed attack includes Oyarzabal and Óskarsson; the team has 24 goals across its last 10 feature matches.
    • Levante's narrow mid-block can suppress central chances; 3.5 requires at least four goals.
  4. Over 1.5 1H goals scored NO
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Half LightDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-match ladder mean is 3.33 goals; fitted 2H ladder mean is approximately 2.01.
    • Additivity plus the measured 36.5% La Liga first-half share reconciles 1H mean near 1.22, not the quoted 1H mean near 1.52.
    • Quoted 1H Over 1.5 is 44.5%; reconciled Over 1.5 is approximately 34.5%, a 10-point structural gap.
    • The 36-fixture sample has 104 goals but four fixtures lacked event rows; the 36.5% split is noisy.
  5. Levante wins 1st HalfLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 19¢ on Kalshi

    Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Venue coherence fails: Levante 1H is 18.5¢ versus 17.5¢ full-time, although a 1H win must be less likely.
    • Confirmed XI. Levante's away lambda is 1.93 versus Real Sociedad's home 1.68; coverage is 10 matches per side.
    • Real Sociedad remains the full-time market favorite at 62.5%; the warehouse model could be misspecified.
  6. Levante UD wins 2-1Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Orientation: home is Real Sociedad; model key 1-2 is the contract “Levante UD wins 2-1.”
    • Coverage is sound: 10 matches with xG for each team; the screened live-subset sum is 0.65.
    • The model's mass is concentrated in 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3, 0-2; 1-2 is the only screened RECOMMENDED rung.
    • Correct score is high variance and the model top-k is truncated.
Show all 9 picks
  1. Levante to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +460 on FanDuel

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Warehouse model gives Levante a 43.9% away-win probability versus FanDuel's 17.9% implied price.
    • Model expected goals favor Levante 1.93, 1.68 despite Real Sociedad's home designation.
    • Levante's opponent-adjusted attacking xG is 1.56 per match, above Real Sociedad's 1.39.
    • Market strongly disagrees: Real Sociedad is a -185 favorite and Levante are only 2-4-4 away.
  2. Real Sociedad spread under 1.5
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles lambdas are 1.67 home / 1.93 away; model estimates Real Sociedad 2+ margin near 24.6%.
    • 94 current-season La Liga matches show Real Sociedad-style +2-or-more margin at 22.3%, below Kalshi YES pricing.
    • Expected lineups remain unconfirmed; both teams have substantial listed absences and the feature model may miss late XI changes.
  3. Levante moneyline +425Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +425 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own fair probability 38%; fair line approximately +163 versus DraftKings +425.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG favors Levante's attack, 1.56 to Real Sociedad's 1.39.
    • Warehouse Dixon-Coles model makes Levante the winner 43.9%, directionally confirming the xG blend.
    • Real Sociedad are 6-2-2 at home with a +9 goal difference; Levante are 2-4-4 away with a -3 goal difference.

Questions

Who won Levante vs. Real Sociedad?

Real Sociedad won 2-1 on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026.

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