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FinalColiseum Alfonso Pérez · Getafe
Rayo Vallecano
1–1Final
Getafe
Score by period
Team12T
RAYO101
GETA011

Top model pick, graded

Won

Both Teams To Score 44¢

Why Both Nets likes it: Projection: Getafe scoring read 76.5% from λ≈1.45, combining home opp-adjusted xGF 1.05 with Rayo xGA 1.84.

Both NetsDown 6% this season · 589 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 2-11 on this game · −66% return

  1. Total goals over 2.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsTwo Nil, XI Delta +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Two Nil
    • Getafe home opp-adjusted xGF 1.05 plus Rayo away opp-adjusted xGA 1.75; 10 xG matches each.
    • Rayo away opp-adjusted xGF 1.31 plus Getafe home opp-adjusted xGA 1.38; 10 xG matches each.
    • Only 10 xG matches per side, below the desk’s preferred 12-match tier; the 0.74-goal gap could reflect model error.
    XI Delta
    • Feature lambdas total 2.70 goals (1.36 Getafe, 1.33 Rayo), with both current attacking groups largely intact.
    • Rayo's Camello, García and de Frutos each made at least three prior-five starts; Getafe starts Enes Ünal and Satriano.
    • The broader captured board strongly favors under 2.5; the model may be miscalibrated against this league's scoring environment.
    Team Sheet Pairs
    • confirmed-XI attacking xG is 1.18 for Getafe plus 1.78 for Rayo (2.96 total), up 0.69 from 2.28 pre-lineup expected goals.
    • Sergio Camello starts for Rayo with 0.59 xG/90; Martín Satriano starts for Getafe with 0.32 xG/90.
    • Most likely loss: Getafe and Rayo finish with 0-2 goals; ProphetX under 2.5 is -215.
  2. Both Teams To Score2 models agree
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsBoth Nets, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Both Nets
    • Projection: Getafe scoring read 76.5% from λ≈1.45, combining home opp-adjusted xGF 1.05 with Rayo xGA 1.84.
    • Projection: Rayo scoring read 73.8% from λ≈1.34, combining away opp-adjusted xGF 1.31 with Getafe xGA 1.37.
    • The product assumes scoring events are sufficiently independent; a slow derby-style game can break that estimate.
    Number Earned
    • Warehouse model gives BTTS 55.5%; fair price about -124 versus DraftKings +120.
    • Model expected goals are 1.36 for Getafe and 1.33 for Rayo, producing a 2.70-goal combined baseline.
    • The four-match head-to-head sample averages only 1.25 total goals and BTTS occurred once.
  3. Getafe to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on Novig

    2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Model expected goals are nearly even: Getafe 1.36, Rayo Vallecano 1.34.
    • Getafe's home-side record has produced 20 points in 10 matches; Rayo's away-side total is 11 points in 10.
    • Three Getafe players and eight Rayo players are listed sidelined; both starting elevens are only partially confirmed.
    Number Earned
    • Warehouse model gives Getafe 37.2%; fair line about +169 versus DraftKings +205.
    • Getafe's home model xG is 1.36 against Rayo's away 1.33, essentially level despite the price gap.
    • Rayo rates 83.6 Elo points higher and has the stronger SPI profile.
  4. Getafe −1.5 regular-time spreadLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 12¢ on ProphetX

    Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles build: λ Getafe 1.36, λ Rayo 1.33, ρ -0.05 gives Getafe by 2+ about 17.3%.
    • FanDuel exact -1.5 +700 and Rayo +1.5 -1450 devig to about 11.8%; model is 5.5 points higher.
    • Directional check passes narrowly on home scoring rate and home advantage; no confirmed XI means medium conviction.
    • Getafe have zero wins by 2+ in their last 10 La Liga matches; Rayo have only one in their last 10.
  5. Match total goals over 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX

    Bench BossDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed 4-3-3 Rayo press (9.70 PPDA) meets Getafe's 4-4-2 and directness ratio of 0.91.
    • Rayo's away expected-goals-against rate is 1.84 across 10 matches; Getafe's direct outlets can bypass the press into transition chances.
    • Most likely loss: Getafe's 14.21 PPDA slows the match into a 0-0, 1-0, or 1-1.
  6. Rayo Vallecano −1.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 14¢ on ProphetX

    Standing OrderDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rayo flow repeats on -0.5 (7.3x) and 90-minute YES (5.9x); three markets point toward Rayo.
    • Board as of 2026-10-19 9:14:39 AM PT. Band: RECOMMENDED.
    • The sharp reference supports Rayo to win, not specifically a two-goal margin.
Show all 9 picks
  1. Over 2.5 Total Goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted xG supports the higher total: Getafe home 1.05 for / 1.38 against; Rayo away 1.31 for / 1.75 against.
    • No BTTS-shaped market appeared on the complete ProphetX event board; this is totals-only.
    • Starting XIs are not posted; a late striker rest decision or goalkeeper change could move the fitted lambdas.
  2. Getafe spread −0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX

    Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 days
  3. Getafe spread over 1.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 11¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Band: LEAN; named edge class: PROJECTION.
    • Getafe has only 4 rest days versus Rayo Vallecano's 30, a clear contextual drag on a multi-goal home win.

Questions

Who won Rayo Vallecano vs. Getafe?

Getafe won 1-1 on Monday, Oct 19, 2026.

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