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FinalTropicana Field
Yankees93-68
0–1Final
Rays98-64
Score by period
Team123456789T
NYY0000000000
TB00100000–1

Top model pick, graded

Won

Drew Rasmussen over 16.5 outs recorded −118

Why MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model likes it: Model projects 17.8 outs: 65% clear probability versus 16.5, a 1.3-out edge.

MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 12% return this season · 78 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 24-20 on this game · +2% return

  1. Game total under 74 models agree
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on BetMGM

    4 modelsThe Core 6 Independent Syndicate, House Rules +2
    Why 4 models like it
    The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    • Independent cash estimate 55%; fair price approximately -122 versus BetMGM -110.
    • Season expected pitching: Cole 3.78 xERA/.300 xwOBA allowed; Rasmussen 3.06/.271.
    • Cole's last-five ERA is 5.08 with a 1.20 WHIP, a clear recent-form threat.
    House Rules
    • Under 7 pushes at exactly 7; adjacent under 6.5 loses at 7.
    • Odds are nonlinear; the adjacent half-run price need not map one-for-one to the whole-run push probability.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Rasmussen xFIP 2.87 and Cole xFIP 2.86 point to a controlled starting-pitching run environment.
    • Rays' right-handed split is .3133 xwOBA; the Yankees are .3255 versus righties, limiting the case for an explosive combined offense.
    • Seven total runs is a push, not a win; the whole-number rung reduces payout efficiency.
    Deep Book
    • Pinnacle reference is 7 runs, under -108 versus over -104. Direction agrees, but this remains LEAN.
    • Gates passed: Cole and Rasmussen posted; both lineups observed at 2:50 PM; Yankees bullpen 3.0 IP and Rays bullpen 0.0 IP over three days.
    • The 7.3x ratio is below the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold. Half-size LEAN.
  2. New York Yankees to win4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsProphetX Pairs, Fade Stephen A. Smith +2
    Why 4 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • my offense/form handicap makes the Yankees 47% to win; ProphetX prices them at 44.25c (+126).
    • Yankees posted lineup leads Rays vs right-handers in 2026 xwOBA, .3255 to .3133.
    • Gerrit Cole's 2026 ERA is 3.61 and his last-five ERA is 5.08; Tampa can win if that recent form dominates.
    Fade Stephen A. Smith
    • Oct. 2 Yahoo report quotes Stephen A.: “He seems to got their number. I ain’t excited about this brother. I’m worried about that.”
    • The concern is specifically about ALDS Game 1, not a season-long narrative.
    • “Worried” is not an explicit Rays pick, making this weaker than a declared winner prediction.
    Underdawg
    • +118 clears the +100 to +160 underdog price gate.
    • Cole 2.86 xFIP vs Rasmussen 2.87: essentially even, with the underdog starter marginally better.
    • Rays own the better season record, 98-64 versus 93-68, and a stronger season run-prevention profile.
    Resting Money
    • Book_levels are Yankees 3 versus Rays 3; the two core measures agree, while levels are neutral. Backing New York Yankees, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The third measure does not corroborate: both sides have 3 book_levels.
  3. Gerrit Cole under 4.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +112 on DraftKings

    2 modelsK-Zone Fade, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    K-Zone Fade
    • Cole's L5 K/9 is 8.26 versus 9.28 for the season; the recent decline supports the under.
    • DraftKings offers +112, better than FanDuel +102 and BetMGM +105 on the same 4.5 line.
    • Cole's L3 K/9 is 10.12, so the freshest three-start sample points the other way.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated true under probability 55%; +7.8 percentage points versus +112 break-even 47.2%.
    • Cole's recent K rate has softened: 8.26 K/9 over his last five versus 9.28 season-long.
    • A small number of high-leverage two-strike counts or extra plate appearances can push him to five.
  4. Tampa Bay Rays first-five to win2 models agree
    +69%Won

    Taken at −145 on FanDuel

    2 modelshigh-confidence main markets, MLB Default Picks
    Why 2 models like it
    high-confidence main markets
    • 62% independent first-five win estimate; fair price about -163 versus FanDuel -145.
    • Drew Rasmussen: 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 3.06 xERA across 172 innings.
    • Rays' .3133 xwOBA versus right-handers trails New York's .3255; the Yankees have more power.
    MLB Default Picks
    • Live F5 anchor: Rays 56.7% devig median across FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM; fair price -131.
    • Ledger +1 point Rays: Rasmussen’s .271 xwOBA allowed beats Cole’s .300; Yankees’ platoon edge is offset by Judge’s absence.
    • FanDuel -145 requires 59.2%; model is 57.7%, a -1.5-point edge.
  5. Tampa Bay Rays to win2 models agree
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDeep Book, Fade the Arm
    Why 2 models like it
    Deep Book
    • Projection: Drew Rasmussen 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 3.06 xERA versus Gerrit Cole 3.61, 1.10, 3.78; Tampa Bay bullpen used 0.0 innings in three days versus 3.0 for New York.
    • Related boards lean Rays: Rays -1 carries $3,190 versus $1,797 on Yankees +1; Pinnacle reference is Rays -129.
    • Run-line imbalance is only 1.8x. Total-under flow is 3.4x at 7 runs but is depth-heavy; corroboration is directional, not uniform.
    Fade the Arm
    • Cole's 2026 ERA is 3.61 versus 5.06 across his last three starts and 5.08 across his last five; K/9 fell from 9.28 season to 8.26 L5.
    • Cole's fastball averaged 95.91 mph in his latest start versus a 96.73 mph season baseline; TTO4 xwOBA is .3272.
    • Cole's 2.86 xFIP and 3.78 xERA remain stronger than his recent ERA, so regression could erase the vulnerability read.
  6. New York Yankees +1.52 models agree
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsLedger Balance, Selective Pressure
    Why 2 models like it
    Ledger Balance
    • Live anchors imply a low-scoring Tampa favorite: TB moneyline 59¢ and under 6.5 at 56.5¢.
    • Fitting the 2023-25 empirical scoring shape, 8.96 mean, 8 median, +0.73 skew, to those anchors puts NYY +1.5 near 66-67%.
    • The game is already live at 0-0 in the top of the second; a sudden scoring or pitching change can invalidate the anchor fit.
    Selective Pressure
    • Own cover estimate 66.5%, above ProphetX's 64.54¢ cost.
    • Yankees are 4-1 with +2.6 runs/game over their last five; Tampa Bay is 2-3.
    • Rasmussen owns a 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 3.06 xERA, a real Rays starting-pitcher edge.
Show all 35 picks
  1. New York Yankees −5.5Long shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +1060 on FanDuel

    Iron HorseDown 20% over 65 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Yankees enter 4-1 over their last five, averaging a +2.6 scoring margin.
    • Gerrit Cole is confirmed: 3.61 ERA, 9.28 K/9, and 28.33 innings across his last five.
    • New York owns the sharper recent form despite Tampa Bay's stronger 98-64 full-season record.
    • The ticket requires New York to win by six or more runs, an extreme outcome.
  2. Cody Bellinger HRR YES 0.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 66¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatDown 100% last 7 days
  3. New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays over 0.5 first-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +106 on FanDuel

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 8% over 127 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 51.6% baseline YRFI: combined first-inning scoreless rates imply 1 - .6707×.7212.
    • Top 1-4 orders confirmed; their wOBA ranges from .326-.388, with power throughout both groups.
    • Cole allowed 7 first-inning homers in 83 PA; Rasmussen allowed 4 in 113 PA this season.
    • Both starters have strong 2026 xwOBA allowed: Rasmussen .271 and Cole .300.
  4. Drew Rasmussen over 16.5 outs recorded
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 17.8 outs: 65% clear probability versus 16.5, a 1.3-out edge.
    • Last five starts averaged 19.0 outs and 95.2 pitches; Rasmussen cleared 16.5 in four of five.
    • Projected outs distribution: 7% at 12-or-fewer, 25% at 15, 3% at 16, 29% at 18, 8% at 20, 28% at 21.
    • Tampa Bay used zero relief innings and zero pitches over the prior three days; a fresh bullpen can shorten Rasmussen.
  5. First inning over 0.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi raw yes_ask is 0.45, a fraction regime, so the executable quote is 45¢; the derived reference is 6.7 points higher.
    • Posted lineup confirms Rice/Bellinger/García and Díaz/Aranda/Caminero atop the orders; current xwOBA averages are .354 and .351.
    • Rasmussen and Cole are verified starters; their first-inning BA is .1776/.1688, but the offense-specific model still clears RFI.
    • Starter first-inning samples are only 22 and 30 games, despite 83 and 113 tracked first-inning PA.
  6. Gerrit Cole over 16.5 pitching outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −135 on BetMGM

    Pitchin outsUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent estimate: 68% to clear 16.5 outs versus 57.4% break-even at -135.
    • Cole cleared 16.5 outs in 9 of his last 10 starts; L10 mean was 17.7 outs.
    • His last five starts averaged 17.0 outs, with 4 of 5 clearing the line.
    • The L5 sample is modest; Cole had a 13-out start in the last five.
  7. Tampa Bay Rays spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US

    Run and a HalfUp 223% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle lists Tampa Bay -1.5 at +166; its direction supports the Polymarket US price.
    • 369 recent finals show a 28.7% one-run margin rate; the fitted game distribution assigns 14.6% to Tampa Bay winning by exactly one, below the venue-implied 19.0%.
    • Tampa Bay's Rasmussen has a 3.06 xERA versus Cole's 3.78; Tampa Bay's bullpen has 0.0 IP/0 pitches over three days versus New York's 3.0 IP/44 pitches.
    • The 4.4-point model gap is estimated from bucket frequencies, not a full conditional run-margin model; sampling error can dominate.
  8. Full game total under 6.5
    +116%Won

    Taken at +116 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 106% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sharp reference is 7; FanDuel still hangs 6.5 at plus money while the low-run structure remains intact.
    • Bullpens are rested on Tampa Bay’s side (0 pitches/3d) and only 44 pitches/3d for New York; umpire average total is 8.61.
    • M-factors: Cash 0.0 hyper-aggressive, Boone 1.0 middle ground; no verified decay, so no leash or inverse-SGP gate. Burn believability: medium.
    • 6.5 is a thin number; one additional run loses, with no push protection.
  9. Game total under 7 runs
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Selective PressureUp 78% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected xERA is 6.84 combined: Cole 3.78, Rasmussen 3.06.
    • Both bullpens show 0.0 innings and 0 pitches over the last three days.
    • Tropicana Field is a dome with no weather-wind volatility; the under 7 has push protection.
    • The Yankees' .3255 xwOBA versus right-handers gives them a credible path to a crooked inning.
  10. Total Runs Under 7
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Under CurrentDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both starters are confirmed; neither is on the active IL, and both bullpens had zero back-to-back relievers.
    • Confirmed lineups include Judge on the IL; Yankees project weaker than their season baseline against Rasmussen's right-handed mix.
    • The Yankees lineup still carries .3255 xwOBA versus right-handers, and Tropicana's HR factor is 112.
  11. Gerrit Cole over 16.5 pitcher outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −136 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B): qualifies at 70+ with positive model edge.
    • 15 of 22 season starts cleared 16.5 outs (68.2%); last 10 cleared 8 of 10 (80%).
    • Blended workload projection is 17.6 outs, 6.6% above the 16.5 line; estimated 64% probability versus 57.6% break-even.
    • Last-five hit rate is only 3 of 5 (60%), with a modest 17.0-out average.
  12. Tampa Bay Rays run line −1
    0%Push

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quotes Rays -1 at +119 (45.66¢) versus its adjacent Rays -1.5 at +174 (36.50¢).
    • The 9.16-point implied-price gap is smaller than the observed one-run home-margin mass; the whole rung retains the refund option.
    • Starting pitchers are confirmed as Gerrit Cole and Drew Rasmussen, but late lineup or game-status changes could alter the distribution.
  13. Game total under 6.5
    +116%Won

    Taken at +116 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 6.4 runs; fair total line 6.5; Under 6.5 win probability 53.6%; push probability 0.0% (release timestamp 5:00 PM CDT).
    • Rasmussen: 2.67 ERA, 2.80 FIP, .271 xwOBA allowed, and 9.1 K/9; Cole: 3.61 ERA with 2.86 xFIP.
    • Both bullpens logged 0.0 innings and 0 pitches in the prior three days; late-inning availability is unusually clean.
    • The Yankees' right-handed-opponent lineup owns a .3255 xwOBA, and Tampa Bay's is .3133; either offense can break the projection.
  14. Trent Grisham under 0.5 hits
    +96%Won

    Taken at −104 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last 10 appearances: 3 hit games, 4 total hits; under cashed 7 of 10.
    • Recent average is .100 over the last 7 and .0909 over the last 14.
    • DraftKings -104 implies roughly 51%; the recent under rate is a 19-point sample gap.
    • The recent sample is only 10 appearances and includes one zero-at-bat appearance.
  15. Drew Rasmussen 17+ recorded outs
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rasmussen averaged 5.73 innings and 88.7 pitches per start in 2026, equivalent to about 17.2 outs.
    • His last five starts averaged 19.0 outs and 95.2 pitches; he reached 17+ outs in 4 of 5.
    • The Rays' bullpen entered fresh: 0.0 innings over the last three days and no reliever back-to-back, which can shorten the leash.
  16. Game extra inningsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 11¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup means are modest: Yankees/Rasmussen xwOBA inputs .3255/.271 and Rays/Cole .3133/.300, modeled at roughly 3.15 and 2.95 runs.
    • Tropicana's 98 run factor, dome and zero wind compress the environment toward low, tightly clustered scores.
    • No reliever was on a back-to-back; Rays had 0.0 bullpen innings and Yankees 3.0 in the prior three days, supporting a close late game.
    • Poisson-like modeling understates MLB overdispersion; one homer or crooked inning can destroy the tie distribution.
  17. Tampa Bay Rays run line +1.5Favorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmUp 79% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Gerrit Cole's recent ERA is 5.06 over his last 3 starts and 5.08 over his last 5, versus 3.61 season-long.
    • Cole's latest recorded fastball averaged 95.91 mph versus a 96.73 mph season baseline; TTO4 xwOBA allowed is .3272 versus .3169 TTO1.
    • Confirmed lineup: all nine Rays starters were posted at 2:50 PM PDT, and Rasmussen and Cole are both confirmed starters and off the active IL.
    • The Yankees bullpen is rested at zero pitches over the last three days; if Cole exits early, that limits the fade's runway.
  18. Game total over 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBDown 100% last 7 days
  19. Junior Caminero 2+ total bases
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Gerrit Cole has allowed 22 HR in 127 IP, with a 1.56 HR/9 and .131 HR/FB rate.
    • Tropicana Field's 112 HR park factor supports extra-base power; dome conditions mean no wind-in penalty.
    • The sharp-reference gap is only about 1.4 percentage points before venue costs.
  20. Gerrit Cole over 4.5 strikeouts
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Slate K Model · Sharp Reference LayerUp 19% over 36 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Sharp Pinnacle 5.5-K anchor (+157/-193) de-vigs to 37.2% for 6+ strikeouts.
    • Posted nine-man lineup plus Cole/Rays matchup inputs produce a 24-BF Poisson-binomial baseline.
    • Exponential tilt to the sharp 6+ probability gives 57.2% for 5+ strikeouts (fair price about -134).
    • The distribution is constructed from season platoon K rates and expected batters faced, not a fully calibrated proprietary simulator.
  21. Drew Rasmussen under 5.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +125 on BetMGM

    K’sDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model centers Rasmussen near 6.0 Ks; a Poisson/empirical blend gives roughly 51% for 5 or fewer.
    • His last 10 starts produced 5 or fewer Ks in 6 of 10; removing the 11-K outlier improves the under case.
    • Rasmussen has 11 days' rest, no IL flag, 5.73 season IP/start, and BetMGM offers +125 versus a 44.4% break-even rate.
    • The projected mean is close to the 5.5 threshold; ordinary variance can produce six Ks.
  22. Gerrit Cole over 4.5 hits allowed
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Starter Stress TestUp 105% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rays' 2026 wRC+ is 105.3, clearing the 105 fallback; they score 4.54 runs per game.
    • Cole's last-three-start ERA is 5.06 versus a 3.61 season baseline.
    • Cole allowed 3, 4, and 9 hits in his last three starts; 5.33 average versus 5.23 season-start average.
    • Rays' implied team total is only 3.5, below the 4.5-run target.
  23. New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays first-five drawLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 18¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US anchors imply a tight, low-scoring game: Rays win about 55% and over 6.5 about 56%.
    • The 2026 regular-season scoring shape has an 8-run median; fitting its lower tail to the 6.5 anchor leaves substantial five-inning tie mass.
    • An anchor-fitted five-inning run environment near 3.5 runs with the same slight Rays edge prices the F5 draw around 21, 23%.
    • The five-inning draw estimate is inferred from full-game anchors, not a direct inning-level model.
  24. New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays first five total under 2.5
    +213%Won

    Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor implies roughly 55% Tampa Bay; Polymarket US full-game total implies a low scoring center near 7 runs.
    • Pinnacle's live full-game reference is over 7 at about 49%, independently supporting the low-run anchor.
    • Innings 2-5 over 0.5 quotes are only 42%-46%, consistent with a materially lower F5-over-2.5 probability than 69¢.
    • The exact joint distribution of five innings is unknown; inning-level prices do not determine dependence or multi-run clustering.
  25. Austin Wells over 0.5 hits
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7 hits in his last 10 appearances (70%), clearing the 60% form gate.
    • Posted eighth in the confirmed lineup; the odds feed lists Wells active for this game.
    • Vs. right-handed pitching: .207 average and .327 xwOBA across 296 plate appearances; recent seven-game average is .294.
    • Full-season batting average is only .186, so the recent 10-game surge may regress.
  26. New York Yankees first-five spread +1.5Favorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • F5 Yankees +1.5 is 69¢ versus 64¢ on the full-game +1.5 market; the higher F5 protection is structurally consistent with removing late-inning variance.
    • Both starters were confirmed live: Rasmussen 3.06 xERA/0.91 WHIP and Cole 3.78 xERA/1.10 WHIP.
    • Posted Yankees top-four hitters own .314-.398 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; Tampa Bay's posted top five range from .281-.353.
    • Cole's recent ERA is 5.08 over his last five starts, so early command trouble could produce a two-run Rays lead.
  27. New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays first-five total under 4.5
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rasmussen (3.06 xERA) and Cole (3.78 xERA) are both confirmed, non-stale starters.
    • First-inning BA is .178 for Rasmussen and .169 for Cole; first-inning K rates are 31.9% and 28.9%.
    • Posted top-five RHP lineups average roughly .339 NYY xwOBA and .334 TB xwOBA, making the starter quality the key counterweight.
    • Livensparger's starter-zone fit is negative for both pitchers (-0.01 Rasmussen, -0.01 Cole), potentially reducing called strikes.
  28. Ben Rice 1+ home runLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Polymarket US

    Small BallDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed leadoff hitter; expected roughly 4.3, 4.6 PA against Drew Rasmussen's 88.7-pitch, 5.73-IP regular-season workload.
    • Rice posted a .3977 xwOBA versus right-handers over 453 PA and .3823 season xwOBA, with 41 regular-season HR.
    • Tropicana Field's HR factor is 112; Rasmussen allowed 14 HR in 172 innings, leaving a park-assisted path despite his .271 xwOBA against.
    • Rasmussen's .271 xwOBA-against and 20.8% hard-hit rate are strong run-prevention signals that can overwhelm the park adjustment.
  29. Game total over 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cole's ERA is 5.06 over his last 3 and 5.08 over his last 5, versus 3.61 for the season.
    • Yankees bullpen has thrown 44 pitches in three days; Tampa Bay's bullpen has thrown 0, increasing late-inning over risk.
    • Rasmussen owns a 3.06 xERA and 2.67 ERA, so Tampa can suppress the Yankees early.

Questions

Who won Yankees vs. Rays?

The Rays won 1-0 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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