Get app
FinalTropicana Field
Brewers103-59
4–1Final
Rays98-64
Score by period
Team123456789T
MIL0100120004
TB0000000011

Top model pick, graded

Won

Milwaukee Brewers to win −139

Why Brewing MLB Ml likes it: Misiorowski's regular-season 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 12.98 K/9 and 2.17 FIP lead Rasmussen's 2.67, 0.91, 9.11 and 2.81.

Brewing MLB MlUp 27% return this season · 70 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 46-21 on this game · +28% return

  1. Milwaukee Brewers to win13 models agreeHigh conviction
    +72%Won

    Taken at −139 on DraftKings

    13 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, Fade the Arm +11
    Why 13 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Misiorowski's regular-season 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 12.98 K/9 and 2.17 FIP lead Rasmussen's 2.67, 0.91, 9.11 and 2.81.
    • Milwaukee has the platoon-quality edge versus right-handed pitching (.3284 xwOBA to Tampa Bay's .3110), confirmed lineups, and a 52-pitch bullpen workload advantage over three days.
    • Tampa Bay has home field, and one-game postseason variance can overwhelm a substantial starting-pitching edge.
    Fade the Arm
    • Rasmussen's xFIP is 3.21 and xERA 3.06 against a 2.67 regular-season ERA; TTO xwOBA rises from .2535 to .2786 to .2966.
    • Brewers vs right-handers: .3284 xwOBA, .410 SLG, and a 22.3% strikeout rate clear the platoon gate.
    • Most likely loss: Rasmussen works efficiently through six or more innings and suppresses Milwaukee's right-handed matchup.
    Parity Desk
    • Polymarket US Brewers yes costs 57c; no is 43.5c: 100.5c sum, OPEN, tradable, both quoted.
    • Confirmed starters and lineups; Brewers versus RHP xwOBA is .3284 with 4,642 team PA.
    • Partial coverage: current playoff profiles are not saber-complete; Rasmussen has 4 playoff GS and Misiorowski 3.
    bully ball strategy
    • Confirmed starters: Jacob Misiorowski leads Drew Rasmussen in xwOBA allowed (.226 vs .271), xERA (2.13 vs 3.06), and K/9 (12.98 vs 9.11).
    • Milwaukee is better in overall run prevention (3.51 team ERA vs Tampa Bay 3.70) and its relievers have lower ERA/FIP (2.91/2.04 vs 3.48/2.27).
    • Tampa Bay has home field and a stronger recent starting-pitcher ERA profile could narrow the model gap.
  2. Milwaukee Brewers first-five to win4 models agree
    +64%Won

    Taken at −156 on FanDuel

    4 modelsPuddinsPOP F5 MLB, high-confidence main markets +2
    Why 4 models like it
    PuddinsPOP F5 MLB
    • Misiorowski owns a 2.13 xERA and .226 xwOBA allowed versus Rasmussen at 3.06 and .271.
    • Milwaukee’s confirmed first five average roughly .343 xwOBA versus Tampa Bay’s .326.
    • Misiorowski’s last three playoff starts lasted 4.0, 4.33, and 5.0 innings on 88, 94, and 78 pitches.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Misiorowski: 1.80 ERA, 2.13 xERA, .226 xwOBA allowed, 12.98 K/9.
    • Rasmussen: 2.67 ERA, 3.06 xERA, .271 xwOBA allowed, 9.10 K/9.
    • Rasmussen has a better 2026 playoff ERA: 2.19 across four starts versus Misiorowski's 2.70 across three.
    MLB Default Picks
    • F5 sharp anchor: 57.7% devigged from FanDuel/DraftKings/BetMGM median; fair price about -136.
    • Model probability 64.7%, fair price -183; DraftKings break-even 60.6%, edge +4.1 points.
    • Rasmussen is confirmed on three days' rest, which could narrow Milwaukee's starter-quality advantage despite his stronger L5 ERA/WHIP.
    Number Earned
    • Estimated Brewers F5 win probability 63%; fair line approximately -170 versus DK -154.
    • Jacob Misiorowski: 1.80 regular-season ERA, .226 xwOBA allowed, 12.98 K/9.
    • Tampa Bay has home field and Rasmussen posted a 1.42 ERA over his last five regular-season starts.
  3. Jacob Misiorowski under 5.5 strikeouts3 models agree
    +110%Won

    Taken at +110 on DraftKings

    3 modelsK-Zone Fade, Señor Strikeouts +1
    Why 3 models like it
    K-Zone Fade
    • Misiorowski's current three-start K/9 is 9.45 versus 12.98 for his 2026 season.
    • His current postseason average is 86.67 pitches and 4.44 innings per start, creating a short-outing path.
    • The 12.98 season K/9 baseline is elite; a return to that form can clear 5.5 quickly.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Misiorowski has recorded 3, 5, and 6 strikeouts in his last three playoff starts; under this line twice.
    • His recent playoff workload averaged 86.7 pitches, while the matchup projects fewer swing-and-miss opportunities.
    • He reached 6 strikeouts in his most recent start, so one extra punchout loses the ticket.
    EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner
    • 53% own estimate versus 48.5% break-even at FanDuel +106.
    • Tampa Bay's 2026 strikeout rate versus right-handers is 18.1%, a contact-heavy matchup.
    • Misiorowski's 12.98 K/9 season baseline is elite and can beat this line in a normal-length start.
  4. Milwaukee Brewers −1.52 models agree
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsFade the Arm, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Fade the Arm
    • Rasmussen’s 2026 playoff ERA is 2.19 versus 3.06 xERA and 3.21 xFIP, exposing a results-quality gap.
    • Brewers versus right-handed pitching: .3284 xwOBA, .410 SLG, and 22.3% strikeout rate clear the platoon gate.
    • Most likely loss: Rasmussen’s 2.19 postseason ERA holds and Milwaukee wins by zero or one run, failing the -1.5 margin.
    Long Way Home
    • Misiorowski owns the starter edge: .226 xwOBA allowed and 2.13 xERA versus Rasmussen's .271 and 3.06.
    • Milwaukee's .633 pythagorean win rate and +214 run differential exceed Tampa Bay's .557 and +86.
    • Most likely loss: Rasmussen keeps Tampa Bay within one run even if Milwaukee wins outright.
  5. Milwaukee Brewers under 6.5 runs2 models agree
    +81%Won

    Taken at −124 on FanDuel

    2 modelscash-first mlb under hunter, Daryl’s Strawberry’s
    Why 2 models like it
    cash-first mlb under hunter
    • Independent fair total 5.6 runs; modeled under-6.5 cash probability 62%.
    • Misiorowski and Rasmussen combine elite expected contact prevention: xwOBA allowed .226 and .271.
    • Both bullpens worked heavily over three days: 11.0 and 12.33 innings, with 167 and 219 pitches.
    Daryl’s Strawberry’s
    • -850 at FanDuel clears the -300 to -1000 extreme-chalk price gate.
    • Brewers stayed under 6.5 runs in 8 of their last 10 games.
    • Milwaukee scored 7 or more twice in the last 10, including 10 runs on October 26.
  6. Under 6.5 total runs2 models agree
    +81%Won

    Taken at −124 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPen Check, House Rules
    Why 2 models like it
    Pen Check
    • Misiorowski: 1.80 ERA, .226 xwOBA allowed, 12.98 K/9; Rasmussen: 2.67 ERA, .271 xwOBA allowed.
    • Recent command is strong: Misiorowski's L5 is 2.28 ERA/1.10 WHIP/11.41 K9; Rasmussen's is 0.96/.853/8.81.
    • Tampa Bay has used 219 bullpen pitches over three days versus Milwaukee's 167; an early exit could expose tired relief.
    House Rules
    • ProphetX: Under 6 is 48.08c versus Under 6.5 at 53.27c; the 5.19c premium is 2.06c below the observed six-run mass.
Show all 45 picks
  1. Game total under 6.52 models agree
    +81%Won

    Taken at −124 on FanDuel

    2 modelsMLB Quant Edge, Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB Quant Edge
    • Projected scoring center is about 6.0 runs versus a 6.5 market total.
    • Misiorowski carries 2.13 xERA, 2.35 SIERA, 2.29 xFIP and 12.98 K/9.
    • Tampa Bay's bullpen has logged 12.33 innings and 219 pitches over three days, creating late-inning over risk.
    Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 5.8 runs; fair total line 6.0; win probability 57.8%; push probability 0.0%; locked 6:20 PM CDT.
    • Jacob Misiorowski: 2026 regular-season xwOBA allowed .226, FIP 2.17, and 12.98 K/9.
    • Both bullpens logged heavy three-day workloads: 219 Tampa Bay pitches and 167 Milwaukee pitches.
  2. Game total under 6.5 runs2 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • confirmed Jacob Misiorowski (2.29 xFIP) and Drew Rasmussen (3.21 xFIP) provide a strong run-prevention baseline.
    • Both starters' current profile shows sub-2.3 ERA across their last five starts, supporting a lower scoring distribution than 6.5.
    • Milwaukee's .3284 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching is the clearest path to an early scoring burst.
    Long Way Home
    • confirmed starters allow .226 (Misiorowski) and .271 (Rasmussen) xwOBA; both are live listed starters.
    • Misiorowski: 2.70 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 9.45 K/9; Rasmussen: 2.19 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 9.85 K/9.
    • Most likely loss: a taxed bullpen turns a low-scoring start into a late crooked inning.
  3. Jacob Misiorowski 5+ strikeoutsHigh conviction
    +233%Won

    Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi

    Mr. StrikeoutsUp 64% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Misiorowski's last three playoff starts averaged 4.44 IP and 86.7 pitches; the latest lasted 78 pitches.
    • Kalshi NO costs 30c, inside the brief's 25, 35c under-loophole range.
    • He recorded 3, 5, and 6 strikeouts in his last three starts; ordinary variance can beat the NO.
  4. Jake Bauers hits over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rasmussen is confirmed RHP with .2801 CSW, 9.11 K/9, 3.06 xERA and .271 xwOBA allowed; Tampa's bullpen has 219 pitches over three days.
    • Tropicana's 96 run factor suppresses offense; a quick, low-scoring game can remove the fourth PA.
  5. Taylor Walls HRR YES 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • DK same-event devig: hit 38.8%, run 23.1%, RBI 15.3%; 15% union haircut gives fair HRR YES 51.2%.
    • Batting ninth caps opportunity; an early Brewers lead or quick game can remove the fourth plate appearance.
  6. Milwaukee Brewers win the 9th inningLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • F5 winner prices Milwaukee 44¢, Tampa Bay 33¢, draw 26¢; full-game winner is Milwaukee 57¢, while the inning-9 side split is the board's clear late-frame outlier.
    • Tampa Bay has 12.33 IP/219 pitches/11 appearances over three days versus Milwaukee's 11.0/167/9; both starters project below seven innings.
    • inning 9 is the away-first frame; the bottom half can be skipped when Tampa Bay leads, suppressing the Rays' win-inning outcome relative to earlier frames.
    • The 9th-inning draw remains modal at 71¢; a scoreless or tied frame loses this contract.
  7. Jacob Misiorowski under 15.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −140 on BetMGM

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected 13.8 outs; modeled distribution: ≤9 10%, 10, 12 20%, 13, 15 42%, 16, 18 20%, 19+ 8%.
    • Under 15.5 clears at 72%; last five starts were 9, 12, 13, 15, and 16 outs.
    • Current postseason starts: 12, 13, and 15 outs; no IL status, ramp, rest, or pitch-limit gate triggered.
    • One out separates 15 from 16; efficient contact or an extended sixth inning loses the ticket.
  8. Under 6.5 total
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 55.5% under: confirmed Misiorowski xERA 2.13/CSW 33.9%; Rasmussen xERA 3.06/CSW 28.0%.
    • Run differential is Milwaukee +214 versus Tampa Bay +86; confirmed lineups at Tropicana Field, dome and 70°F.
    • Most likely loss: one early homer or a bullpen meltdown pushes the game to seven or more runs.
  9. Jake Bauers at least 2 total bases
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bauers is confirmed batting second, giving him one of the game's strongest expected plate-appearance opportunities.
    • The dome removes wind noise while Tropicana's 111 HR factor supports the air-ball component; total bases also benefits from extra-base contact beyond homers.
    • Bauers has 1 HR in 54 current-season playoff plate appearances; the recent sample is too small to separate form from noise.
  10. Jackson Chourio at least 1 home runLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tropicana Field carries a 111 HR factor; the dome removes wind uncertainty rather than adding an opposing wind signal.
    • Confirmed leadoff lineup spot supplies maximum expected plate appearances.
    • Chourio has only 2 HR in 58 current-season playoff plate appearances; single-game HR outcomes remain high variance.
  11. Drew Rasmussen over 5.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +158 on DraftKings

    K’sDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 23.6 TBF and 6.23 IP over his last 10 starts; excluding the latest outing, 24.0 TBF and 6.52 IP.
    • Last five starts produced 38 Ks in 120 TBF; removing the 11-K outlier still leaves 27 Ks in 96 TBF.
    • Vic Carapazza's pitcher-fit signal adds 0.01 called-strike probability with a 4.82 fit z-score; the opposing split has 4,642 PA.
    • Last-10 strikeout standard deviation is 2.45; the five-to-six transition remains materially variance-sensitive.
  12. Milwaukee Brewers F3 winner
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Brewers 1, 6 average .336 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; Tampa Bay’s confirmed 1, 6 average is .321.
    • Misiorowski’s current first/second-time-through K rates are 44.5%/44.6%, with .238/.180 xwOBA allowed; Rasmussen is 29.3%/22.1% with .254/.279.
    • The full-game 6.5 total is NOT a valid F3 reference: it answers a different innings-and-bullpen distribution; this estimate uses the confirmed order, starter and TTO data.
    • Three-inning winner markets are sequencing-sensitive: one walk, homer or defensive mistake can flip the result.
  13. Tampa Bay Rays F5 winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rasmussen's current-playoff L5 WHIP is 0.97 over 24.67 innings (6.17/start), versus Misiorowski's 1.35 over 13.33 innings (4.44/start).
    • Confirmed top-three xWoba slightly favors Tampa Bay, .3504 (Díaz/Aranda/Caminero) to Milwaukee .3451 (Chourio/Bauers/Yelich).
    • Misiorowski has the better current-playoff xWoba-against at .226 versus Rasmussen's .271 and brings a 9.45 current-playoff K/9.
  14. Tampa Bay Rays under 2.5 runs scored
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Rays lineup is only .267 xwOBA versus right-handers over the last 15 days, down from .311 season-long.
    • Jacob Misiorowski is confirmed, with a 2.26 season xwOBA allowed and 12.98 K/9; Tampa's last-15 split is the weaker side of this matchup.
    • Tampa's top three include Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, and Junior Caminero; the middle order can beat the low total quickly.
  15. Jake Bauers over 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −125 on BetMGM

    PICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home runUp 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Exact hit rate clears every gate: L5 3/5 (60%), L10 7/10 (70%), 2026 96/156 (61.5%).
    • Phase split: regular season 88/144; playoffs 8/12; no pushes.
    • Confirmed second in Milwaukee's lineup; versus RHP he carries .2582 average, .4484 slugging and .3703 xwOBA.
    • Drew Rasmussen allows .271 xwOBA and has a 9.85 K/9 profile; his recent playoff K form is a direct contact-risk.
  16. Tampa Bay Rays under 5.5 runsFavorite
    +11%Won

    Taken at −950 on FanDuel

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • -950 at FanDuel clears the -300 to -1000 extreme-chalk price gate.
    • Rays stayed under 5.5 runs in 8 of their last 10 games.
    • Jacob Misiorowski's 0.23 xwOBA allowed is 30.8% below the 0.33 pitcher-season average.
    • Rays scored 7 runs twice in the last 10; one breakout outing loses the prop.
  17. Jacob Misiorowski 6+ strikeouts
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Tampa Bay lineup owns a 17.2% K rate versus right-handers (560 K in 3,264 PA).
    • Recent actual Ks: 3, 5, 6, 5, 4 over five starts; last-10 total 56, with recent playoff K/9 at 9.45.
    • Workload projects 5.4 IP from 86.7 average pitches across the last three starts; last four counts were 78, 94, 88, 68.
    • Misiorowski owns a 12.98 season K/9 and two put-away pitches: fastball 38.2% whiff, curveball 45.5%.
  18. Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays under 2.5 first-five total
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US anchors imply a Brewers win probability near 61.5% and a low-scoring whole-game center near 5.8, 6.0 runs.
    • Full-game total ladder: Over 5.5 costs 53¢ and Over 6.5 costs 43¢, establishing the fitted scoring tail.
    • Fitted first-five slice makes three or more runs slightly less likely than two or fewer; estimated under probability is 55%.
    • Milwaukee has a runner on second with one out in the live top of the second; one extra-base hit can flip the rung.
  19. Milwaukee Brewers under 6.5 total runs
    +81%Won

    Taken at −124 on FanDuel

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 81% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Drew Rasmussen and Jacob Misiorowski are confirmed; combined current xERA is 5.19 and both workload gates pass.
    • Tropicana Field is a dome with no wind; 2026 run factor is 96, limiting weather-driven scoring.
    • Against right-handed pitching, Tampa Bay posts .311 xwOBA and Milwaukee .328; both starters carry strong current strikeout rates.
    • Tampa Bay and Milwaukee relievers logged 219 and 167 pitches over three days, creating late-inning fatigue risk.
  20. Drew Rasmussen over 1.5 earned runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +136 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER ModelDown 34% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Expected IP / Expected ER: 6.0 IP / 1.85 ER; Poisson P(2+ ER) is 55.2%.
    • Rasmussen's 2026 xERA/xFIP/SIERA are 3.06/3.21/3.30 versus a 2.19 playoff ERA, supporting regression.
    • Milwaukee's confirmed top-six lineup averages .334 xwOBA; the team is at .3284 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
    • Milwaukee's .3284 versus-RHP xwOBA is a strong matchup and can create a multi-run inning.
  21. Drew Rasmussen under 12.5 outs recorded
    +68%Won

    Taken at −148 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rasmussen starts on three days' rest after throwing 89 pitches over 3 2/3 innings in Game 2.
    • His latest start produced 11 outs; the short-rest workload uncertainty directly favors the under.
    • Regular-season profile: 172 innings across 30 starts, but the 4.17-inning threshold is materially below his normal workload.
    • Tampa Bay has not announced a hard pitch limit; Cash said Rasmussen will give what he can.
  22. Game total under 6
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Under CurrentDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • two confirmed starters carry 2.13 xERA/.226 xwOBA (Misiorowski) and 3.06/.271 (Rasmussen); ProphetX still quotes Under 6 at +108.
    • Matchup clash data shows Milwaukee's lineup at +0.19 K-percentage delta against Rasmussen and Tampa Bay at +0.04 against Misiorowski.
    • Most likely loss: an early starter exit exposes taxed relief; Tampa Bay has 12.33 bullpen innings/219 pitches and Milwaukee 11.0/167 over the last three days.
  23. Game first-five total over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +114 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total 4.08 runs: team F5 offense/allowed averages blended with each confirmed starter's postseason ERA over five innings.
    • Poisson derivation gives 58.3% over 3.5; conservative research probability is 55%, still 8.3 points above the 46.7% price break-even.
    • Confirmed lineups and starters; dome removes wind uncertainty, while both starting pitchers have made at least four postseason starts.
    • Latest 10 comparable graded postseason F5 totals involving these teams are 5 overs, 5 unders, 0 pushes; the team-market exact-line gate is not applicable.
  24. William Contreras over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Contreras averaged 2.9 hits+runs+RBIs across his last 10 playoff games, 7 of 10 over 1.5.
    • His last five averaged 2.6, with four overs; current playoff profile shows .383 AVG and .5957 SLG.
    • Milwaukee versus right-handed pitching: .263 AVG, .410 SLG and .328 xwOBA; Contreras bats fourth.
    • Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen has a 2.19 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in his current-season profile.
  25. Game goes to extra inningsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 13¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • direct run-distribution model makes extras 17.5%; Kalshi raw yes_ask 0.13 is the fraction regime, or 13c.
    • Both confirmed right-handed starters suppress scoring: Misiorowski xERA 2.13 and xwOBA allowed .226; Rasmussen xERA 3.06 and xwOBA allowed .271.
    • RHP offense is relatively balanced: Brewers xwOBA .3284 versus Rays .3110, supporting a tight distribution rather than a one-sided margin.
    • The 4.5-point model gap has no sharp reference; this is a thin, venue-self-referenced projection.
  26. Drew Rasmussen under 15 recorded outsFavorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • A same-day Heavy report says Rasmussen likely cannot exceed 50 pitches, with only a possible stretch toward 75.
    • Recent postseason workload was 89/11, 95/21, and 91/18 pitches/outs; even 75 pitches usually stays below 15 outs.
    • The edge is workload/leash structure, not Rasmussen's ERA or strikeout quality; Kalshi is the only exact-rung reference.
    • The report is not a formal Rays-announced single-number cap; a 75-pitch push remains possible.
  27. Game total over 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Month board was positive for paulaoofc and negative for notbanksy; this desk does not apply the month veto.
    • Most likely loss: Drew Rasmussen and Jacob Misiorowski suppress scoring in the Tropicana Field dome, leaving the market's 65% Under side correct.
  28. NRFI under 0.5 first-inning runs
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

    Ricky NRFI QuantUp 63% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed top-six xwOBA versus right-handers averages MIL .337 and TB .320; official lineups posted.
    • Milwaukee's top six include Bauers (.3703) and Turang (.3635) xwOBA versus right-handers.
  29. Jacob Misiorowski over 5.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    ELITE MLB MASTER FADE & -EV TRAP DETECTION ENGINE v1.0Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Misiorowski posted a 12.98 K/9 and .226 expected wOBA allowed in the regular season.
    • A postseason hook, command issue, or early pitch-count spike can prevent six innings' worth of strikeout opportunities.
  30. First-inning runs over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • first-inning scoreless baselines (.679 TB, .6914 MIL) imply 53.1% RFI before starter adjustment.
    • Confirmed top fours: Chourio/Bauers/Yelich/Contreras and Díaz/Aranda/Caminero/Hicks; team xwOBA vs RHP is .3284 MIL and .3110 TB.
    • The full-game total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it describes later innings and bullpens, not these confirmed first-frame hitters.
    • The starter samples are 124 PA/33 games for Misiorowski and 131 PA/34 games for Rasmussen; four HR each create binary tail risk.
  31. Drew Rasmussen over 12.5 pitching outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Pitchin outsUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 cleared 12.5 outs in 30 of 34 starts (88.2%); season mean 17.35 outs.
    • Recent form: 9 of 10 over 12.5 and 4 of 5; last-five mean was 18.8 outs.
    • TTO xwOBA allowed was .254/.279/.235; the third-TTO figure is below first-TTO, not a cliff.
    • Rasmussen is working on three days' rest after 89 pitches over 3.2 innings in his prior start.
  32. Drew Rasmussen under 4.5 strikeouts
    +106%Won

    Taken at +106 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 106% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • structural mismatch: Tampa Bay's confirmed lineup carries an 18.1% 2026 strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching.
    • Rasmussen's last three starts produced 16.67 IP on 275 pitches: 5.56 IP/start and 16.5 P/IP, below the 17.5 decay trigger.
    • Current aggregate three-start velocity is approximately +0.2 mph versus season baseline; the physical-decay gate is not activated.
    • Rasmussen still owns a 9.85 K/9 playoff profile and recorded 17 strikeouts across his last three starts.
  33. Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays over 0.5 runs in the 3rd inning
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PM US anchors imply Milwaukee 57.5% to win and a 6.5-run full-game center.
    • Pinnacle independently lists Milwaukee -137 and a 6.0 total, supporting the same low-scoring environment.
    • 2023, 26 playoff finals: 170 games averaged 7.97 runs, median 8, with a right-skewed 75th percentile of 10.
    • Confirmed starters may suppress third-inning scoring more than the flat allocation assumes.
  34. Total runs over 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Fair ValueDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Partial coverage: posted lineups and 4,642/4,686 PA versus right-handed pitching; both starters confirmed, but playoff samples are only 3/4 GS and incomplete.
    • At 6.5, one run is decisive; six or fewer runs is the most likely loss path if the starters control contact.
  35. Drew Rasmussen over 4.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −128 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starter with 30 regular-season starts; current playoff rotation role is intact.
    • Regular-season L10 cleared 4.5 Ks in 7 of 10 starts (70%, no pushes); playoff phase is 3 of 4.
    • Model: negative-binomial/Poisson blend projects 68% over from 9.11 K/9, 22.25 recent playoff BF/start, and a 22.3% Brewers K rate vs RHP.
    • Current playoff sample is only four starts; the 7-of-10 regular-season form is a comparable-phase fallback, capping conviction low.
  36. Tampa Bay Rays F5 spread +1.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Misiorowski is the better regular-season starter: 2.13 xERA, 12.98 K/9 and 0.80 WHIP versus Rasmussen's 3.06, 9.11 and 0.91.
    • Confirmed top-five lineups versus right-handed pitching average .349 xwOBA for Milwaukee and .328 for Tampa Bay, a modest Brewers edge but not a two-run gap.
    • Misiorowski's first-inning profile is strong: 46.8% first-inning K rate and .148 first-inning BA allowed; Rasmussen is .313 and .208.
    • A two-run Milwaukee lead through five still wins the ticket; the better F5 protection is not immunity from an early crooked inning.
  37. Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays under 4.5 F5 totalFavorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jacob Misiorowski owns a 2.13 xERA, .802 WHIP, 46.8% first-inning K rate and .148 first-inning batting average.
    • Drew Rasmussen owns a 3.06 xERA, .913 WHIP and .208 first-inning batting average; both starters are confirmed and probables are fresh.
    • Confirmed top-five lineups against right-handed pitching show moderate xwOBA ranges: Milwaukee .325-.371, Tampa Bay .336-.352.
    • No external sharp reference exists for this F5 rung; the coherence check supports the read but does not independently prove value.
  38. Milwaukee Brewers spread −1
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jacob Misiorowski: 1.80 ERA, 2.13 expected ERA, 12.98 K/9; Tampa lineup xwOBA is .311. Milwaukee lineup xwOBA versus Drew Rasmussen is .3284.
    • Pinnacle prices Milwaukee -137 on the moneyline and +131 at -1.5; those are different rungs, but both support Milwaukee directionally.
    • Most likely loss: Tampa Bay wins outright; the Brewers must win by at least two for this -1 ticket to win.
  39. Game total over 5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle over 6.5 moved from -111 to -103; Brewers lead the run-line and moneyline size on ProphetX.
    • Most likely loss: the game finishes with five or fewer runs; both starters carry sub-3.10 ERAs and the park run factor is 96.

Questions

Who won Brewers vs. Rays?

The Brewers won 4-1 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.