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FinalProgressive Field
White Sox84-78
4–3Final
Guardians85-77
Score by period
Team123456789T
CHW0001030004
CLE2000000103

Top model pick, graded

Won

Chicago White Sox to win 41¢

Why Drift likes it: Power rating: Chicago 45.0%; their +56 run differential tops Cleveland's +11 despite nearly even records (84-78 vs. 85-77).

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-11 on this game · +6% return

  1. Chicago White Sox to win3 models agreeHigh conviction
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, Resting Money +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Power rating: Chicago 45.0%; their +56 run differential tops Cleveland's +11 despite nearly even records (84-78 vs. 85-77).
    • Recent form also leans Chicago: 4-1 with +1.8 runs/game over five, versus Cleveland 3-2 and +1.2.
    • The market has barely moved toward Chicago; that leaves limited movement confirmation, and this modest gap could reflect rating error.
    Resting Money
    • Two measures align: Chicago is thinner at quote but deeper overall. Backing Chicago White Sox, read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind, leg matches.
    • Venue self-reference only; no independent order-flow confirmation. The equal 3-level count does not corroborate the depth/quote pattern.
    Underdawg
    • Season run-differential fallback gives Pythagorean win rates of 53.4% CWS and 50.8% CLE, a 2.7-point skill gap within the 6-point gate.
    • Both teams were nearly level in the standings: CWS 84-78, CLE 85-77; latest 30-day wRC+ is 103.2 vs 96.6 (6.6-point gap).
    • Starting-pitcher xFIP materially favors Cleveland: Gavin Williams 2.85 versus Anthony Kay 4.65, a 1.80-run gap.
  2. Cleveland Guardians to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −148 on FanDuel

    3 modelsThe Core 6 Independent Syndicate, MLB Quant Edge +1
    Why 3 models like it
    The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    • Kay: 5.05 xERA/.342 xwOBA allowed against Williams at 3.84/.302; Kay's 5.48 L5 ERA contrasts with Williams' 2.54.
    • Both confirmed starters are on regular rest, with 8 and 10 days since their last starts, respectively.
    • Cleveland's .306 xwOBA vs LHP is weak, while Chicago's .313 vs RHP is only modest; the lineup matchup does not add much to the starter edge.
    MLB Quant Edge
    • Williams: 2.95 SIERA and 2.85 xFIP versus a 3.76 ERA.
    • Williams brings a 33.2% K rate and 32.4% CSW rate; Chicago strikes out 24.2% versus right-handers.
    • Cleveland's split is modest against lefties: .305 xwOBA and .371 SLG.
    MLB Default Picks
    • Williams xFIP 2.85 versus expected bulk Burke 4.00 adds +4; L5 ERA/WHIP 2.54/1.06 versus 4.64/1.78 adds +1.
    • All 18 lineup spots are confirmed; roof open, 62F, 15-mph wind in, and Gabe Morales is assigned (29 games).
    • Anthony Kay will open before Burke; an unexpected innings split makes the Burke-bulk baseline less reliable.
  3. Anthony Kay under 5.5 outs
    +110%Won

    Taken at +110 on BetMGM

    MLB HunterV2Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • MLB.com confirms Kay is the opener, with Sean Burke designated for bulk innings; the planned short stint strongly favors fewer than 6 outs.
    • Under 5.5 outs requires Kay to record at least 6 outs (2.0 IP) to lose; opener role-based estimate: about 70% under versus +110's 47.6% break-even.
    • The game-day roster confirms Kay is active; the live BetMGM pitcher-outs market lists his 5.5 line at +110.
    • Kay could be left in for two full innings or longer if he is efficient, recording 6+ outs before Burke enters.
  4. 2-leg parlayFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −374

    Dr. Two LegsDown 7% over 73 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Williams cleared 80 pitches in 3 of his last 4 starts (89, 113, 99) and is listed as today's starter with no IL flag.
    • Peralta's 2026 K/9 is 8.31, and his recent 4-start strikeout results were 4, 6, 4, 2.
  5. Total runs under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX No Vig MLBDown 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX beats the best US under price on the same rung, Fanatics +105.
    • Cleveland xwOBA .3059 vs LHP (2,044 PA) triggers a -0.50-run under ledger, capped at -0.40 for Partial coverage; Chicago .3125 vs RHP (4,403 PA) gives 0.00. Both postseason bullpen b2b counts are 0.
    • Most likely loss: seven or more runs; 6.5 has no push protection, and the 4.3-run SD model leaves a wide scoring distribution.
  6. Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians over 3.5 first-five total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchor fit: the board's moneyline and 6.5 total imply a roughly 58% Cleveland win chance and a 7.4-run scoring center; Pinnacle agrees near 59% and Over 6.5 at -120.
    • Historical postseason calibration reweighted to that anchor picture puts the first-five Over 3.5 near 50.7% (276 complete F5 samples).
    • F5 calibration uses 276 complete postseason F5 samples, not a large or game-specific sample; actual starter performances can diverge sharply.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Gavin Williams over 1.5 earned runs allowed
    +139%Won

    Taken at +139 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER ModelDown 34% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 32 regular-season starts: 22 allowed 2+ ER (68.8%); mean 2.41 ER in 5.76 IP.
    • Negative-binomial fit to 32-start mean/variance estimates 62.3% for 2+ ER; model fair price about -165.
    • DraftKings +139/-185 devigs to 39.2% for the Over: model is +23.1 percentage points versus that market reference.
    • Williams' 25.1% K-BB rate, 105.1 Stuff+, and 25.8% hard-hit rate allowed give him a credible path to limiting damage.
  2. Miguel Vargas over 0.5 hits
    +68%Won

    Taken at −146 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Vargas recorded a hit in 6 of his last 10 games, meeting the recent-form threshold.
    • His season average is .251 and .264 against left-handers; Kay has allowed right-handed batters a .290 average and .375 xwOBA.
    • Vargas is confirmed batting third and active for this matchup.
    • The recent hit rate only just meets the cutoff: four hitless games in the last ten.
  3. Cleveland Guardians run line −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • There were 3 book levels on each side, so levels do not corroborate; two measures (thin quote and deeper total depth) align. Backing Cleveland -1.5, read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, the leg matches.
    • This is venue self-reference, not independent order-flow confirmation; the hypothesis may not predict outcomes.
  4. White Sox–Guardians first-inning over 0.5 runs
    +136%Won

    Taken at +136 on FanDuel

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 8% over 127 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Season first-inning offense baseline: Chicago scored in about 32.7% of first innings; Cleveland in 27.9%.
    • Anthony Kay's first-inning line: .252 BA against, three HR across 31 first innings; his season xwOBA allowed is .342.
    • Posted top-four orders include Vargas (.378 xwOBA) for Chicago; cool 62°F conditions with 15-mph wind in from left temper the estimate.
    • Gavin Williams is a strong counterweight: .218 first-inning BA allowed, 38.0% first-inning K rate, and 3.06 season ERA.
  5. Gavin Williams over 15.5 pitcher outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +120 on DraftKings

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 21 of 32 regular-season starts cleared 15.5 outs (65.6%); adjusted projection: 62% to clear.
    • Projected 17.2 outs, 1.7 above the 15.5 line; season workload averaged 93.5 pitches per start.
    • Observed outs distribution: 4 starts at 4, 14 outs, 7 at 15, 5 at 16, 17, 6 at 18, 20, 10 at 21+.
    • Recent five starts cleared in 3/5; his latest was just 10 outs on 74 pitches.
  6. Cleveland Guardians first-five to win
    +60%Won

    Taken at −166 on FanDuel

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateUp 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kay: 4.56 ERA, 5.05 xERA and .342 xwOBA allowed; Williams: 3.76 ERA, 3.84 xERA and .302 xwOBA allowed.
    • Recent form separates the starters: Kay 5.48 L5 ERA; Williams 2.54 L5 ERA. Both were listed for today's start.
    • Confirmed batting orders are posted. Platoon context is modest: Cleveland .306 xwOBA vs LHP; Chicago .313 vs RHP.
    • Cleveland's .306 xwOBA vs lefties is a modest offense split, not a major lineup edge.
  7. Gavin Williams over 15.5 pitching outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +118 on FanDuel

    Pitchin outsUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 21/32 regular-season starts cleared 15.5 outs; season mean was 17.28, and L10 cleared 6/10.
    • L5 averaged 17.0 outs and 94.4 pitches; confirmed starter, no IL flag, and no reported cap.
    • Third-TTO xwOBA .298 versus .260 first TTO: a .038 gap, below the .080 avoid threshold.
    • Last five cleared only 3/5, and season outcomes include a 10-out start and a 4-out exit.
  8. Any run scored in the 1st inning
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle moneyline implies Cleveland about 58%; Polymarket US's Cleveland price is 59¢, broadly aligned.
    • Pinnacle's 6.5 total prices the over near 53%; Polymarket US is 52.5¢. These anchors support a low-scoring environment, around 7.2 runs by the fitted 2026 distribution.
    • The ~4-point gap is modest; the venue's fee and execution could reduce or erase it.
  9. Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians first-inning run
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    First PitchDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted top threes: White Sox Sam Antonacci/Kyle Teel/Miguel Vargas vs RHP Gavin Williams (.361/.322/.364 xwOBA vs R); Guardians Steven Kwan/José Ramírez/Chase DeLauter vs LHP Anthony Kay (.319/.351/.298 vs L).
    • The hitters provide some lift: Vargas is .4115 xwOBA vs LHP; Kwan’s L7 is .407 AVG/.500 OBP and Antonacci’s L7 is .407/.452.
    • any run by either team in either half of the 1st inning wins. The full-game total is NOT a valid first-inning reference; it was not substituted.
    • First-inning samples are 137 PA for Williams and 134 for Kay; either a clean frame or one baserunner sequence can decide this binary market.
  10. Colson Montgomery 1+ hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    Small BallDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • DraftKings' exact over 0.5 hits rung is +116 / under -154; devigged fair probability is 43.3%.
    • confirmed ninth-slot Colson hit .1779 versus right-handers across 447 PA; about 3.2, 3.5 expected at-bats implies roughly 47, 50% for 1+ hit under a simple independent-AB model.
    • Ninth in the order limits opportunity: one fewer at-bat materially reduces the hit chance; the 3.6, 3.9 PA estimate is uncertain.
  11. PROJECTION: Cleveland Guardians to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • estimate 61% fair for Cleveland: Gavin Williams’ 2026 regular-season xFIP is 2.85 versus Anthony Kay’s 4.65, a 1.80-run gap; Williams also has 12.11 K/9 versus 7.28.
    • Confirmed personnel: both starters are posted and not on the IL; both starting lineups were posted before this read.
    • Likeliest loss path: Chicago’s offense converts its platoon advantage against Williams; White Sox xwOBA vs RHP is .3125, versus Cleveland’s .3059 vs LHP.

Questions

Who won White Sox vs. Guardians?

The White Sox won 4-3 on Monday, Oct 5, 2026.

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