FinalEstadio El Sadar · Pamplona
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| RS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OSAS | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOsasuna to win 49¢
Why Coaches Corner likes it: Arrasate has returned for his first match after Ramis was dismissed, restoring a coach-specific home tactical setup.
Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 8-5 on this game · +56% return
- Osasuna to win+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsCoaches Corner, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Coaches Corner- Arrasate has returned for his first match after Ramis was dismissed, restoring a coach-specific home tactical setup.
- Preview has Osasuna's direct 4-1-4-1 crossing approach facing Racing's aggressive 4-2-3-1 short-passing shape.
- Osasuna are 0-4-1 in their last five with a -2.4 per-game margin; the model may be slow to reflect that decline.
Number Earned- Model xG is Osasuna 2.12 versus Racing Santander 1.34, with Racing allowing 2.10 away xGA per match.
- A modeled 21.7% draw probability is the primary failure mode for a 3-way moneyline.
- Osasuna spread −0.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsHalf Goal Pairs, Fair Price PairsWhy 2 models like it
Half Goal Pairs- Confirmed XI gate passed: the live lineup lists 11 starters for both Osasuna and Racing Santander.
- Osasuna's home form is 2-2-6 with 9 goals scored and 21 conceded across 10 matches.
Fair Price Pairs- Lambda grid uses Osasuna 2.12, Racing Santander 1.34, and dc_rho -0.05 for the regular-time margin.
- Pinnacle context is Osasuna -0.5 +103; placement is ProphetX only.
- The thinner side has only 8 xG matches, so model error can exceed the 6.46-point gap.
- Over 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTwo Nil Pairs, Snapp Decision of the DayWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil Pairs- The warehouse Dixon-Coles model makes over 2.5 a 67.1% outcome; ProphetX -140 is 58.33c implied, an 8.8-point projection gap.
- No BTTS-shaped market appeared on this event's ProphetX board; the board listed only the main 2.5 total rung, so there is no adjacent-rung self-reference tonight.
- The principal loss paths are 3+ goals being avoided: 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, and 1-1 all stay under 2.5.
Snapp Decision of the Day- 64.5% personal probability for over 2.5 goals versus ProphetX's 58.68¢ price.
- Model expected goals total 3.46; Osasuna and Racing Santander allow 1.14 and 2.10 expected goals per match in this preview.
- The model is a fitted pregame estimate, not a market-independent forecast, and its features are current only through October 11.
- Total goals over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsTwo Nil, Deep BookWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil- Opp-adjusted xG blends project Osasuna 1.71 and Racing Santander 1.34, for 3.06 expected goals.
- Raw Kalshi field 0.58 is already a fraction probability, not cents; quoted contract price is 58c.
- No same-rung independent sharp reference: Pinnacle posts 2.75, not 2.5; this is venue self-reference.
Deep Book- REFERENCE. Board as_of_pt 2026-10-18 4:22:33 AM PDT; over held 57.98, 59.68¢ in the history window.
- Most likely loss: 0, 2 total goals; 2.5 has no push.
- Osasuna −1.5+270%Won
Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The -1.5 rung tests the lumpy 2-goal boundary: it wins only at margins +2 or greater and cannot push.
- Osasuna's sidelined feed lists Romain Del Castillo, Raul Moro, Aimar Oroz and Jorge Herrando; final lineups are unconfirmed.
- Match total goals over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX
Bench BossDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- confirmed XI shape is Osasuna 4-3-3 against Racing's 4-5-1, with both coaches deploying multiple advanced players.
- Osasuna's directness ratio is 0.82; Racing's is 0.53, while recent shots average 11.1 and 11.5 per match.
- The most likely loss is a 1-0 or 1-1 match if Racing's five-man midfield suppresses Osasuna's final-third entries.
Show all 9 picks
- Both Teams To Score NO+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Live state is 1-0 at 35': Osasuna has already scored, while Racing's remaining scoring probability is about 55% from 1.31 xGF versus Osasuna's 1.28 xGA, scaled to 55 minutes.
- Case type is not the classic weak-attacker versus elite-defense asymmetry; it is a live conditional projection after an early Osasuna penalty, with only Racing's goal now needed.
- live Pinnacle BTTS prices were YES -161 / NO +140, approximately 40.3% devigged for NO versus Kalshi's 39¢; edge class PROJECTION, Exploratory band.
- The 55% residual estimate is a simple time-scaled xG read, not a live in-play xG model; game state and tactics can change scoring rates.
- Osasuna −0.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Osasuna's lambda is 2.12 versus Racing Santander's 1.34; opponent-adjusted xG differential is +0.19 versus -0.54.
- Both XIs are posted; model coverage is complete with form, xG, ratings, and model probabilities, and min_gp_with_xg is 8.
- This is explicitly off-thesis: travel is unrecorded, rest is level at 7 days, the surface is grass, and no aggregate-state signal is confirmed.
- Osasuna wins by more than 1.5 goals+285%Won
Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Independent-Poisson cross-check gives Osasuna margin ≥2 at 33.6%; Dixon-Coles Osasuna -0.5 AH probability is 55.0%.
- 2026 La Liga empirical check: home margin ≥2 occurred 66/291 times (22.7%); used as a shrinkage cross-check, not a rung substitute.
- No independent sharp quote exists at the exact 1.5 rung, so the Kalshi venue may already be correctly priced; self-reference caps this at LEAN.
Questions
Who won Racing Santander vs. Osasuna?
Osasuna won 2-0 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.