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FinalTropicana Field
Guardians85-77
3–7Final
Rays98-64
Score by period
Team123456789T
CLE0000010203
TB02100022–7

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tampa Bay Rays to win −150

Why Brewing MLB Ml likes it: Freddy Peralta brings 32 regular-season starts and 169 innings; Shawn Armstrong is a confirmed opener with 0 starts and 35.3 innings.

Brewing MLB MlUp 27% return this season · 70 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 29-17 on this game · +22% return

  1. Tampa Bay Rays to win13 models agreeHigh conviction
    +67%Won

    Taken at −150 on FanDuel

    13 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, weak-pitcher fade ML #1180 +11
    Why 13 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Freddy Peralta brings 32 regular-season starts and 169 innings; Shawn Armstrong is a confirmed opener with 0 starts and 35.3 innings.
    • Tampa Bay's bullpen used 5.67 innings and 99 pitches in three days versus Cleveland's 15.0 innings and 228 pitches.
    • Peralta's full-season ERA was 4.31 with a .302 xwOBA allowed; this is an advantage, not a dominant ace projection.
    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    • Shawn Armstrong is confirmed/listed and carries a 1.36 WHIP, clearing the vulnerability gate.
    • Tampa Bay's posted lineup versus right-handers has .417 SLG and an 18.1% K rate.
    • Armstrong's season xwOBA allowed is only .2965 and his 4.58 ERA is below the 5.00 vulnerability threshold; the WHIP/role signal may overstate weakness.
    Drift
    • Power rating 61.5%: Tampa Bay has a +86 run differential versus Cleveland's +11, with a .2575/.4008 batting line versus .2383/.3800.
    • Tampa Bay's regular-season pitching was stronger: 3.69 ERA and 1.14 WHIP versus Cleveland's 3.77 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.
    • Most likely loss: Armstrong's opener/bulk deployment limits Tampa Bay's platoon advantage and Cleveland's bullpen recovers enough to suppress Rays scoring.
    Pen Check
    • 65% model win probability versus 58.3% devigged market probability.
    • Peralta is confirmed probable with a 0.79 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 0.84 L3 ERA; Armstrong's 2026 profile is 4.59 ERA/1.36 WHIP.
    • Armstrong's role may be short, making Cleveland's heavily used bullpen less relevant if the opener succeeds and the Guardians reach Tampa's middle relief.
  2. Freddy Peralta over 4.5 strikeouts2 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +128 on FanDuel

    2 modelsMLB HunterV2, Señor Strikeouts
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB HunterV2
    • Model: 53.0% over probability versus 41.9% sharp-market fair probability; +11.1 points.
    • Chad Fairchild's Peralta fit is positive with a +1.89 z-score.
    • The 4.5 line has no push protection; one borderline strikeout decides the ticket.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Peralta averaged 4.6 strikeouts across his last five starts, with 7.39 K/9 over that span.
    • Confirmed starter and six days since his last start; his 9-pitch relief appearance two days ago was light.
    • Peralta went over 4.5 in only 2 of his last 5 starts; recent strikeout variance is substantial.
  3. Tampa Bay Rays spread −1.5High conviction
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rays lead 2026 offense 103.3 to 97.89 wRC+; team ERA-minus edge is 87.96 to 89.28.
    • Peralta is confirmed at 3.84 xERA; Cleveland lists Armstrong with 0 starts, while its bullpen logged 228 pitches in three days versus Tampa Bay's 99.
    • Most likely loss: Tampa Bay wins a one-run game, leaving the -1.5 run line uncovered.
  4. Total runs over 8.5
    +203%Won

    Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskDown 15% last 7 days
  5. Brayan Rocchio HRR YES 0.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Built same-event BetMGM reference: hit 51.0%, run 28.4%, RBI 23.9%; independent union 73.3%, 12.5% haircut gives fair 64%.
    • No. 9 spot limits opportunity; three or fewer PA makes the 68% model fragile.
  6. Junior Caminero RBIs over 0.5
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed No. 4 lineup spot projects 4.3 PA, with 101 RBI in 702 regular-season PA and a .3423 xwOBA versus right-handers over 532 PA.
    • RBI opportunity is volatile and the warehouse lacks Caminero's hand-specific RBI rate; the 20% haircut to his overall RBI-per-PA baseline is judgmental.
Show all 33 picks
  1. Tampa Bay Rays 6th-inning winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 18¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • F5 Rays winner is 48c and full-game Rays moneyline is 58.5c.
    • Cleveland logged 228 bullpen pitches and 15.0 innings in three days; Tampa Bay logged 99 and 5.67.
    • Peralta averages 5.28 innings per start, while Armstrong's current Cleveland row shows only 1.0 inning and 13 pitches.
    • The draw is still modal at 65c; a scoreless or tied sixth loses this contract.
  2. Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays first-inning run
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 8% over 127 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed top-four orders combine for .329 CLE and .343 TB average xwOBA versus right-handers.
    • NRFI board shows team first-inning scoreless rates of 67.9% TB and 71.6% CLE, implying 51.4% YRFI before matchup adjustment.
    • Armstrong's 12.3% 2026 BB rate and 93.36 mph fastball allowed .3365 xwOBA on the pitch.
    • Armstrong has only 4 first-inning plate appearances in the 2026 sample; the opener role creates wide uncertainty.
  3. 3-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +28900

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quoted the exact three-leg slip +290 with a $100 maximum stake.
    • Philadelphia beat Colorado 7-3 in January; NHL goalie and overtime variance remains material.
  4. Freddy Peralta 5 or more strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Screened all 6 Peralta rungs: both sides quoted, no placeholder prices; 0 quote exclusions.
    • Venue ladder is monotone: 3+ .79, 4+ .60, 5+ .40, 6+ .26, 7+ .14, 8+ .07.
    • Model: 5.3 IP mean with a 4.0, 5.5 IP center; K distribution is 3+ .75, 4+ .62, 5+ .48, 6+ .34.
    • Tampa Bay's bullpen is fresh: 5.67 innings and 99 pitches over three days, shortening the innings tail.
  5. First-inning runs over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • TB/CLE first-inning scoreless rates (.679/.716) imply a 51.4% any-run baseline.
    • Confirmed top fours are Kwan-Ramírez-DeLauter-Adell and Díaz-Aranda-Hicks-Caminero.
    • Those eight listed hitters carry current xwOBA values from .318 to .360; team RHP splits are .311/.311.
    • Armstrong has only one 2026 first-inning game and four plate appearances; that tendency is extremely thin.
  6. Freddy Peralta under 4.5 strikeouts
    +63%Won

    Taken at −160 on DraftKings

    K-Zone FadeUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Peralta's regular-season 8.31 K/9 fell to 7.88 over his last three starts.
    • Peralta averaged 82.5 pitches and 5.33 innings per start in the current postseason sample.
    • The price is expensive at -160; my edge is narrow and variance can dominate.
  7. Tampa Bay Rays under 3.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tampa Bay's 15-day xwOBA versus right-handers is .2402 over 124 PA, versus .3113 season-to-date.
    • The confirmed Rays order faces right-hander Shawn Armstrong; the directional matchup is verified, not assumed.
    • Tropicana's current run factor is 96, with a dome, 71°F and no wind; that offsets some opener-driven over risk.
    • Shawn Armstrong has only 35.3 regular-season innings and is an opener; Cleveland's bullpen threw 228 pitches and 15.0 innings over the last three days.
  8. Cleveland Guardians under 2.5 team runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +110 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 106% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the structural lag: Cleveland under 2.5 is +110 despite Peralta’s .79 ERA, .97 WHIP, and .302 xwOBA allowed.
    • last three starts: 16.0 IP, 258 pitches, 16.1 P/IP, and one earned run; workload clears the 5-IP gate.
    • weighted Statcast deltas are +3.20 mph velocity and +34 rpm spin versus his 2026 baseline; no verified physical decay.
    • burn believability is Medium: Cleveland averaged 3.8 runs across its last 10, so this is not a Ghost Offense gate.
  9. Freddy Peralta over 14.5 outs
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on BetMGM

    PICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home runUp 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 23/32 regular-season starts cleared 14.5 outs (71.9%); average was 15.84 outs.
    • 4/5 most recent comparable starts and 8/10 prior comparable starts cleared the line.
    • Confirmed full-time starter: 32 regular-season starts, 169 innings, five days since his last start.
    • Peralta threw 9 pitches over 2 outs in relief on October 17, creating possible workload or leash uncertainty.
  10. Total runs under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX No Vig MLBDown 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ledger: Tampa Bay .2856 xwOBA vs RHP/left-handed Shawn Armstrong triggers -0.50 runs, capped at -0.40 Partial; Cleveland .3111 vs RHP receives no debit.
    • Most likely loss: 7 or more runs, especially if Tampa Bay's opener/bulk deployment fails and Cleveland converts the +0.20 bullpen-fatigue ledger.
  11. First-five innings drawLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 19¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US moneyline anchor makes Tampa Bay a modest 58.5% full-game favorite, not a dominant side.
    • The liquid 6.5 total rung is 54¢ over; 7.5 is 40.5¢ over, placing the scoring center around 6.5, 7 runs.
    • The F5 total ladder is coherent with roughly 3, 3.5 runs: over 2.5 is 67¢ and over 3.5 is 51¢.
    • Mapping the full-game distribution to five innings is uncertain; starter efficiency and pitch-count decisions matter.
  12. Freddy Peralta over 1.5 earned runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +125 on BetMGM

    Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER ModelDown 34% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Peralta averaged 82.5 pitches and 5.33 innings in three playoff appearances; six days' rest supports a normal workload.
    • Only 11.33 playoff innings and a 0.79 playoff ERA create meaningful small-sample downside to the over.
  13. Chase DeLauter over 0.5 hits
    +54%Won

    Taken at −185 on BetMGM

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 71%; BetMGM -185 implies 64.9%: +6.1 points, +9.4% relative.
    • DeLauter went 8-2 over the last 10 playoff games on this exact hit line, with 37 AB and 11 hits.
    • Season profile: .287 AVG, .346 xwOBA, 131.4 wRC+; confirmed third in the batting order.
    • Peralta has a 0.79 playoff ERA and 0.30 xwOBA allowed across three appearances, including two starts.
  14. Cleveland Guardians +1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
  15. Game total over 7
    +99%Won

    Taken at −101 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 7.8 runs; fair total line 7.8; Over 7 win probability 54%; push probability 15%; model snapshot 6:36 PM CDT.
    • Both confirmed lineups are posted as of 6:36 PM CDT; Tampa Bay's RHP lineup owns a .311 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching, while Cleveland's is .311.
    • Cleveland's bullpen has thrown 15.0 innings and 228 pitches in the last three days, versus Tampa Bay's 5.7 innings and 99 pitches.
    • Peralta's 0.30 xwOBA allowed and 3.84 xERA can suppress Cleveland's scoring, especially if he reaches a normal 90-pitch workload.
  16. Yandy Diaz over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 of Yandy's last 5 playoff games cleared 1.5; average was 3.0 combined H+R+RBI.
    • Yandy is hitting .3009 with a .4459 SLG versus right-handers this season.
    • Tampa Bay's posted lineup bats Yandy first against Shawn Armstrong, whose 4.58 ERA and 1.36 WHIP invite traffic.
    • The five-game playoff sample is small and heavily influenced by a 6-stat game.
  17. Freddy Peralta pitcher outs over 14.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Peralta's latest two postseason rolling starts average 5.33 innings and 82.5 pitches; the 15-out threshold is exactly five innings.
    • His full-season Rays profile shows 5.28 innings and 92.47 pitches per start, while Cleveland's right-handed matchup has a modest 20.7% K rate, supporting pitch efficiency rather than a stuff-based case.
    • MLB's current Game 6 report says his nine-pitch relief appearance replaced a between-starts session and he should be ready without limitations; Tampa Bay's bullpen workload is only 5.67 innings over three days.
    • No announced pitch cap is reported, but postseason leverage and a fresh-enough Tampa Bay bullpen can still shorten the leash after five innings.
  18. Game extra inningsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 11¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own run-distribution model: roughly CLE 2.5, TB 3.4 runs; direct Poisson tie-after-nine estimate is about 15%.
    • Both offenses project below a neutral MLB scoring environment: .311 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching, with Tampa Bay at 18.1% K and Cleveland at 20.7%.
    • Cleveland's bullpen has thrown 15.0 innings and 228 pitches over three days, which can widen late-inning run variance and reduce tie probability.
  19. Total runs under 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rays moneyline flow is $15,561 at -140; Rays -1.5 flow is $9,473 at +158; both support a controlled Rays win.
    • Peralta has 3.84 expected ERA and 0.97 WHIP; Tampa relief used 99 pitches versus Cleveland's 228. Pinnacle shows Rays -147 and under 7 -121.
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-19 2:24:43 PM PDT. Venue self-reference is the primary signal; sharp reference corroborates.
    • Exactly 7 runs pushes; 8 or more loses. The most likely failure is an early Cleveland run against Armstrong followed by bullpen scoring.
  20. Freddy Peralta over 14.5 outs recorded
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on BetMGM

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected 16.2 outs; 62% clear probability, a 1.7-out edge over 14.5.
    • Recent five starts: 18, 14, 16, 17, 15 outs; four cleared, averaging 88.2 pitches.
    • Confirmed starter with 32 regular-season starts under Kevin Cash; six days’ rest and no workload-limit flag.
    • The recent postseason sample includes a 14-out start, showing meaningful early-hook variance.
  21. Jo Adell over 1.5 total bases
    +203%Won

    Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tropicana Field carries a 110 HR park factor; the dome removes wind uncertainty rather than adding a weather penalty.
    • DraftKings lists the same 1.5-TB over at +165, about 37.7% raw implied versus Polymarket US at 33¢.
    • Only 42 playoff plate appearances underpin the current Adell batted-ball sample; the projection is noisy.
  22. Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays over 0.5 runs in the 3rd inning
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US anchors imply roughly 58% Tampa Bay win probability and a 6.5, 7.0 run game center.
    • The full-game total ladder prices over 6.5 at 53.5% and over 7.5 at 40.5%, a coherent moderate-scoring baseline.
    • Sharp reference agrees with the anchor: Pinnacle's 6.5 total prices over at 53.1% devigged.
    • Peralta and Armstrong are expected starters; starter quality can suppress the third inning versus a flat-rate allocation.
  23. Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +104 on FanDuel

    MLB Quant EdgeUp 84% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tropicana Field carries a 96 park factor for runs, suppressing the scoring environment.
    • Both starters show roughly 21% hard-hit rates allowed; Peralta also carries a 3.84 xERA against a 4.31 ERA.
    • Both offenses are at .311 versus-hand xwOBA, while Cleveland's .387 slugging versus right-handers is modest.
    • Cleveland's bullpen has absorbed 15.0 innings and 228 pitches in three days, a direct over threat.
  24. Cleveland Guardians +1.5 first five inningsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Class: PROJECTION, posted top-five lineups are nearly identical versus right-handed pitching by xwOBA: Cleveland .332, Tampa Bay .332.
    • Both starters are confirmed fresh: Freddy Peralta owns a 3.84 regular-season xERA and 8.31 K/9; the +1.5 cushion absorbs a one-run Tampa Bay lead.
    • Armstrong has 35.33 regular-season innings and zero regular-season starts, so opener usage could expose Cleveland to multiple pitchers and a wide path to a two-run deficit.
  25. Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays under 4.5 first-five total runs
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • both confirmed top-five orders average roughly .332 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
    • Freddy Peralta owns a 3.84 2026 xERA and .302 xwOBA allowed; his playoff ERA is 0.79 across 11.33 innings.
    • Cleveland's bullpen plan follows the Shawn Armstrong opener with quality arms: Cade Smith 1.95 ERA, Erik Sabrowski 2.61, Hunter Gaddis 2.98.
    • Cleveland is using a bullpen game; the bulk-inning allocation after Armstrong is not fixed, so workload and matchup quality are uncertain.
  26. Tampa Bay Rays first-five to win
    +65%Won

    Taken at −154 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair probability 64%; DraftKings -154 implies 60.6%, a 3.4-point edge.
    • Freddy Peralta is confirmed and owns a 3.84 expected ERA with 8.31 K/9 over 169 regular-season innings.
    • Cleveland’s confirmed lineup owns only a .242/.387/.311 line versus right-handed pitching.
    • Peralta’s 4.31 regular-season ERA and 1.32 WHIP are materially worse than his small postseason sample.
  27. Tampa Bay Rays −1.5
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cleveland's bullpen logged 15.0 innings and 228 pitches over three days versus Tampa Bay's 5.67 innings and 99 pitches.
    • Freddy Peralta's 0.96 ERA over his last 28 innings gives Tampa the stronger confirmed starter form; the board has not fully reflected the run-margin upside.
    • Most likely loss: Cleveland keeps it close despite the pitching and bullpen gap; -1.5 is much more fragile than the Rays moneyline.

Questions

Who won Guardians vs. Rays?

The Rays won 7-3 on Monday, Oct 19, 2026.

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