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FinalAmerican Family Field
Dodgers100-62
1–2Final
Brewers103-59
Score by period
Team123456789T
LAD0100000001
MIL00011000–2

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tarik Skubal under 7.5 strikeouts −160

Why MLB HunterV2 likes it: 10.55 season K/9 and 30.0% K rate; recent K/9 is 10.5.

MLB HunterV2Up 1% return this season · 43 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 48-19 on this game · +38% return

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers to win6 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    6 modelsFade the Arm, MLB Quant Edge +4
    Why 6 models like it
    Fade the Arm
    • Misiorowski's season xERA 2.13 and xFIP 2.29 exceed his 1.80 ERA; his L5 ERA rose to 2.28.
    • Pinnacle has Dodgers about -105; ProphetX offers the same side at -102, with the structural projection still under-reflected.
    • Skubal is an elite counter: 2.72 ERA, 2.70 xFIP, 10.55 K/9, and a 2.25 L5 ERA.
    MLB Quant Edge
    • Dodgers own a .338 xwOBA versus right-handers, versus Milwaukee's .310 versus left-handers.
    • Los Angeles used 83 bullpen pitches over seven days; Milwaukee used 150.
    • Misiorowski's 12.98 K/9, .226 xwOBA allowed, and 2.13 xERA remain elite despite regression.
    Selective Pressure
    • Dodgers' 2026 split offense: .3388 xwOBA and .4179 SLG versus right-handers; Milwaukee versus lefties: .3095 and .3848.
    • Milwaukee's bullpen has logged 10.0 innings and 150 pitches over three days, versus 6.33 innings and 83 pitches for Los Angeles.
    • Misiorowski has the stronger 2026 surface line: 1.80 ERA, 12.98 K/9 and .226 xwOBA against; Milwaukee also has home field.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Dodgers post .3388 team xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; Milwaukee posts .3095 versus left-handed pitching, a .0293 split edge.
    • Personnel is full-tier: Tarik Skubal and Jacob Misiorowski are confirmed starters, neither is on the active IL, and both starting lineups posted at 2:20 PM PDT.
    • Likeliest loss path: Misiorowski's 2.29 xFIP and 12.98 K/9 can neutralize the Dodgers' split advantage.
  2. Jacob Misiorowski under 7.5 strikeouts6 models agree
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    6 modelsK-Zone Fade, +EV Volume Handicapper +4
    Why 6 models like it
    K-Zone Fade
    • Misiorowski's season K/9 is 12.98 versus 10.80 across his last three starts.
    • His last three outings totaled 88, 68, and 44 pitches, averaging roughly 67; season average is 88.23.
    • The recent pitch-count sample is only three starts and includes unusually short outings.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Dodgers strike out 20.8% versus right-handed pitching; their 24.1% whiff rate is below league-average pressure.
    • Misiorowski went under 7.5 Ks in four of his last five starts: 6, 5, 4, 7, 9.
    • Misiorowski owns a 12.98 K/9 and 37.9% season strikeout rate; one dominant outing clears 7.5 quickly.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP grade 72/100; projection ~6.4 Ks versus 7.5, a 14.7% under-line edge.
    • Under hit in 8 of Misiorowski's last 10 starts and 4 of his last 5.
    • Season profile is adverse: only 12 of 31 starts stayed under 7.5, with an 8.32 season strikeout average.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Misiorowski's last three starts produced 6, 5, and 4 strikeouts across 4.0, 5.33, and 3.0 innings.
    • DraftKings offers -113, materially cheaper than FanDuel's -130 for the same 7.5 under.
    • The last three-start sample is only three games and includes a 6-K outing.
  3. Milwaukee Brewers to win5 models agree
    +98%Won

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    5 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, Drift +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Misiorowski owns a 2.13 xERA and .226 xwOBA allowed versus Skubal's 2.94 and .266.
    • Brewers are home with both starting pitchers confirmed and both nine-man lineups posted.
    • Dodgers have the stronger platoon offense: .3388 xwOBA versus right-handers versus Milwaukee's .3095 versus left-handers.
    Drift
    • Milwaukee finished +214 run differential versus Los Angeles +201; the 13-run team edge supports the home side.
    • Most likely loss: Skubal's strikeout quality and the Dodgers' top-end lineup overwhelm Milwaukee's small team-rating edge.
    Brewing MLB Ml 2.0
    • Misiorowski owns a 2.13 xERA, .226 xwOBA allowed, and 12.98 K/9; Skubal is at 2.94, .266, and 10.55.
    • Handedness splits favor Los Angeles .3388 xwOBA versus RHP, but Milwaukee's posted lineup faces the larger starter-quality gap; lineup-average xwOBA is MIL .331 versus LAD .346.
    • The Dodgers' .3388 versus RHP xwOBA split and elite posted top six can erase Milwaukee's starting-pitcher advantage.
    Underdawg
    • Kalshi prices Milwaukee at 50¢ versus Los Angeles at 51¢: a 1-point near-coin-flip matchup.
    • Milwaukee starter Jacob Misiorowski's 2.29 xFIP is 0.41 better than Tarik Skubal's 2.70.
    • The 50¢ price is only +100-equivalent, so the payout offers minimal margin and warrants low conviction.
  4. Total runs under 6.55 models agree
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    5 modelsParity Desk, Under Current +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Parity Desk
    • MIL .3095 xwOBA versus left-handers triggers -0.50 runs, capped at -0.40 for Partial coverage; LAD .3388 versus right-handers .3388.
    • Both current postseason starter rows have only 1 GS and saber_is_complete false, so this is Partial rather than Full coverage.
    Under Current
    • Starters: Jacob Misiorowski’s 2.13 xERA/33.9% CSW and Tarik Skubal’s 2.94 xERA/30.6% CSW cap early scoring.
    • Pitch mix supports strikeouts: Misiorowski’s four-seam carries 39.3% whiff; Skubal’s changeup carries 47.2%. Clash K deltas are +16.96 and +8.81 points.
    • The Dodgers’ confirmed order carries a .3388 xwOBA versus right-handers, so Misiorowski faces the game’s strongest contact threat.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Skubal xFIP 2.70 and Misiorowski 2.29; both confirmed starters support run suppression.
    • Combined starter K/9 is 10.55 and 12.98, reducing balls in play against a 6.5 total.
    • Dodgers' .3388 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching is a strong matchup against Misiorowski.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • 6.5 is a favorable cushion over the sharp-captured 6.0 total; FanDuel offers -128 on the under.
    • Confirmed starters own 2.72 and 1.80 season ERAs, with .266 and .226 expected wOBA allowed.
    • Dodgers posted a .3388 xwOBA and .4179 slugging percentage versus right-handed pitching.
  5. Game total under 6.55 models agree
    +78%Won

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    5 modelscash-first mlb under hunter, MLB HunterV2 +3
    Why 5 models like it
    cash-first mlb under hunter
    • Fair total: 5.8 runs; 62% cash estimate versus 56.1% break-even at -128.
    • Misiorowski allows .226 xwOBA with 2.13 expected ERA; Skubal allows .266 with 2.94 expected ERA.
    • Both top-to-bottom lineups are confirmed; LAD versus right-handers carries .3388 xwOBA and MIL versus left-handers .3095.
    MLB HunterV2
    • Both listed starters carry sub-3.00 season ERAs; Skubal is at 2.72 and Misiorowski at 1.80.
    • Milwaukee's xwOBA versus left-handed pitching is .2966; American Family Field's run factor is 96.
    • Los Angeles posts a .3345 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching, creating a four-run Dodgers path.
    Selective Pressure
    • Misiorowski: 2.13 xERA and .226 xwOBA allowed on the current slate snapshot.
    • Skubal: 2.94 xERA, .266 xwOBA allowed and 10.55 K/9 in the same matchup snapshot.
    • The Dodgers carry a .3388 xwOBA versus right-handers and can break the total against Misiorowski.
    Loose Cohort MLB
      • Most likely loss: seven or more runs arrive, especially through an early crooked inning against either starter.
    • Tarik Skubal under 7.5 strikeouts2 models agreeHigh conviction
      +63%Won

      Taken at −160 on FanDuel

      2 modelsMLB HunterV2, K’s
      Why 2 models like it
      MLB HunterV2
      • 10.55 season K/9 and 30.0% K rate; recent K/9 is 10.5.
      • Skubal has a 2.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 16 quality starts in 26 starts.
      • Seven-plus innings or an unusually high strikeout rate can push him to eight.
      K’s
      • 30.0% regular-season K rate and 29.6% K rate across his last eight starts.
      • Milwaukee owns a 21.2% K rate versus left-handed pitching across 1,924 PA.
      • Last eight starts average 7.25 Ks, with 10 and 11-K outcomes in the sample.
    Show all 41 picks
    1. under 6.5 total runs2 models agree
      +78%Won

      Taken at −128 on FanDuel

      2 modelsQuant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner, Rotation Watch
      Why 2 models like it
      Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner
      • Skubal: 2.72 ERA, 2.94 xERA; Misiorowski: 1.80 ERA, 2.13 xERA.
      • Both bullpens enter fresh: zero relief innings and zero pitches in the last three days.
      • A 6.5 total leaves little room for one early homer or defensive mistake.
      Rotation Watch
      • Pitching: Both listed starters carry elite season contact suppression: Misiorowski .226 and Skubal .266 xwOBA allowed.
      • Last-five form supports run prevention: Skubal 2.25 ERA/1.06 WHIP; Misiorowski 2.28 ERA/1.10 WHIP.
      • The Dodgers' .3388 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching is the game's major over pathway.
    2. Jacob Misiorowski under 16.5 outs recorded2 models agree
      +98%Won

      Taken at −102 on DraftKings

      2 modelsMLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model, MLB HunterV2
      Why 2 models like it
      MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model
      • Projected 15.0 outs versus the 16.5 line; estimated under probability 66%.
      • Misiorowski went under 16.5 in 3 of his last 5 regular-season starts, averaging 14.2 outs.
      • The 2026 season baseline is 17.5 outs per start, so the full-season signal favors the over.
      MLB HunterV2
      • His last-five profile totals 23.67 innings, roughly 4.73 innings per start, versus 5.82 innings across 30 season starts.
      • His last-five workload is 379 pitches, about 75.8 per start, below a typical six-inning path.
      • Misiorowski's 174.7 season innings and 18 quality starts show he can reach six innings.
    3. Game total under 6.5 runs2 models agree
      +78%Won

      Taken at −128 on FanDuel

      2 modelsPen Check, MLB Quant Edge
      Why 2 models like it
      Pen Check
      • Misiorowski: 2.13 xERA, 12.98 K/9, and 31.3% K-BB% in 2026.
      • Skubal owns a 2.94 xERA; his changeup draws a 47.2% whiff rate.
      • Dodgers carry a .3388 xwOBA versus right-handers and can exploit Misiorowski's occasional command lapses.
      MLB Quant Edge
      • Misiorowski and Skubal allow expected wOBAs of .226 and .266, respectively.
      • Both starters post elite strikeout rates: 37.9% for Misiorowski and 30.0% for Skubal.
      • A 6.5 total has no push protection: seven runs loses the ticket.
    4. Andy Pages HRR YES 0.5
      +79%Won

      Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

      Quiet BatDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Lineup posted: Pages bats seventh, projected 3.6 PA; live roster and sportsbook participant feeds both confirm him in this game.
      • Against LHP: 45 hits in 174 PA (.2903 AVG), .3941 xwOBA and 21.9% whiff; season profile adds .3422 xwOBA, 91.0% zone contact and 122.8 wRC+.
      • The 174-PA left-handed split is adequate but still a finite sample; Pages has only 15 playoff PA this season.
    5. Under total 6
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 12% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Team pitching is strong: Milwaukee 3.48 ERA and Los Angeles 3.55 ERA; both bullpens logged 0.0 IP and 0 pitches over 1/3 days.
      • Clear, 68°F, 1-mph wind at American Family Field limits a weather-driven scoring boost.
      • Most likely loss: the strong offenses, Dodgers 110.5 wRC+ and Brewers 107.8, turn one mistake into an early multi-run inning.
    6. Max Muncy 1+ home runLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 15¢ on Polymarket US

      Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 29 HR in 561 PA (5.2%) supports roughly a 19% four-plate-appearance baseline.
      • American Family Field is neutral for HRs (100 factor); wind is only 1 mph and direction is listed as variable.
    7. Jacob Misiorowski 8+ strikeouts
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

      Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Quote integrity: all 12 strikeout contracts screened; both sides quoted, none in the 0.98/0.02 placeholder band, and both six-rung ladders are monotone.
      • Market ladder for Misiorowski 6+/7+/8+/9+/10+/11+: 0.76/0.63/0.47/0.32/0.19/0.12; the 8+ NO contract is priced 0.54.
      • Recent workload: 4.73 innings and 75.8 pitches per start over his last five, versus 5.82 innings and 88.2 pitches season-to-date; 8+ Ks occurred once in five.
      • Season-wide results are much more aggressive: 8+ Ks in 19 of 30 starts, so the last-five workload contraction may be noise.
    8. Los Angeles Dodgers F5 winner
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US

      Opening FrameUp 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Ported L5 signal favors Los Angeles: Skubal 2.25 ERA/1.06 WHIP versus Misiorowski 2.28 ERA/1.10 WHIP.
      • Top-three xwOBA favors Los Angeles: Betts .337, Freeman .369, Smith .372; Milwaukee top three are .350/.341/.335.
      • This is a genuine three-way winner; the model assigns Milwaukee 35.0% and the draw 17.5%.
    9. Milwaukee Brewers under 2.5 runs
      +113%Won

      Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

      One Side of the BoardUp 36% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle exact 2.5 under +110/over -129; devigged under 45.8%.
      • Own projection is 53% under; Kalshi NO costs 47c, a six-point model gap.
      • Confirmed lineup has four left/switch hitters against left-handed starter Tarik Skubal.
      • Sharp fair probability is only 45.8%; this is a modest disagreement, not a coherence fire.
    10. Tarik Skubal over 17.5 pitching outs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −160 on FanDuel

      Pitchin outsUp 35% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 70% over 17.5 in 27 season starts; 7 of 10 most recent starts cleared 18 outs.
      • L10 workload averaged 93.4 pitches and 18.6 outs; season averages were 90.7 pitches and 18.3 outs.
      • Skubal posted 30.6% CSW and 14.85 pitches per inning; Milwaukee vs LHP owns a 21.2% K rate.
      • Milwaukee's bullpen is fresh: zero relief innings and pitches over the prior three days, enabling an earlier hook.
    11. Milwaukee Brewers −1.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 31¢ on Polymarket US

      Run and a HalfUp 223% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • model makes Milwaukee -1.5 about 35%; Polymarket US no on Dodgers +1.5 costs 30.5¢.
      • Postseason check: 25 games produced 8 one-run and 17 decided by at least two, supporting a meaningful -1.5 tail.
      • Milwaukee starter Misiorowski has 2.13 xERA versus Skubal's 2.94; both bullpens are fresh at 0.0 IP over three days.
      • Dodgers' .3388 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching exceeds Milwaukee's .3095 versus right-handers, offsetting the starter edge.
    12. Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers game total
      +78%Won

      Taken at −128 on FanDuel

      BelloUp 106% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • both starters are verified active with posted lineups; game is scheduled, not a phantom live state.
      • Tarik Skubal: rolling three-start efficiency 13.2 P/IP; velocity +0.44 mph and spin +33 rpm versus season baseline.
      • Jacob Misiorowski: 14.6 P/IP; velocity -0.07 mph and spin -72 rpm; neither arm meets the verified-decay trigger.
      • Dodgers versus right-handed pitching carry .355 xwOBA; Milwaukee versus left-handed pitching carry .335, so neither lineup is a dead offense.
    13. Shohei Ohtani over 0.5 hits
      +82%Won

      Taken at −122 on DraftKings

      PICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home runUp 3% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed batting fourth in the posted Dodgers lineup; odds feed lists him active for this game.
      • Season hit-game rate is 68.1% (92 of 135); L5 and L10 are both 60%.
      • His .4047 xwOBA versus right-handers is a strong split against Jacob Misiorowski, whose season xwOBA allowed is .226.
      • He has only 3 hits in his last 5 and faces a high-strikeout starter with a 12.98 K/9.
    14. Jacob Misiorowski under 6 strikeoutsLong shot
      +355%Won

      Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi

      Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 37% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projection: 5.0 Ks from a 66.7-pitch last-three average, or 4.2 projected innings, at the recent 10.8 K/9.
      • Confirmed Brewers lineup is only 20.8% K versus right-handed pitching: 272 strikeouts in 1,308 lineup-specific PA.
      • Workload gate fails for YES: last four starts were 88, 68, 44, and 82 pitches; two were below 70 and only two reached 80.
      • Misiorowski owns a 13.0 season K/9 and two put-away weapons: 39.3% whiff four-seam usage and a 45.7% whiff curveball.
    15. Total runs under 6
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX No Vig MLBDown 42% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Milwaukee owns .3095 xwOBA versus lefties, triggering a -0.50-run offense ledger; Partial cap applies at -0.40.
      • Los Angeles has .3388 xwOBA versus righties, clears the .315 threshold; bullpens have 0.0 innings over three days.
      • Most likely loss: one early homer or walk-driven crooked inning breaks the six-run number.
    16. Los Angeles Dodgers under 6.5 total
      +78%Won

      Taken at −128 on FanDuel

      high-confidence main marketsDown 16% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Own probability 59.5%; fair price about -147 versus FanDuel -128.
      • Misiorowski: 2.13 xERA and .226 xwOBA allowed; Skubal: 2.94 xERA and .266 xwOBA allowed.
      • Brewers versus left-handed pitching: .3095 xwOBA; Dodgers versus right-handed pitching: .3388 xwOBA.
      • The Dodgers’ .3388 xwOBA versus right-handers is the matchup’s clearest path to seven runs.
    17. 2nd-inning tie NO
      +194%Won

      Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Moneyline anchor is essentially 50/50: Dodgers 50.5% YES and Brewers 50.0% NO on Polymarket US.
      • Full-game total anchor is 6.5, with Under at 55%; sharp reference is 6.0 at Pinnacle, confirming a low-scoring environment.
      • 2026 MLB scoring is right-skewed and overdispersed: 9.17 runs/game, variance 22.3, 90th percentile 15; the fitted low-run inning process retains substantial zero mass.
      • A scoreless second inning is the modal low-run outcome; two zeros produce the tie immediately.
    18. YRFI (any run)
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

      First PitchDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle totals_1st_1_innings is Over 0.5 +166 / Under -199; devigged YRFI reference is 36.1%.
      • posted top threes are Betts-Freeman-Smith vs RHP Misiorowski and Chourio-Turang-Contreras vs LHP Skubal; the six-hitter xwOBA read is strong enough for 40%.
      • Polymarket US prices F5 Over 2.5 at 56%; that supports a higher first-frame rate than a bare 36% prior, without treating it as a YRFI price.
      • The 40% estimate is only about four points above Pinnacle's 36.1% sharp reference; normal one-inning variance dominates.
    19. Jackson Chourio over 0.5 hitsFavorite
      +47%Won

      Taken at −215 on DraftKings

      Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 8 of his last 10 appearances produced at least one hit.
      • .321 average versus left-handed pitching across 175 plate appearances.
      • Confirmed batting first in the Brewers lineup at the 2:50 PM PDT roster check.
      • Tarik Skubal holds right-handed hitters to a .1987 average over 490 plate appearances.
    20. Milwaukee Brewers run line −1.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book levels: Brewers 3, Dodgers 3; thin-at-quote and deep-total agree, levels do not corroborate.
      • Directional coherence: backing Brewers -1.5, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
      • Venue self-reference has no independent confirmation; a stale quote or single participant can mimic patient demand.
    21. Will Smith 1+ hits
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

      Small BallDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed batting third; versus RHP, Smith owns .3942 xwOBA and .280 average across 201 PA.
      • Misiorowski's current playoff profile is 4.0 IP on 88 pitches, supporting roughly four Smith plate appearances.
      • Misiorowski's playoff profile still shows a .226 xwOBA allowed and 33.3% strikeout rate.
    22. Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers under 6.5 total runs
      +78%Won

      Taken at −128 on FanDuel

      Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 5.4 total runs; fair total 5.5; Under 6.5 win probability 62.5%; push probability 0%; release 6:10 PM CDT.
      • Both official nine-man lineups were confirmed at 6:10 PM CDT; Misiorowski and Skubal combine for elite 2026 strikeout/FIP profiles.
      • Projected run suppression is reinforced by 68°F, 1-mph wind, open retractable roof, and Moscoso's 2026 7.5-run umpire average.
      • The Dodgers' .338 team xwOBA versus right-handed pitching creates a path to an early crooked number.
    23. Jacob Misiorowski outs under 16.5
      +117%Won

      Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

      Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model puts Misiorowski below 17 outs 57% of the time; Kalshi NO costs 46c versus FanDuel's same-rung under at -106.
      • His latest postseason workload was only 4.0 innings on 88 pitches, with 16.01 pitches per inning; that is a direct efficiency/leash warning.
      • Current profile shows 4.0 IP and 88 pitches in the recent sample, versus 23.67 IP and 379 pitches across the regular-season L5 workload.
      • No announced pitch cap was found; the MLB preview confirms no formal workload limit for Misiorowski.
    24. Game extra inningsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 13¢ on Kalshi

      Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Both confirmed starters are capable: Skubal xERA 2.94 and Misiorowski xERA 2.13; low scoring compresses the score gap.
      • Matchup xwOBA is .3095 for Milwaukee versus LHP and .3388 for Los Angeles versus RHP; park factor is 96.
      • Clear, open-roof conditions with 1 mph wind and both bullpens at 0.0 IP over three days support a tight late-game shape.
      • The Dodgers' .3388 xwOBA versus right-handers is the stronger side of the matchup and can create a multi-run margin.
    25. Los Angeles Dodgers −1.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 36¢ on ProphetX

      Fade the ArmUp 79% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Misiorowski's 2026 TTO xwOBA rises from .179 (second trip) to .253 (third) and .239 (fourth), a visible decay signal.
      • Bullpen support favors the fade: Milwaukee logged 0 pitches and 0 innings over the last 3 days, with no back-to-back relievers.
      • Pinnacle shows Dodgers -1.5 at +220 versus ProphetX +180; this is projection-driven, not a claim that ProphetX is the best posted price.
      • Skubal remains an elite counter: 2.70 regular-season xFIP, 2.94 xERA, and 10.55 K/9.
    26. Max Muncy 4+ total basesLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 13¢ on Polymarket US

      Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed sixth in the Dodgers lineup against listed right-hander Jacob Misiorowski.
      • Neutral 100 HR park factor and closed-roof conditions remove a wind-in penalty.
      • A four-base threshold needs multiple-base-hit or home-run conversion; walks and singles do not help enough.
    27. First inning over 0.5 runs NOFavorite
      +54%Won

      Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

      Top of the FirstDown 39% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Posted top four versus hand: Dodgers xwOBA .326/.382/.394/.405 against RHP; Brewers .372/.291/.325/.357 against LHP.
      • Misiorowski's first-inning profile is 49.6% K and .1296 BA; Skubal is 31.4% K, .2277 BA, with 1 BB in 102 PA.
      • The full-game total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it answers different innings and dilutes this exact first-frame matchup.
      • Derived reference is not sharp-validated; the approximately 4-point edge is small enough for model error to erase.
    28. Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers over 0.5 runs in the 2nd inning
      +213%Won

      Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Liquid anchors imply a near-even game: Dodgers 51c, Brewers 49.5c.
      • Full-game total anchor is 5.5, with over 46.5c and under 54c; the low-scoring fit is internally coherent.
      • The 2nd-inning over is only 32c, versus 38, 39c for comparable 3rd, 5th inning over-0.5 contracts.
      • Both starters have strong current profiles, so early-inning scoring can undershoot the fitted flat-rate baseline.
    29. Milwaukee Brewers −2.5Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Internal coherence: Polymarket US moneyline is essentially even, Dodgers 50.5¢, Brewers 50.0¢.
      • Internal coherence: the 6.5 total anchor prices a low, right-skewed scoring environment, over 47.0¢, under 53.5¢.
      • Reweighting the 2023-present empirical run-differential shape to that 6.5 anchor gives Milwaukee 3+ runs better at roughly 24, 25%.
      • The fitted distribution is venue self-reference: no independent sharp price is used to set the anchors.
    30. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers over 6.5 total runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket

      Polymarket MLB Hot WalletsDown 5% over 276 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Polymarket’s live Over 6.5 contract was graded at 45.5¢, and the exact ladder contract was active and accepting orders.
    31. Los Angeles Dodgers first-five spread +1.5Favorite
      +33%Won

      Taken at 75¢ on Polymarket US

      Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed starters: Tarik Skubal (LAD) and Jacob Misiorowski (MIL); both probable flags are fresh and false-stale.
      • Skubal’s current profile shows 1.5 ERA over L3/L5 versus Misiorowski’s 4.5, with Skubal’s 0.67 WHIP supporting a narrow early margin.
      • Posted top five: LAD’s Freeman, Smith and Ohtani carry .3815/.3942/.4047 xwOBA versus right-handers; Milwaukee’s lineup is .3095 xwOBA versus left-handers.
      • Misiorowski brings a 13.5 K/9 and .339 CSW profile; Milwaukee can keep the Dodgers’ top order from converting its platoon advantage.
    32. First-five total under 4.5 runsFavorite
      +35%Won

      Taken at 74¢ on Polymarket US

      Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Tarik Skubal is confirmed fresh: 2.94 xERA, .266 xwOBA allowed, and a 31.4% first-inning K rate.
      • Jacob Misiorowski is confirmed fresh: 2.13 xERA, .226 xwOBA allowed, and a 49.6% first-inning K rate.
      • Posted top-five lineups are verified; elite starters should suppress the five-inning scoring tail despite strong opposing bats.
      • No independent sharp F5 total exists; this is a structural read without external corroboration.
    33. Milwaukee Brewers run line +1
      +69%Won

      Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

      Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • ProphetX board as_of_pt: 2026-10-11 4:14:58 PM PDT. Personnel gate passes: both probable starters posted, neither on IL.
      • Total flow leans over, but no second full-game board independently confirms the Brewers side.
    34. Total runs over 5.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

      Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    35. Jacob Misiorowski under 16.5 outs
      +102%Won

      Taken at +102 on DraftKings

      Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Recent five starts produced 12, 16, 9, 15, and 19 outs: under 16.5 in 4 of 5, averaging 14.2.
      • Last start ended after 4.0 innings and 88 pitches; the Dodgers confirmed all nine starters and carry a .3388 xwOBA versus right-handers.
      • Starter is confirmed, active, and the current odds were pulled at 4:14 PM PDT.
      • His full-season average is 17.47 outs per start, above this line.

    Questions

    Who won Dodgers vs. Brewers?

    The Brewers won 2-1 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.

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