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FinalTruist Park
Dodgers100-62
4–1Final
Braves94-68
Score by period
Team123456789T
LAD0100002014
ATL1000000001

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tyler Mahle over 13.5 outs recorded −118

Why MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model likes it: 18.4 outs and 93.8 pitches across Mahle's last five regular-season starts; every start cleared 13.5.

MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 12% return this season · 78 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 39-23 on this game · +333% return

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers to win13 models agreeHigh conviction
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    13 modelsDrift, bully ball strategy +11
    Why 13 models like it
    Drift
    • Dodgers run differential +201 and pythagorean .629 versus Atlanta +116 and .577.
    • Glasnow: 2.88 xERA, 2.74 FIP, .263 xwOBA allowed; Mahle: 3.95 xERA, 3.99 FIP.
    • Most likely loss: Atlanta scores early at home against Glasnow and neutralizes the starting-pitching edge.
    bully ball strategy
    • Tyler Glasnow: 2.88 xERA, .263 xwOBA allowed and 11.92 K/9 versus Tyler Mahle's 3.95 xERA, .306 xwOBA and 8.28 K/9.
    • Confirmed Dodgers lineup has .339 team xwOBA versus right-handers versus Atlanta's .323; Dodgers also lead matchup wRC+ quality across the posted nine.
    • Glasnow's recent five-start ERA is 4.30 versus Mahle's 2.35, and Mahle's recent WHIP is slightly better; the season/underlying edge may not carry into this start.
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • 62.5% fair win probability; fair line approximately -167 versus FanDuel -148.
    • Glasnow: 2.88 xERA, .263 xwOBA allowed, 11.92 K/9, and 0.95 WHIP.
    • Mahle's last-five ERA is 2.35 versus Glasnow's 4.30, narrowing the recent-form gap.
    MLB HunterV2
    • Glasnow’s 0.95 WHIP, 11.92 K/9, and 2.88 xERA materially outclass Mahle’s 1.24 WHIP, 8.28 K/9, and 3.95 xERA.
    • Dodgers post a .339 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching versus Atlanta’s .323; Los Angeles is 14-6 over its last 20.
    • Mahle has 149 innings and 10 quality starts, so the starting-pitcher gap may be overstated in one game.
  2. Tyler Glasnow over 6.5 strikeouts7 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    7 modelsK’s, MLB HunterV2 +5
    Why 7 models like it
    K’s
    • Expected 8.3 Ks from roughly 23.8 projected TBF and a 34.8% blended K-rate estimate.
    • Last five starts: 42 Ks in 119 batters faced (35.3%); each cleared 6.5 except none, with 6-11 Ks.
    • Atlanta's 21.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching is elevated but not an extreme top-quartile matchup.
    MLB HunterV2
    • 11.92 season K/9 and 12.89 over his last five; recent workload supports roughly seven-plus strikeouts.
    • Atlanta strikes out 21.9% versus right-handed pitching, while Glasnow owns a 2.88 xERA and 2.74 FIP.
    • Glasnow has only 74 regular-season innings and could be limited to roughly five innings.
    Bello
    • Last 3 starts: 28 strikeouts across 16.33 innings, 15.43 K/9, with a 17.14 P/IP workload.
    • Physical check passes: rolling fastball velocity +0.16 mph and spin -42 rpm versus season baseline; no verified decay.
    • The rolling sample is three starts; Glasnow lasted only 4.0 innings in the earliest of them.
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • 7.9 projected strikeouts, 1.4 above the 6.5 line; modeled clear probability 67%.
    • Last five starts: 42 strikeouts in 119 batters faced, with 461 pitches and 29.33 innings.
    • Only 13 2026 starts and 288 batters faced create meaningful distribution uncertainty.
  3. Tyler Mahle over 13.5 outs recorded2 models agreeHigh conviction
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    2 modelsMLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model, Pitchin outs
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model
    • 18.4 outs and 93.8 pitches across Mahle's last five regular-season starts; every start cleared 13.5.
    • Model projects 17.5 outs with an 88% clear probability, a 4.0-out gap over the posted line.
    • Four of the last five starts ended between 5.0 and 6.2 innings, leaving meaningful hook risk near the line.
    Pitchin outs
    • L10 cleared 13.5 in 10/10 starts; L5 outs were 15, 18, 21, 18, 20.
    • L10 mean was 18.0 outs and median 18; season workload was 88.96 pitches/start and 5.52 IP/start.
    • Atlanta's bullpen is fresh: zero pitches yesterday, 69 over three days, and no reliever on back-to-back days.
  4. Atlanta Braves to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket

    2 modelsPolymarket MLB Hot Wallets, Underdawg
    Why 2 models like it
    Polymarket MLB Hot Wallets
    • The same live global Polymarket moneyline shows Atlanta at 41.5¢, with the contract active and accepting orders.
    • MLB single-game variance is wide; Mahle versus Glasnow and bullpen usage can overturn the side.
    Underdawg
    • +134 is within the +100 to +160 underdog lane.
    • Season win rates are close: Atlanta .580 versus Los Angeles .617, a 3.7-point gap.
    • Glasnow’s 2.89 xFIP is 0.96 better than Mahle’s 3.85, outside the preferred 0.50 threshold.
  5. Tyler Mahle over 3.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +60%Won

    Taken at −167 on DraftKings

    2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade 76/100 (B): projected 4.7 Ks versus a 3.5 line (+34.3% projection edge).
    • Mahle cleared 3.5 Ks in 7 of his last 10 starts, 4 of his last 5, and 20 of 27 regular-season starts.
    • Mahle's last-five K rate was 7.34 per nine, below his 8.28 season mark; the projection depends on roughly six innings.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • 8.28 K/9 across 149 regular-season innings with a 5.52-inning average start implies roughly 5.1 strikeouts.
    • Mahle is confirmed as Atlanta's starter; the live roster and odds feed both identify him for this game.
    • Mahle's recent 7.34 K/9 is lower than his season mark, making the edge modest rather than robust.
  6. Under total 7.5High conviction
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 7.2 runs and 53.7% under; run differential is Dodgers +201 versus Braves +116.
    • Starters are confirmed: Glasnow 2.88 xERA/33.2% CSW versus Mahle 3.95 xERA/27.2% CSW.
    • Current-season offense: Dodgers 111 wRC+, Braves 98.2; Truist Park is near neutral at 102 runs factor.
    • Atlanta can score early against Glasnow, and one home run can overwhelm a modest run-total edge.
Show all 41 picks
  1. Los Angeles Dodgers run line −1.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmUp 79% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Mahle's L3 K/9 is 6.50 versus 8.28 season; third-TTO xwOBA is .3325 versus .3209 first-TTO.
    • Dodgers versus RHP: .339 xwOBA, .419 SLG, and .2082 K%; all platoon gates clear.
    • Pinnacle had Dodgers moneyline -144; ProphetX offers the main Dodgers -1.5 at +127 / 44.05c.
    • Mahle's 3.85 xFIP and 3.95 xERA are not worse than his 3.99 ERA; the vulnerability signal is recent and narrow.
  2. Shohei Ohtani RBIs YES 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed fourth in the lineup at 12:30 PM PDT; projected 4.3 PA with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith ahead.
    • Vs RHP: .406 xwOBA over 417 PA; 81 RBI in 630 PA implies 44.7% for at least one RBI over 4.3 PA, shaded to 45.0%.
    • Tyler Mahle is at 27.2% CSW, 7.71 K/9, and 3.95 xERA; Atlanta's bullpen has thrown 10.33 IP and 165 pitches in three days.
    • Mahle's current 2026 sample is only 7.0 innings, so CSW and xERA are unstable.
  3. Los Angeles Dodgers inning 1 winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • I1 Dodgers are 22¢; their I2-I5 prices are 25¢, 25¢, 26¢, and 25¢ despite the stronger I1 matchup.
    • F5 Dodgers are 50¢ versus Atlanta 36¢; full-game Dodgers are 58¢, yet I1 shows no Dodgers premium.
    • Mahle first-inning BA/K% are .3025/.229 versus Glasnow .1875/.302; Dodgers' top three are confirmed.
    • No external sharp rung exists; venue self-reference only describes the three-way spread.
  4. Freddie Freeman 1+ home run NOFavorite
    +15%Won

    Taken at 87¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Freeman has 16 HR in 657 PA (2.4% HR/PA), roughly a 10% baseline over 4.3 PA.
    • His 32.6% fly-ball rate, 4.2% barrel rate, 35.1% pull rate, and 17.1° launch angle limit pure HR conversion.
    • Mahle allows fly balls only 27.7% of the time; his 12.7% HR/FB rate does not fully offset Freeman’s low-air-ball profile.
    • Mahle’s 12.7% HR/FB and Truist Park’s 106 HR factor leave one-mistake upside.
  5. 3-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +49900

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Guardians +115: Chicago's bullpen logged 8.67 innings/130 pitches over three days versus Cleveland's 4.0/49; Newcomb's expected ERA is 4.27.
    • Dodgers -142: Glasnow's expected ERA is 2.88 versus Mahle's 3.95, while Los Angeles carries a +1.6 recent scoring margin against Atlanta's 0.0.
    • Yankees -156: Fried's expected ERA is 2.51 versus Martinez's 3.98, and New York's recent five-game margin is +3.0.
    • Guardians starter Espino has only 15.1 innings and zero quality starts; Chicago enters on a 5-0 five-game run.
  6. Tyler Glasnow 7 or more strikeouts
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Glasnow averages 5.69 IP and 88.4 pitches per start this season; last five starts average 5.87 IP and 92.2 pitches.
    • Glasnow's last five strikeout totals were 11, 10, 7, 8, and 6; four of five reached the seven-strikeout threshold.
  7. Tyler Mahle over 2.5 strikeoutsFavorite
    +28%Won

    Taken at 78¢ on Kalshi

    High LimboUp 7% over 29 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Trailing 10 K counts: 6, 4, 6, 3, 3, 9, 4, 3, 7, 9; median 5, minimum 3, max 9, season max 9.
    • Low Hurdle qualifies: 2.5 is 2.5 Ks below the median and no higher than the trailing minimum; 10/10 cleared.
    • Physical gate passes: latest fastball 93.48 mph/2,327 rpm versus season 92.86/2,302; no velocity or spin hard rejection.
    • The Dodgers' low K rate and contact profile can produce a short, efficient-contact outing.
  8. Tyler Glasnow over 4.5 strikeoutsFavorite
    +27%Won

    Taken at 79¢ on Kalshi

    High LimboUp 7% over 29 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 9 valid trailing starts: 11, 10, 7, 8, 6, 7, 9, 9, 7; median 8, minimum 6, max 11.
    • Low Hurdle qualifies: 4.5 is 3.5 Ks below the median and 1.5 below the minimum; 9/9 valid starts cleared.
    • Physical gate passes: latest fastball 95.89 mph/2,426 rpm versus season 95.51/2,521; no velocity or spin hard rejection.
    • Atlanta's low K profile can strand Glasnow below the hurdle despite substantial distribution headroom.
  9. First-inning runs
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ATL top three vs RHP: Harris .358, Acuña .373, Olson .362 xwOBA; Mahle first-inning BA .3025.
    • LAD top three vs RHP: Betts .328, Freeman .383, Smith .400 xwOBA; elite combined top-order quality.
    • Posted lineups and both probable starters were confirmed at 12:30 PM PT; Truist Park runs factor is 102.
    • Mahle's first-inning sample is only 28 games and 131 PA; Glasnow's is 13 games and 53 PA.
  10. Atlanta Braves −1.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 25¢ on Polymarket US

    Run and a HalfUp 223% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle same-rung Atlanta -1.5 was +227, about 29.3% devigged versus 25.0¢ here.
    • the bucket fit makes Atlanta -1.5 30.3%; Polymarket's Dodgers moneyline and Dodgers -1.5 prices fit, but Dodgers +1.5 is rich.
    • Glasnow's 2.88 xERA versus Mahle's 3.95 still favors Los Angeles, but the model prices Atlanta's multi-run tail above this rung.
    • Glasnow has 11.92 K/9, and Los Angeles has a .339 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
  11. Tyler Mahle 6+ strikeouts NOFavorite
    +27%Won

    Taken at 79¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: 4.1 Ks; 6+ NO has 1.9-K separation, clearing the specialist's NO gate.
    • Confirmed Dodgers nine-man lineup projects 20.1% K versus right-handers; contact-heavy matchup suppresses Mahle's 6+ tail.
    • Mahle owns a 6.85 season K/9, 7.63 L3 and 7.76 L5 K/9, with no pitch cap or IL issue verified.
    • The one 2026 playoff start is a small sample and could signal a real postseason strikeout uptick.
  12. Los Angeles Dodgers −1.5
    +116%Won

    Taken at +116 on FanDuel

    MLB Quant EdgeUp 84% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Glasnow: 3.53 ERA versus 2.88 xERA, 2.95 SIERA, and 2.89 xFIP.
    • Glasnow's 11.92 K/9 and .332 CSW% exceed Mahle's 8.28 K/9 and .272 CSW%.
    • Dodgers carry 110.5 wRC+; Braves 98.7; Atlanta's bullpen logged 10.33 innings and 165 pitches recently.
    • Atlanta's .323 xwOBA versus right-handers and home field can punish mistakes.
  13. Over 7.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 81% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 8.30 runs; Poisson P(over 7.5) is 58.7%.
    • Dodgers carry a 111 wRC+; Atlanta is 98, with Truist Park at 102 runs and 106 HR factor.
    • Bullpens have logged 10.33 and 7.33 innings, plus 165 and 130 pitches, across the last three days.
    • Glasnow's 2.88 xERA and 0.95 WHIP can suppress Atlanta if he works seven innings.
  14. Under 7.5 total runs
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket

    Polymarket MLB Hot WalletsDown 5% over 276 picks
    Why it likes it
    • The direct global Polymarket Under 7.5 contract is active, accepting orders, and priced at 50.5¢.
    • Eight or more total runs beats the position, and postseason extra innings add tail risk.
  15. Tyler Mahle over 1.5 earned runs allowed
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER ModelDown 34% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Expected 5.8 IP and 2.45 ER from Mahle's 3.95 xERA, 3.85 xFIP, and 4.01 SIERA.
    • Los Angeles owns a .339 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; the posted nine-man lineup is confirmed.
    • Mahle is a confirmed listed starter, off the IL, with 12 days since his prior start.
    • Mahle's last five regular-season starts produced a 2.35 ERA over 30.7 innings.
  16. Freddie Freeman over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −248 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 76.6% model hit probability from 0.30 vs-RHP average over a four-PA baseline.
    • Hit in 6 of his last 10 qualifying appearances, clearing the 60% form gate.
    • DraftKings -248 implies 71.3%, leaving roughly a 5.3-point model margin.
    • Last-14 average is .190, so the recent 10-game hit rate may overstate current form.
  17. Los Angeles Dodgers −1
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dodgers -1 pushes on an exactly one-run Dodgers win; it wins by 2+ and loses on a tie or Braves win.
    • A Dodgers win by exactly one returns stake rather than cashes; a tie or any Braves win loses the contract.
  18. Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves under 7 total runs
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 7 wins at 0, 6 runs and pushes at exactly 7; under 7.5 wins through 7.
    • All-MLB 2023, 26 frequency may not match this postseason matchup or its 7.5-run market.
  19. over 9.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book_levels: over 3 vs under 2, corroborating multiple queued levels behind the thin side.
    • Venue self-reference is not independent validation; quotes can be stale, cancelled, or concentrated among a few participants.
  20. Atlanta Braves +1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check: backing Atlanta Braves +1, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The third measure does not corroborate: book_levels are tied 3-3.
  21. Drake Baldwin 1+ hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Small BallDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Drake Baldwin owns a .2997 AVG and .3823 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching across 401 PA.
    • Glasnow is confirmed right-handed; his 5.69 IP and 88.4 pitches per start support a plausible late-bullpen PA path.
    • Glasnow's 34.0% strikeout rate and .263 xwOBA allowed are strong opposing signals.
  22. Game total over 7.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 8.1 projected total runs, fair total 8.0, Over 55.4%, push 0.0% at 7.5; released 4:25 PM CDT.
    • Dodgers vs right-handers: .339 team xwOBA and 4.94 runs/game; Braves: .3227 xwOBA and 4.58 runs/game.
    • Mahle allows .306 xwOBA with 3.95 xERA; Glasnow is stronger at .263 xwOBA, but the lineup and starter asymmetry still support 8-plus runs.
    • Glasnow's 11.92 K/9 and .263 xwOBA allowed can suppress Atlanta for six-plus innings.
  23. Game extra inningsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 11¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected run means are modest and close: roughly Dodgers 4.0, Braves 3.4; no large-margin shape dominates.
    • Live 1-0 state preserves a one-run differential path to a tie after nine rather than creating a runaway.
    • Both pens have heavy three-day workloads, Atlanta 10.33 IP/165 pitches, Los Angeles 7.33 IP/130, increasing late-game uncertainty.
    • The 15% figure is a structural Poisson/Skellam projection, not a sharp-market estimate; no sportsbook prices this exact rung.
  24. Tyler Mahle 15+ recorded outs
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Mahle's 2026 regular-season workload averaged 88.96 pitches and 5.52 innings per start; his last five averaged 6.13 innings and 93.8 pitches.
    • His latest playoff start reached 21 outs on 95 pitches, and the same-day report says there is no stated pitch-count restriction and the abdominal issue is not limiting him.
    • This is a do-or-die postseason game, so a fresh leverage arm and a shorter playoff hook could pull Mahle before five innings despite normal workload.
  25. Los Angeles Dodgers under 8.5 total runs
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tyler Mahle and Tyler Glasnow are live-verified starters; Glasnow has an 11.92 K/9 and both starters carry sub-4.00 season ERAs.
    • Most likely loss: Mahle and Glasnow or the bullpens allow nine or more combined runs.
  26. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    +19900%Won

    Taken at +19900

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Single product is 2.98 decimal (+198); top and fill rung is +200 with $100 max stake, a 1.01 fill/product ratio.
    • Likeliest joint loss: Cleveland loses by two or more after Espino's limited three-start sample, making the +1 leg fail.
  27. Matt Olson 2+ total bases
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed third in the lineup, improving expected plate appearances against a right-handed starter.
    • Glasnow allows a 29.8% fly-ball rate and 10.3% HR/FB; Truist Park's HR factor is 106.
    • Glasnow's 11.92 K/9 can erase contact opportunities, and his .103 HR/FB is not an obvious power mismatch.
  28. Atlanta Braves under 3.5 runs scored
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tyler Glasnow is the confirmed right-handed starter: .263 expected wOBA allowed, 2.88 xERA, and 11.92 K/9 in the regular-season profile.
    • Atlanta's posted nine-man lineup has only .3202 xwOBA versus right-handers over the last 15 days, essentially flat with its .3227 season split; the bottom order offers no hot-lineup upgrade.
    • Dodgers bullpen enters with 7.33 innings/130 pitches over three days, zero back-to-back arms, while Truist's live park/weather read is only mildly scoring-positive: 102 runs, 77°F, 2-mph wind.
    • Atlanta's season split remains respectable at .3227 xwOBA versus right-handers, so this is not a severe offense mismatch.
  29. Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves over 0.5 runs in the 2nd inning
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game total is 7.5 at roughly 50/50, with a fitted empirical scoring center near 8 runs.
    • First-five ladder implies a substantial early scoring environment: over 2.5 at 73c and over 3.5 at 57c.
    • Equal-slice calibration from those anchors puts second-inning over 0.5 roughly in the 50, 55% range.
    • Market-history returned no target price changes; a frozen quote cannot be distinguished perfectly from a fresh disagreement.
  30. Los Angeles Dodgers first-five spread +1.5Favorite
    +28%Won

    Taken at 78¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • no independent sharp quote exists for the Polymarket US F5 ±1.5 rung.
    • Glasnow: 2.88 xERA, 0.95 WHIP, 11.92 K/9 and .188 first-inning BA; Mahle: 3.95 xERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.28 K/9.
    • Posted top-five xwOBA versus right-handed pitching averages .365 for Los Angeles and .351 for Atlanta.
    • The Dodgers +1.5 loses if Atlanta wins the first five by two or more runs; one crooked inning dominates this short window.
  31. Game first-five total under 5.5Favorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the full-game total is 7.5, while the F5 under 5.5 price allows a normal bullpen-driven innings 6-9 scoring gap.
    • Tyler Mahle's playoff profile shows a 1.29 ERA_l3/ERA_l5, 1.00 WHIP and 7.71 K/9 entering this start.
    • All top-five hitters on both confirmed lineups were verified; Polymarket US quotes both F5 5.5 sides, with Under at 69¢.
    • The Dodgers' top five include Freeman (.3825 xwOBA vs R), Smith (.3995) and Ohtani (.4059); Atlanta's Harris, Acuña and Olson are also dangerous.
  32. Game total Under 7.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Under CurrentDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX team totals are 3.5 each, a 7.0 combined threshold below the 7.5 game total; its 1st-5th total is 4.5.
    • Both confirmed lineups were posted at 12:20 PM PDT; no starter is on the active IL, and both bullpens had zero appearances yesterday.
    • The Dodgers' .339 and Braves' .3227 xwOBA versus right-handers are not weak contact profiles.
  33. Los Angeles Dodgers spread −1.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Glasnow owns a 2.88 xERA and 11.92 K/9 in 2026; Mahle's regular-season xERA is 3.95 with 8.28 K/9.
    • Dodgers lead Braves 110.5 to 98.74 in season wRC+ and .339 to .3227 in 2026 xwOBA versus right-handers.
    • Atlanta's bullpen has logged 85 pitches over the last three days versus 61 for Los Angeles, strengthening the Dodgers' late-game margin path.
    • Most likely loss: a low-scoring one-run Dodgers win cashes the Braves +1.5 and misses this ticket.
  34. Los Angeles Dodgers spread −1
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION. Glasnow: 3.53 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 11.92 K/9. Mahle: 3.99 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.28 K/9.
    • Matchup clash favors Los Angeles by 12.08 percentage points in starter-versus-opponent K rate; Atlanta's bullpen has 10.33 IP and 165 pitches in three days versus 7.33 IP and 130.
    • LEAN, not RECOMMENDED: the 9.9x ratio is below the 10x threshold.
  35. Tyler Glasnow pitcher strikeouts over 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Glasnow cleared 6.5 Ks in 4 of his last 5 starts, averaging 8.4 Ks.
    • Model estimate: 59% over probability versus 51.9% implied at -108; fair line approximately -144, a 7.1-point edge.
    • Glasnow averaged 5.87 innings across his last five starts; an early hook around 5 innings is the main failure mode.

Questions

Who won Dodgers vs. Braves?

The Dodgers won 4-1 on Wednesday, Oct 7, 2026.

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