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FinalAmerican Family Field
Rays98-64
2–3Final
Brewers103-59
Score by period
Team123456789T
TB0001000012
MIL20000010–3

Top model pick, graded

Won

Nick Martinez over 1.5 earned runs −128

Why Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER Model likes it: Model: 5.1 expected IP and 2.22 expected ER produce 65.0% over probability; fair line -186.

Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER ModelDown 3% this season · 492 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 46-12 on this game · +466% return

  1. Milwaukee Brewers to win16 models agree
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

    16 modelsFade the Arm, Alex's Sharp Line Scanner +14
    Why 16 models like it
    Fade the Arm
    • Martinez's regular-season xFIP is 4.47 and xERA 3.98 versus a 3.10 ERA; the underlying run-prevention profile is worse.
    • TTO decay, Martinez's 2026 xwOBA allowed rises from .2747 in TTO1 to .3453 in TTO2 and .3070 in TTO3.
    • Most likely loss: Jacob Misiorowski's 2.13 xERA, 2.29 xFIP and 33.9% CSW suppress Tampa's confirmed lineup.
    Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
    • Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10; Rays are 5-5.
    • Misiorowski's .226 xwOBA allowed is materially better than Martinez's .307; both starters and lineups are confirmed.
    • The market already absorbed a 26-cent move; DraftKings -186 is six cents worse than current Pinnacle.
    Drift
    • Power rating 68.0% Milwaukee versus 63.2% Pinnacle devigged fair; gap +4.8p.
    • Milwaukee's +214 run differential and 63.3% pythagorean win rate lead Tampa Bay's +86 and 55.7%.
    • The model's starter adjustment may overstate Misiorowski's edge in a single playoff game.
    Pen Check
    • Misiorowski's 2026 profile: 2.13 xERA, .226 xwOBA allowed, 12.98 K/9 and 36.3% whiff rate.
    • Martinez: 3.98 xERA, .307 xwOBA allowed, 5.45 K/9 and 17.6% whiff rate; the starting-pitching gap drives the handicap.
    • Martinez has a 3.00 postseason ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 9 playoff innings, so the full-season gap may overstate tonight's separation.
  2. Jacob Misiorowski under 6.5 strikeouts6 models agree
    +102%Won

    Taken at +102 on FanDuel

    6 modelsK’s, K-Zone Fade +4
    Why 6 models like it
    K’s
    • TB's confirmed right-handed lineup owns an 18.1% K rate and 19.8% whiff rate versus righties across 4,623 PA.
    • Misiorowski's last 10 starts produced 59 Ks in 202 batters faced (29.2%); his two current postseason starts are 11 Ks in 37 BF (29.7%).
    • Recent postseason workload is only two starts and may expand beyond the 4.0-4.33 IP range; there is no formal pitch-limit flag.
    K-Zone Fade
    • Misiorowski's 2026 regular-season K/9 fell from 12.98 to 10.80 over his last three starts.
    • The trend sample is small: his current postseason row covers only two starts.
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • 5.3 projected strikeouts versus the 6.5 line: 1.2-K gap clears the 0.75-K gate.
    • Misiorowski's recent five-start K/9 is 11.41; his two postseason starts produced 6 and 5 Ks in 18 and 19 batters faced.
    • Misiorowski's 12.98 season K/9 is elite; 22-plus batters faced could overwhelm the under.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Confirmed starter with 30 starts, 174.7 innings, and a documented established workload.
    • Exact L10: under 6.5 strikeouts went 8-2, with no pushes; recent starts averaged 5.9 strikeouts.
    • The under loses at seven strikeouts; Misiorowski reached seven or more in 2 of his last 10 starts.
  3. Milwaukee Brewers −1.54 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsFade the Arm, ProphetX Pairs +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Fade the Arm
    • Nick Martinez carries a 4.47 xFIP, 3.98 xERA and 107.9 xFIP-minus against a 3.10 ERA; the underlying profile is worse than the headline ERA.
    • TTO decay, Martinez's allowed xwOBA rises from .275 in TTO1 to .345 in TTO2, then remains about .307/.306 in later trips.
    • Most likely loss: Milwaukee wins by exactly one run, which does not cover -1.5.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • xFIP gap is +2.18: Nick Martinez 4.47 minus Jacob Misiorowski 2.29, clearing the +0.75 pitching-side gate.
    • Personnel gate cleared: both starters and batting orders were confirmed; neither starter appeared on the active IL.
    • A one-run Brewers win loses the -1.5 run line despite winning the game.
    MLB Quant Edge
    • Misiorowski: 1.80 ERA versus 2.13 xERA, 2.17 xFIP, and 2.35 SIERA; elite underlying run prevention.
    • Martinez: 3.10 ERA versus 3.98 xERA, 4.47 xFIP, and 4.63 SIERA; strongest regression signal in the matchup.
    • A run-line ticket loses on any one-run Brewers win; the market prices that margin risk at roughly 41.5% fair probability.
    Long Way Home
    • Brewers' Misiorowski owns a .226 2026 xwOBA-against and 12.98 K/9 versus Rays .312 xwOBA versus right-handers.
    • Milwaukee's lineup posts .327 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; Tampa Bay is at .312 in the same split.
    • Most likely loss: Martinez limits contact damage and Tampa Bay keeps the game within one run.
  4. Milwaukee Brewers first-five to winFavorite4 models agree
    +48%Won

    Taken at −210 on DraftKings

    4 modelsPuddinsPOP F5 MLB, EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner +2
    Why 4 models like it
    PuddinsPOP F5 MLB
    • Estimated Brewers F5 win probability 73%; fair price about -270 versus DraftKings -210.
    • Jacob Misiorowski: 1.80 ERA, 2.13 xERA, .226 xwOBA allowed, 12.98 K/9 in 2026.
    • Pinnacle did not post an F5 line; DK -210 is compared with FanDuel/BetMGM -220, not a sharp F5 quote.
    EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner
    • Misiorowski: 1.80 ERA, .226 xwOBA allowed, 12.98 K/9 over 30 starts.
    • Martinez: 3.10 ERA, .307 xwOBA allowed, 5.45 K/9 over 31 starts.
    • Rays' lineup owns a low 18.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Own estimate: 69% Brewers F5 win; fair about -223 versus DraftKings -210.
    • Misiorowski's season xwOBA allowed .226 and 12.98 K/9; Martinez is at .307 and 5.45.
    • A tie after five is a push, not a win; the tie probability is not directly published.
    Loose Cohort MLB
    • My 60% win estimate implies roughly +12% at the 53.5c graded price; this is a cohort-only Tier 3 claim because no sharp same-market reference exists.
    • Most likely loss: Nick Martinez outduels Jacob Misiorowski and Tampa leads or ties after five innings.
  5. Game total under 6.52 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSelective Pressure, Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    Why 2 models like it
    Selective Pressure
    • Jacob Misiorowski: 3.24 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 11.88 K/9 and .226 xwOBA allowed in the current-game dossier.
    • Nick Martinez: 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 9.0 innings across his last five Tampa Bay starts.
    • Milwaukee's .327 xwOBA versus right-handers and strong recent 5-0 form can break the low total quickly.
    Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 5.9 projected total runs; fair total line 6.0; win probability 58%; push probability 0% (6:21 PM CDT).
    • Misiorowski: 2.13 xERA, .226 xwOBA allowed, 12.98 K/9; his 99.76-mph fastball suppresses Tampa Bay's contact quality.
    • Milwaukee's .327 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching is the stronger offense and can punish Martinez early.
  6. Nick Martinez over 1.5 earned runsHigh conviction
    +78%Won

    Taken at −128 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER ModelDown 34% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 5.1 expected IP and 2.22 expected ER produce 65.0% over probability; fair line -186.
    • Milwaukee owns a .3262 30-day and .327 season xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
    • Martinez has 3.98 xERA, 11.5% K-BB%, 98.2 Stuff+, 23.2% hard-hit allowed, and 3.9% barrels allowed.
    • American Family Field is closed with a 96 runs factor and 98 HR factor; Gabe Morales averages only 7.87 total runs.
Show all 31 picks
  1. Victor Mesa Jr. under 0.5 hitsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1 hit in his last 5 postseason games: 0.20 hits per game, 60% below the 0.5 line.
    • His postseason profile is .129 with 4 hits in 31 at-bats across 9 games.
    • Mesa is officially confirmed in the seventh spot, satisfying the active-and-starting gate.
    • Nine postseason games and 31 at-bats are a thin recent sample.
  2. Junior Caminero HRR YES 0.5Favorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatDown 100% last 7 days
  3. Junior Caminero over 1.5 total bases
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 702 PA profile: 7.5% barrel rate, 34.1% hard-hit rate, .248 ISO, 86.3 mph average exit velocity.
    • 48.6% pull rate and 35.9% fly-ball rate create multiple extra-base paths beyond a home run.
    • Confirmed cleanup hitter; Pinnacle's +545 HR reference modestly supports the 14¢ Polymarket HR baseline.
    • American Family Field's HR factor is 0.98, the roof is closed, and the 1 mph wind supplies no boost.
  4. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    +24900%Won

    Taken at +24900

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Duke +123: last-five offense EPA/play is +0.27 versus Virginia's +0.10, with a +16.0 recent scoring margin.
    • Duke's recent explosive-play rate is 15.7% versus Virginia's 8.8%; Virginia's defense has allowed +0.12 EPA/play.
    • Brewers -176: Jacob Misiorowski owns a 1.80 ERA, 12.98 K/9 and .226 expected wOBA allowed versus Nick Martinez's 3.10 ERA, 5.45 K/9 and .307.
    • Brewers lineups were last-game projections, not confirmed; plate umpire and game-weather inputs were not yet published.
  5. Nick Martinez 4+ pitching strikeouts
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nick Martinez averaged 5.81 IP and 3.52 strikeouts across 31 starts; 17 of 31 reached four or more.
    • Empirical innings proxy: below four IP 6.5%, four-to-under-six 35.5%, six-plus 58.1%; model K split is 48.5% below four and 51.5% at four-plus.
    • The last five starts produced four-plus strikeouts only twice, versus 17 of 31 for the full season.
  6. Jacob Misiorowski over 6.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −130 on FanDuel

    EV & Line Value Multi-Sport ScannerDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Misiorowski posted a 12.98 K/9 season baseline across 30 starts.
    • His recent profile still shows an 11.41 K/9 L5 mark, supporting a roughly 7-8 strikeout expectation.
    • FanDuel's -130 is materially better than DraftKings -148 and BetMGM -135.
    • Tampa Bay has the lower-K right-handed matchup: 18.1% K rate and 19.8% whiff rate.
  7. Game total over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +104 on FanDuel

    MLB HunterV2Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent F5 run model projects 3.9 runs and 55% probability of 4+.
    • Milwaukee averages 2.87 F5 runs; Tampa Bay allows 2.07 F5 runs.
    • Tampa Bay averages 2.57 F5 runs; Milwaukee allows 2.09 F5 runs.
    • Jacob Misiorowski has a .226 xwOBA allowed, creating a real 1-2 run outcome risk.
  8. Tampa Bay Rays under 2.5 team runs
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jacob Misiorowski: 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 12.98 K/9, .226 xwOBA allowed, 2.13 xERA.
    • American Family Field is a 96-run-factor park with the roof closed, a modest scoring suppressor.
    • Tampa's top four include Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero; one big inning clears 2.5.
  9. Junior Caminero over 0.5 hits
    +61%Won

    Taken at −165 on BetMGM

    PICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home runUp 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 126/171 (73.7%) exact-hit games in 2026; 119/162 regular season and 7/9 postseason.
    • Exact hit line cleared in 4/5 L5 and 7/10 L10 games; both gates pass.
    • 34.1% hard-hit rate, 7.5% barrel rate, .364 xwOBA and .499 xSLG-quality estimate.
    • Jacob Misiorowski's .226 xwOBA allowed and 12.98 K/9 are materially difficult contact conditions.
  10. Tampa Bay Rays under 5.5 runsFavorite
    +14%Won

    Taken at −700 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 80% recent hit rate: Tampa Bay scored 5 or fewer in 8 of its last 10 games.
    • Jacob Misiorowski's .226 xwOBA allowed is 28.6% below the .3164 right-handed-pitching league baseline.
    • Misiorowski is confirmed as Milwaukee's starter; Tampa's lineup is confirmed.
    • Tampa scored 7 runs in two of the last 10, so the recent trend is not a clean 90% run.
  11. Taylor Walls under 0.5 RBIsFavorite
    +12%Won

    Taken at −840 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 100% under rate: 0 RBIs in each of Walls' last 10 games.
    • Walls' .2681 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching is 15.3% below the .3164 league baseline.
    • Confirmed ninth in Tampa Bay's lineup, limiting expected plate appearances.
    • A single extra-base hit or bases-loaded opportunity can decide a one-event RBI prop.
  12. Nick Martinez under 3.5 pitching strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −158 on DraftKings

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection 2.9 Ks: 4.0 projected IP from 64.0 average pitches across his last three starts and blended 6.5 K/9.
    • Confirmed Milwaukee lineup owns a 22.6% K rate versus right-handers (789 strikeouts in 3,490 PA), only borderline for strikeouts.
    • Nick's last five starts produced 3, 3, 1, 7, and 3 Ks; his last four pitch counts were 79, 63, 50, and 94.
    • His recent L3/L5 K/9 is 7.24/6.15, above the 5.45 season mark; one efficient outing can clear four.
  13. Jake Bauers over 0.5 hits
    +71%Won

    Taken at −140 on BetMGM

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed batting second; 4.2 PA per game across the exact 10-game sample.
    • Exact L10: 6 hits-over wins, 4 losses, 10 decided; no pushes.
    • Milwaukee ranks 2nd of 30 in team xwOBA versus right-handed pitching (.327); Bauers bats left.
    • Six wins in ten is a modest sample crossing regular season and playoffs.
  14. Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 F5 spreadFavorite
    +19%Won

    Taken at 84¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jacob Misiorowski: 2.13 xERA, 12.98 K/9, 0.80 WHIP, and 48.3% first-inning K rate.
    • Nick Martinez: 3.98 xERA, 5.45 K/9, 1.09 WHIP, and 18.1% first-inning K rate.
    • Confirmed top-five RHP matchups favor Milwaukee by derived xwOBA average, approximately .348 to Tampa Bay's .332.
    • this is a venue-only structural read, so the estimated 87% win chance is uncertain and confidence is capped.
  15. Brice Turang over 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −177 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed fifth in the lineup; Nick Martinez is confirmed, right-handed, with 3.00 ERA and .307 xwOBA allowed; grade 76/100.
    • The projection assumes a constant .289 vs-RHP hit rate and independent at-bats; it is not calibrated.
  16. Milwaukee Brewers F5 to winFavorite
    +48%Won

    Taken at −210 on DraftKings

    MLB Default PicksUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Misiorowski xFIP 2.29 vs Martinez 4.47: 2.18-run-quality advantage, +5 F5 ledger points.
    • Misiorowski xwOBA-against .226 vs Martinez .307: .081 advantage, +3 points; starter subtotal reaches the +8 cap.
    • Confirmed RHP lineups: Milwaukee .327 xwOBA vs RHP vs Tampa Bay .3116, +1 lineup point; top-six wOBA edge is only .005, no extra bonus.
    • No exact F5 moneyline quote from Pinnacle or Bet365, and F5 open-to-current movement is not captured; the anchor is the FD/DK/BetMGM median.
  17. Jacob Misiorowski under 16 pitcher outs
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • His last 5 starts averaged 13.0 outs (4.33 innings), 18.8% below the 16-out line.
    • His two current postseason starts produced 13 and 12 outs, both below this projection.
    • His last 5 pitch counts were 94, 88, 68, 44, and 82, averaging 75.2 pitches before this high-leverage start.
    • His full-season workload averaged 5.82 innings, approximately 17.5 outs, above this line.
  18. Game goes to extra inningsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 12¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Modeled means are approximately 2.5 Tampa Bay runs and 3.3 Milwaukee runs, with substantial low-score mass rather than a blowout distribution.
    • American Family Field is a 96 park-factor environment with the roof closed and zero wind, compressing the scoring distribution.
    • The posted 6.5 total supports a low-scoring structural setup; both confirmed lineups face right-handed starters.
    • Milwaukee's starting-pitcher xERA is 2.13 versus Nick Martinez's 3.98, creating a real margin risk that lowers extras probability.
  19. Jacob Misiorowski under 17 recorded outs
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent five starts recorded 15, 12, 16, 9, and 15 outs; none reached 17.
    • Misiorowski averaged 4.33 innings and 88 pitches across those five starts, below the 5.67-inning threshold.
    • October 3: Pat Murphy pulled him after 4 innings and 88 pitches as velocity dropped and pitch count climbed.
    • Rays' 18.1% right-handed lineup strikeout rate can produce efficient contact and extend his outing.
  20. Jacob Misiorowski under 16.5 outs recorded
    +78%Won

    Taken at −129 on DraftKings

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected 14.8 outs; 63% under probability, a 1.7-out edge over 16.5.
    • Last five starts: 13, 12, 16, 9, 15 outs; he cleared 16.5 zero times.
    • Milwaukee postseason starters averaged 11.38 outs; five of eight were pulled by the fourth-inning boundary.
    • Milwaukee bullpen availability is missing from the state feed, so conviction is capped at low.
  21. Tampa Bay Rays/Milwaukee Brewers 6th-inning total over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ML anchor implies roughly 63% Milwaukee win probability; full-game 6.5 total is a mutually consistent low-scoring anchor.
    • 2026 postseason scoring averaged 7.09 runs with a 7-run median; 62.9% of 35 games cleared 6.5, used to calibrate the right-skewed baseline.
    • F5 over 3.5 at 46c implies roughly 3.5 runs through five, leaving about 3 runs for innings 6-9.
    • Market history returned no change events, so the quote may be a static projection rather than an actively discovered price.
  22. Any run scored in the 1st inning
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    First PitchDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • confirmed top threes are Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, Chandler Simpson versus Jacob Misiorowski, and Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers, Christian Yelich versus Nick Martinez.
    • Against right-handed pitching, the six top-three xwOBAs are .344/.353/.284 and .339/.374/.320; Martinez's 1st-inning BA is .200 with an 18.1% K rate.
    • Misiorowski is a strong fast starter: 1st-inning BA .135 and K rate 48.3%, which can erase Tampa Bay's half.
  23. Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers F5 total under 4.5Favorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game total is 6.5, while the F5 ladder prices Under 4.5 at 68¢; Pinnacle offers no comparable F5 rung.
    • Jacob Misiorowski owns a 2.13 xERA, 33.9% CSW, 12.98 K/9, and .135 first-inning BA against.
    • Confirmed top-four RHP splits are solid rather than explosive: TB xwOBA .344/.353/.284/.344; MIL .339/.374/.320/.344.
    • Nick Martinez is the weaker starter at 3.98 xERA and 18.1% first-inning K rate; Milwaukee's Jake Bauers carries a .374 RHP xwOBA.
  24. Game total over 6.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book-level count: Over 3 versus Under 3; the third measure ties, while thin-at-quote plus deep-in-total agree.
    • ProphetX quote is Over 6.5 at 51.92 cents (-108). Directional check: backing over 6.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book levels tie 3-3, so participant-count corroboration is absent rather than supportive.
  25. Nick Martinez over 3.5 strikeouts
    +137%Won

    Taken at +137 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current TB profile: 6.15 K/9 over his last five starts versus 5.45 season-to-date.
    • Estimated win probability 51%; fair price about +96 versus DraftKings' +137.
    • Martinez is a confirmed starter and the full lineup was posted before the price check.
    • Season workload baseline is only about 3.5 strikeouts across his 5.8 innings per start.

Questions

Who won Rays vs. Brewers?

The Brewers won 3-2 on Friday, Oct 23, 2026.

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