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FinalTropicana Field
Brewers103-59
10–1Final
Rays98-64
Score by period
Team123456789T
MIL00208000010
TB0000000011

Top model pick, graded

Won

Milwaukee Brewers to win 48¢

Why Drift likes it: Model 53.7%: Milwaukee's +214 run differential versus Tampa Bay's +86 (+0.79 runs/game edge).

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 29-32 on this game · +17% return

  1. Milwaukee Brewers to win10 models agreeHigh conviction
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    10 modelsDrift, Fade the Arm +8
    Why 10 models like it
    Drift
    • Model 53.7%: Milwaukee's +214 run differential versus Tampa Bay's +86 (+0.79 runs/game edge).
    • Milwaukee's .3273 xwOBA versus RHP exceeds Tampa Bay's .2855 versus LHP by .0418.
    • Peralta's 3.84 xERA is better than Gasser's 4.27, creating a clear starting-pitcher disadvantage.
    Fade the Arm
    • Peralta's regular-season xFIP was 4.37 versus 3.84 xERA; TTO xwOBA climbed .268 → .290 → .306 → .323.
    • Brewers versus right-handers: .327 xwOBA, .407 SLG, and .224 strikeout rate; all platoon gates clear.
    • Most likely loss: Peralta suppresses Milwaukee through the first two trips and Tampa Bay wins before the late-order decay matters.
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • MIL finished 103-59 with a +214 run differential versus Tampa Bay's 98-64 and +86.
    • Milwaukee's .3273 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching is materially above Tampa Bay's .2855 versus left-handed pitching.
    • Peralta's quality-contact profile is better: 3.84 expected ERA and .302 xwOBA allowed versus Gasser's 4.27 and .317.
    Picks with pink (MLB) money line hunter
    • Confirmed lineup fit: Brewers post .327 xwOBA versus right-handers; Tampa Bay posts .286 versus left-handers.
    • Milwaukee leads season offense 5.14 to 4.54 runs per game and bullpen ERA 3.37 to Tampa Bay's 3.99.
    • Tampa Bay has the better starter xERA, 3.84 for Peralta versus 4.27 for Gasser, and home field.
  2. Robert Gasser over 3.5 strikeouts3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +124 on FanDuel

    3 modelsMLB HunterV2, +EV Volume Handicapper +1
    Why 3 models like it
    MLB HunterV2
    • 49% model probability versus 42.6% devigged market fair probability from Pinnacle +124/-151.
    • Gasser reached at least five innings in three of his last four starts; both lineups are confirmed.
    • Tampa Bay's contact profile and Nic Lentz's strongly negative pitcher-K fit reduce strikeout upside.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Gasser cleared 3.5 Ks in 4 of his last 5 regular-season starts, totaling 25 Ks in 27 innings.
    • Conservative 4.3-IP, 19.5% strikeout scenario is approximately 50.5%, still +7.9 points over fair.
    • A short postseason leash or early hard-contact hook can strand the prop below four Ks; the outs market is only 12.5.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Research grade 74/100 (B): confirmed starter, no IL designation, and a stable starting workload.
    • Exact line cleared in 7 of Gasser's last 10 starts (70%), with 17 of 23 in 2026 (74%); no pushes.
    • L5 exact-line rate is only 2/5 (40%), and his two latest playoff starts both finished with 3 Ks.
  3. Junior Caminero 2+ total bases2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsWarning Track, Small Ball
    Why 2 models like it
    Warning Track
    • Caminero carries a .248 ISO, 33.9% hard-hit rate, 7.5% barrel rate, and 35.9% fly-ball rate.
    • His 48.6% pull rate and 86.2 mph average exit velocity fit a power-oriented total-bases profile.
    • Gasser's 3.6% barrel rate allowed and 20.8% hard-hit rate allowed limit the pitcher-side power boost.
    Small Ball
    • Own estimate: 46.5%; Caminero owns a .4063 xwOBA, .2712 average and .4576 SLG versus lefties across 208 PA.
    • Confirmed fourth-slot placement supports roughly 4.1-4.3 PA; Gasser is a confirmed lefty with 4.5 playoff innings per start and 5.2 regular-season innings.
    • Two total bases needs an extra-base hit or multiple hits; one ordinary single loses.
  4. Robert Gasser over 12.5 outs2 models agree
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPesto Changeup, PICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home run
    Why 2 models like it
    Pesto Changeup
    • start starter regime; 86.75 pitches/start, 16.62 P/IP, 5.2 IP/start; recent five outs 15, 12, 18, 21, 15.
    • MIL bullpen source: 3-day state is 6.0 IP, 93 pitches, five appearances, five arms, zero back-to-backs; no documented hook pressure.
    • Nic Lentz fit_z is -4.86 with -0.01 called-strike delta; the negative zone can cost Gasser a turn.
    PICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home run
    • 18/22 season starts cleared 12.5 outs; the exact-line rate is 81.8%.
    • The last 5 starts cleared 4/5 and the last 10 cleared 8/10.
    • His two current postseason starts were only 15 and 12 outs, with 56 and 72 pitches.
  5. Freddy Peralta under 4.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +102%Won

    Taken at +102 on DraftKings

    2 modelsShawn's K-Floor Staircase, Picks with pink pro reader
    Why 2 models like it
    Shawn's K-Floor Staircase
    • Confirmed Brewers lineup is 22.5% K versus right-handers, only borderline for an 8.3 K/9 starter.
    • Peralta's regular-season L5 was 23 Ks in 28.0 IP (7.39 K/9); current last five starts produced 22 Ks.
    • Peralta still owns 156 Ks in 169 regular-season innings and can clear five with efficient early counts.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Confirmed starter with established workload: 5.33 IP/84 pitches in his latest playoff start.
    • Regular-season exact-line L10: under 4.5 Ks in 7 of 10 starts; no pushes.
    • Small playoff sample: Peralta's three postseason starts went under 4.5, but one produced six Ks.
  6. Milwaukee Brewers +1.5Favorite2 models agree
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSelective Pressure, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Selective Pressure
    • 0-0 after two completed innings; Milwaukee has two hits, Tampa Bay one.
    • Milwaukee is 17-3 over its last 20 and 5-0 over its last five; Tampa Bay is 12-8 and 3-2.
    • This is a thin edge at 65¢; one late run or bullpen mistake can decide the +1.5 margin.
    Deep Book
    • Confirmed lineups and starters: Robert Gasser and Freddy Peralta; board as_of_pt 2026-10-26T14:11:51-07:00.
    • LEAN only: 8.37x is below the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold.
Show all 46 picks
  1. Milwaukee Brewers run line −1.5
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmUp 79% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Peralta's TTO xwOBA rises .268 → .290 → .306 → .323, with third/fourth-trip contact quality worsening.
    • Brewers versus right-handers clear the platoon gate: .327 xwOBA, .407 SLG, .224 K rate; lineup is confirmed.
    • Most likely loss: Peralta avoids the third trip and Tampa wins a close game before Milwaukee's run-line margin matters.
  2. Total runs under 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle same-rung 7.5: Over +113 / Under -130; devigged Under fair is 54.6%.
    • Confirmed Peralta/Gasser starters and both nine-man lineups; Rays vs L xwOBA .2855 creates a -0.50-run platoon ledger, capped at -0.40 Partial.
    • Baseline mean approximately 7.00; minus 0.40 ledger with SD 4.3 gives model Under 7.5 probability 58.3%.
    • Gasser's 2026 sabermetric profile is incomplete, so coverage is Partial rather than Full.
  3. Taylor Walls HRR YES 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Brewers bullpen has logged 10.0 IP and 148 pitches over three days, improving late hit/run/RBI paths for Tampa.
    • Ninth-place spot caps opportunity at roughly 3.6 PA; a 0-for-3 or 0-for-4 is the likeliest loss.
  4. Freddy Peralta over 14.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −145 on BetMGM

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected 15.8 outs, 1.3 above the 14.5 line; modeled clear probability 64%.
    • Last five starts produced 16, 18, 14, 16, and 17 outs on 87.8 pitches per start; four cleared.
    • Confirmed starter with 32 regular-season starts under Kevin Cash, seven days’ rest, no IL status, and no reported pitch limit.
    • Peralta’s third-TTO xwOBA is .306 versus .268 in the first trip, while third-TTO strikeout rate falls to 15.5% from 27.4%; a late hook is plausible.
  5. Over 7 total
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Milwaukee and Tampa Bay combined for 1,568 season runs; run differentials are +214 and +86.
    • Confirmed Robert Gasser and Freddy Peralta start; their xERAs are 4.27 and 3.84, while both bullpens logged 148-plus pitches in three days.
    • Peralta and Gasser can outperform their xERA inputs, producing a low-scoring pitchers' duel.
  6. First-inning run over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed top-four platoon xwOBA: Milwaukee .344 vs RHP; Tampa Bay .332 vs LHP.
    • Full-game total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it covers different innings, lineup slots, starter fatigue and bullpen work.
    • The 53.0% estimate assumes the two team scoreless rates are independent; shared pitcher and park effects could reduce it.
  7. Milwaukee Brewers F5 winner
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: Brewers 42%, Rays 39%, draw 19%; Brewers fair probability is 4.4 points above venue devigged 37.6%.
    • Confirmed top-three matchup: Milwaukee vs RHP xwOBA .3273 versus Tampa Bay vs LHP xwOBA .2855.
    • Gasser current-playoff L5 WHIP .8889 and ERA 1.00 compare favorably with Peralta's 1.13 and 1.13.
    • Gasser's 4.5 L5 innings per start is below the 4.7 marker, downgrading this from Tier 1.
  8. Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays F5 total runs under 4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

    MLB F5 Total Runs Over/Under Titanium Model #55Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Combined starter ERA 4.87 ≤ 5.80 and WHIP 2.08 ≤ 2.15 on the F5 board.
    • Tropicana dome: 70°F and 0 mph wind satisfy the under weather gate.
    • The ERA/WHIP inputs are starter aggregates rather than a large F5-only sample.
  9. Freddy Peralta under 4.0 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi

    Mr. StrikeoutsUp 64% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last four starts produced 4, 3, 6, and 3 strikeouts; three stayed below four.
    • 2026 K/9 is 8.31, while the last three starts are down to 7.88 K/9.
    • Kalshi NO costs 30¢ on the 4+ contract, inside the brief's under-loophole price band.
    • The market still implies roughly 70% for 4+ Ks; this fade can simply be wrong.
  10. Milwaukee Brewers over 3.5 total runs
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Brewers order faces right-handed Freddy Peralta; six of nine hitters bat left or switch, and Milwaukee owns a .3273 xwOBA versus RHP.
    • Peralta's verified Tampa profile allows .302 xwOBA, with 3.84 xERA and 1.13 L5 WHIP.
    • Tampa's bullpen has logged 7.33 innings and 152 pitches over three days, supporting a late Brewers scoring path.
    • No sharp exact-rung reference and no internal-coherence fire; this is a capped self-referenced projection.
  11. Robert Gasser over 12.5 pitching outs
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Pitchin outsUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10 of his last 12 starts cleared 12.5 outs; mean was 15.4 outs.
    • The last five averaged 16.2 outs, with 4 of 5 clears and 16.37 pitches per inning.
    • Regular-season workload was 86.75 pitches and 15.6 outs per start; he has no IL, rehab, or active cap flag.
    • His two current postseason starts were 15 and 12 outs, so the playoff sample is only 1 of 2 over.
  12. Milwaukee Brewers −1.5
    +223%Won

    Taken at 31¢ on Polymarket US

    Run and a HalfUp 223% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model assigns Milwaukee a 35% chance to win by 2+ runs versus Polymarket US yes_price of 30.5c.
    • Recent 60-day MLB margins: 29.0% landed at one run, 19.3% at two; the model preserves that lumpy tail rather than scaling the moneyline.
    • Confirmed Milwaukee lineup owns a .3273 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; Tampa Bay is at .2855 versus left-handed pitching.
    • Freddy Peralta's 3.84 xERA is better than Robert Gasser's 4.27, which can shift the margin tail toward Tampa Bay.
  13. Freddy Peralta under 5.5 strikeouts
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 54% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4.4 modeled mean Ks versus the 5.5 threshold: a 1.1-K gap clears the brief's 0.75-K bar.
    • Confirmed Milwaukee lineup averages 22.1% strikeouts versus right-handers; Peralta's last five starts produced 22 Ks in 111 batters faced (19.8%).
    • Recent workload averages 22.2 batters faced; Nic Lentz fit is mildly pitcher-negative (-0.01), while the dome removes rain risk.
    • The 70% estimate depends on roughly 22 batters faced; a deep, efficient outing creates the main losing path.
  14. Total runs under 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX No Vig MLBDown 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ledger: Tampa Bay .2855 xwOBA versus lefty Gasser triggers -0.50 runs, capped at -0.40; Milwaukee .3273 versus righty Peralta receives 0.00; bullpen B2B is 0/0.
    • Most likely loss: 8 or more runs; exactly 7 is a push, not a win.
  15. Tampa Bay Rays +1.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −210 on FanDuel

    high-confidence main marketsDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 71% own cover estimate versus roughly 67.7% implied at FanDuel -210; fair price about -246.
    • Tropicana Field run factor is 96, with dome conditions and no wind limiting margin volatility.
    • Confirmed Rays lineup pairs home field with Freddy Peralta's .302 xwOBA allowed and 3.84 expected ERA.
    • Milwaukee is 17-3 over its last 20 and owns a strong .3273 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
  16. Game first-five total under 4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 playoff sample: 37 games averaged 7.08 runs, median 7, with a right-skewed 17/37 reaching 8+ runs.
    • Pinnacle independently posts a first-five total of 4.0, under -112, supporting a lower starter-led first-five slice.
    • Under 4.5 costs 58¢; the fitted first-five probability is about 70%, a meaningful gap against this thinner rung.
    • Five early runs can beat the ticket even if the full-game total stays under 7.5; first-five scoring is volatile.
  17. Robert Gasser over 1.5 earned runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +107 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER ModelDown 34% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model λ 1.88 ER: 4.8 IP, xERA 4.27, Rays .2855 xwOBA vs L, Tropicana run factor 0.96.
    • Poisson distribution: P0 15.3%, P1 28.7%, P2 27.0%, P3 16.9%, P4+ 12.2%.
    • Model over probability 56.1%; fair line -128 versus DraftKings +107.
    • Tampa Bay's .2855 xwOBA versus left-handers is a favorable matchup for Gasser.
  18. Milwaukee Brewers/Tampa Bay Rays game total Under 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Under CurrentDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX team totals are TB Under 3.5 (-112) and MIL Under 3.5 (-118), implying seven or fewer.
    • ProphetX first-five total is Under 4 (-115), reinforcing a suppressed early scoring baseline.
    • Confirmed Gasser/Peralta show xERA 4.27/3.84; both bullpens had zero appearances yesterday and no back-to-backs.
    • Milwaukee's confirmed order carries a .3273 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching, the clearest over route.
  19. Milwaukee Brewers/Tampa Bay Rays game total Under 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Under CurrentDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Gasser xERA 4.27 and Peralta xERA 3.84, with CSW rates 26.6% and 24.4%, support a roughly low-to-mid-six run projection.
    • Tampa Bay's confirmed lineup owns only .2855 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching; Tropicana's 96 park run factor further trims scoring.
    • Both bullpens had zero appearances yesterday and no back-to-back relievers; 3-day workloads are manageable at 93 Milwaukee and 95 Tampa Bay pitches.
    • Milwaukee's confirmed order has a .3273 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching, a legitimate route to an early over.
  20. Freddy Peralta over 4.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on BetMGM

    Señor StrikeoutsUp 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Peralta has an 8.31 season K/9 and averaged 88 pitches across his last five starts.
    • His last three starts produced 3, 6, and 3 strikeouts on 84, 99, and 66 pitches, with seven days' rest.
    • The last three starts average only 4.0 strikeouts, below his season baseline.
  21. Game total over 5.5 runsFavorite
    +52%Won

    Taken at 66¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Two measures align: over 5.5 is thin at the quote and deeper in total; book_levels are neutral at 3 versus 3.
    • Venue self-reference only; there is no independent reference specifically validating ProphetX's 5.5-run rung.
  22. Tampa Bay Rays to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Two measures align: Rays are thin at the quote and deeper in total; book_levels are neutral at 3 versus 3.
    • Venue self-reference only; the depth asymmetry could be stale or canceled and does not establish predictive validity.
  23. Ryan Vilade 1+ home runLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 9¢ on Polymarket US

    Small BallDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own estimate: 17%; Vilade has 8 HR in 179 PA versus lefties, with .478 SLG and .3390 xwOBA in that split.
    • Confirmed batting second supports roughly 4.3-4.6 PA; Robert Gasser is a confirmed lefty with 5.2 regular-season innings and 86.75 pitches per start.
    • Home runs are binary and high variance; the 17% estimate is still an 83% miss probability.
  24. Junior Caminero over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2.6 average H+R+RBIs over his last five games versus the 1.5 line, a 73% cushion.
    • .4063 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching over 208 2026 plate appearances supports the matchup.
    • Caminero is confirmed active, batting fourth, with Robert Gasser confirmed as the opposing left-handed starter.
    • His full-season over-1.5 rate is 57.2% across 173 games, only marginally above the estimated break-even at -137.
  25. Freddy Peralta 16+ recorded outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Peralta's last three postseason starts produced 14, 16, and 16 outs on 66, 82.5, and 83 pitches.
    • His current playoff profile is 5.33 innings and 83 pitches per start; 16 outs requires only 5⅓ innings.
    • He has seven days since his last start, no IL status, and Tampa's pen logged 7.33 innings over three days.
    • There is no announced pitch-count cap, but Tampa's relatively fresh bullpen can support an early hook.
  26. Game extra inningsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 11¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • MIL vs RHP carries .3273 xwOBA; TB vs LHP .2855, with Gasser xERA 4.27 and Peralta xERA 3.84.
    • Modeled means are roughly 3.2 Brewers runs and 2.6 Rays runs; the low, reasonably tight shape matters more than the favorite.
    • Tropicana's 96 run factor, dome/no wind, confirmed lineups, and no reliever back-to-back flags support a compressed distribution.
    • Brewers' .3273 xwOBA and 108 right-handed park split create some margin risk against the tie shape.
  27. Game total under 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starters are Freddy Peralta and Robert Gasser; the game is in a dome with no weather uncertainty.
    • Most likely loss: Peralta, Gasser, or the bullpens allow eight or more runs, with one crooked inning deciding the ticket.
  28. Tampa Bay Rays game total under 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rays own a .2855 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching; Robert Gasser is confirmed and Freddy Peralta brings a 2.70 ERA with 3.85 xFIP.
    • Milwaukee's .3273 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching is the matchup's clearest over path.
  29. Junior Caminero 1+ home runLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Caminero's 7.5% barrel rate, 35.9% fly-ball rate, 48.6% pull rate, and .248 ISO stack for a home-run path.
    • The 22¢ Polymarket US price is below this model's roughly 24% HR estimate; there is no external HR prop quote, so this is a pure projection edge.
    • the 22¢ HR price remains below Caminero's 42¢ 2+ total-bases price.
    • Gasser's 3.6% barrel rate allowed and 20.8% hard-hit rate allowed are not a favorable contact-quality matchup.
  30. Over 7.5 total runs
    +112%Won

    Taken at +112 on FanDuel

    Rotation WatchUp 107% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Milwaukee's .3273 xwOBA versus RHP is the strongest offensive input in the matchup; Tampa Bay is weaker versus LHP at .2855 xwOBA.
    • Gasser's last five starts produced a 9.5% walk rate and 20.5% hard-hit rate allowed, giving Tampa paths to extend innings despite its weaker split.
    • Both bullpens were active in the last three days: MIL 6.0 innings/93 pitches and TB 4.33/95, with five appearances each.
    • Peralta's last-five hard-hit rate was only 16.5%, and his season xwOBA allowed is .302; a clean start can keep this below eight.
  31. Milwaukee Brewers moneyline +102
    +102%Won

    Taken at +102 on FanDuel

    Rotation WatchUp 107% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • MIL owns a .3273 xwOBA and .407 SLG versus right-handed pitching; TB is at .2855 xwOBA versus lefties.
    • Last five starts: Gasser posted 23.8% K and 9.5% BB with 20.5% hard-hit allowed; Peralta was 21.1% K, 8.3% BB and 16.5% hard-hit.
    • Peralta has the better season contact profile (.302 xwOBA allowed versus Gasser's .317), but Milwaukee's handedness-adjusted offense is the clearest matchup edge.
    • Tampa Bay has the home field and the stronger season-long starter contact profile; that can outweigh Milwaukee's offensive split edge.
  32. Milwaukee Brewers under 3.5 team runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US full-game anchors are near-even on the winner and under 6.5 runs at 54.5¢.
    • The fitted anchor picture is a low-scoring game centered near 6.5 total runs, with Milwaukee's share near 3.0.
    • Pinnacle's live 6.5 total is -112 to the over, an independent reference leaning against this venue-only under read.
  33. Tampa Bay Rays win the 9th inningLong shot
    +1329%Won

    Taken at 7¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Internal coherence: full-game anchors imply a near-even Rays win probability (~52.5%) and a 7.5-run environment.
    • Team totals are balanced: Brewers over 3.5 at 48c and Rays over 3.5 at 49c.
    • The 9th-inning total prices a run at only about 30%, yet Rays winning the inning is just 7c.
    • The 9th-inning draw is priced at 77c, making the target highly sensitive to low-scoring and tie interpretation.
  34. Any run in the 1st inning
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    First PitchDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle first-inning 0.5 total is +107/-125; devigged YRFI probability is 46.5%.
    • confirmed top-three xwOBA averages .344 for Milwaukee and .307 for Tampa Bay versus starter hand.
    • First-inning walk rates are 9.5% Gasser and 10.0% Peralta; Peralta has allowed 4 HR in 150 first-inning PA.
    • Gasser and Peralta first-inning K rates are 28.4% and 25.3%, above regular-season rates of 16.2% and 21.4%.
  35. Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays F5 total under 5.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 70¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • full-game 7.5 total is priced 56% to the under, consistent with a restrained first-five environment.
    • Robert Gasser and Freddy Peralta are confirmed, with current playoff ERAs of 1.00 and 1.08 and WHIPs of 0.89 and 1.14.
    • The opposing lineup clash read is modest: Rays .2855 xwOBA vs LHP and Brewers .3273 vs RHP; only Milwaukee supplies a clear top-order hitting advantage.
    • Both playoff samples are short, and each starter's xERA is materially higher than his ERA: Gasser 4.27, Peralta 3.84.
  36. Milwaukee Brewers first-five spread +1.5Favorite
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • full-game Brewers +1.5 is 67.5c; F5 +1.5 is cheaper at 67c.
    • Both starters are confirmed and current: Peralta xERA 3.84, Gasser xERA 4.27; this is not a large matchup gap.
    • Confirmed top-five lineup xwOBA versus the opposing hand favors Milwaukee .348 to Tampa Bay .321.
    • No external sharp reference exists for the ±1.5 F5 rung; this is a self-reference read, not verified market value.
  37. Total runs under 7 (push if exactly 7)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 7 refunds at exactly seven runs; adjacent under 7.5 wins on seven.
    • ProphetX prices under 7 at 49.02¢ versus under 7.5 at 55.75¢: a 6.73-point gap, below the observed push mass.
    • Historical 2021-25 MLB totals are broad and not a matchup-specific scoring projection.
  38. Jake Bauers 1+ hit
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Small BallDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own estimate: 59%; Bauers has a .261 average and .3723 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching across 441 PA, with a confirmed second-slot lineup position.
    • The 54¢ price is only 1.55 points below the sharp fair probability; fees can erase the gross edge.
  39. Milwaukee Brewers–Tampa Bay Rays total runs under 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Robert Gasser's recent line is 1.67 ERA over his last five, while Freddy Peralta's is 0.96.
    • Tampa's confirmed lineup has just a .2855 xwOBA and .3542 SLG versus left-handed pitching.
    • Dome conditions remove wind variance; the under 7 benefits from a push at exactly seven runs.
    • Most likely loss: Milwaukee's .3273 xwOBA versus right-handers turns Peralta's recent form into early scoring.
  40. Milwaukee Brewers first-five to win
    +110%Won

    Taken at +110 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Brewers post a .327 xwOBA versus right-handers; Tampa Bay is at .286 versus left-handers.
    • Milwaukee is 17-3 over its last 20; Tampa Bay is 12-8, with Milwaukee averaging a larger recent scoring margin.
    • Gasser's last-five ERA is 1.67 over 27 innings; Peralta's is 0.96 over 28, making this a close starter matchup rather than a Rays mismatch.
    • Peralta's season xwOBA allowed is .302 versus Gasser's .317, a real Rays starter-quality advantage.

Questions

Who won Brewers vs. Rays?

The Brewers won 10-1 on Monday, Oct 26, 2026.

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