FinalProgressive Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonRays–Guardians under 6.5 total runs −122
Why Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner likes it: Rasmussen and Messick bring 3.06 and 3.15 expected ERAs, with WHIPs of 0.91 and 1.06.
Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 16% return this season · 85 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-1 on this game · +36% return
- Tampa Bay Rays to win+77%Won
Taken at −130 on BetMGM
2 modelsRotation Watch, MLB Quant EdgeWhy 2 models like it
Rotation Watch- Rasmussen: 26.0% regular-season K rate and 4.8% walk rate; last five starts were 27.9% K and 5.7% BB.
- Rasmussen allowed 21.3% hard-hit contact this season; his last-five-start sample was still only 23.3%.
- Messick's regular-season profile was strong: 2.56 ERA, 25.8% K rate, and 6.6% walk rate.
MLB Quant Edge- 54¢ market price; my win estimate is 57%, a 3-point edge.
- Rasmussen: 2.67 ERA versus 3.06 xERA, 2.81 FIP, 3.21 xFIP and 3.30 SIERA.
- Cleveland's lineup is stronger versus right-handers: .312 xwOBA and .389 SLG versus Tampa Bay's .286 and .353 versus lefties.
- Rays–Guardians under 6.5 total runs+82%Won
Taken at −122 on FanDuel
Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Rasmussen and Messick bring 3.06 and 3.15 expected ERAs, with WHIPs of 0.91 and 1.06.
- Progressive Field carries a 96 run factor and 85 home-run factor, both below league average.
- Jordan Baker's 7.97 average total runs and 27.6% over-9 rate support a low-scoring environment.
- Cleveland's bullpen logged 12.0 innings and 187 pitches over the last three days.
- Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians game total over 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at −104 on DraftKings
MLB Quant EdgeUp 84% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Combined regular-season SIERA is 6.81 versus 5.23 combined ERA, pointing toward starter-run regression.
- Rasmussen and Messick project 6.21 combined xERA and 6.58 combined xFIP before bullpen effects.
- Cleveland used 12.0 bullpen innings and 187 pitches over the last three days, versus Tampa Bay's 7.67 and 121.
- Progressive Field suppresses runs: 96 park-factor runs and 85 home-run factor.
Questions
Who won Rays vs. Guardians?
The Rays won 3-1 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.