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FinalToyota Stadium · Frisco
Los Angeles FC
0–1Final
Dallas
Score by period
Team12T
LOS000
DALL101

Top model pick, graded

Won

Match total over 2.5 goals NO 49¢

Why Team Sheet likes it: Confirmed XI data was present by 4:55:54 PDT; Petar Musa, Santiago Moreno, Heung-min Son, and Denis Bouanga are listed.

Team SheetDown 1% this season · 75 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-4 on this game · +31% return

  1. Los Angeles FC to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Team Sheet Pairs
    • live confirmed XI lists Son Heung-min and Denis Bouanga starting; the official LAFC report retrieved now listed both OUT for international duty.
    • LAFC confirmed-XI attacking xG is 1.94 versus the usual-XI baseline 1.78, a +0.16 delta; Dallas is 1.96 versus 1.97.
    • No pre-lineup ProphetX history was captured, so TIMING is unverified; this is projection-only and capped LEAN.
    Number Earned
    • Independent fair line is +165, equivalent to roughly 37.7¢ fair probability.
    • LAFC lead opponent-adjusted attacking xG, 1.16 to 1.10 per match.
    • Dallas is 5-3-2 at home, while LAFC are only 2-5-3 away in the venue splits.
  2. Total goals under 2.52 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Long Tail Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Dixon-Coles expected goals total is 2.47, only modestly above the 2.5 threshold.
    • Sharp 2.5-goal prices imply roughly 49.5% fair probability for the under; the model is about 5.5 points higher.
    • The model edge is modest and relies on a single pregame model rather than an independently validated calibration.
    Long Tail Pairs
    • Eric Quill’s Dallas is set up as a defensive-block/counter side; Marc Dos Santos needs quick combinations and midfield control.
    • Official LAFC preview confirms seven absences, including six attackers; Dallas also loses Musa, Kamungo and Binyamin.
    • Most likely loss: an early Dallas counter breaks the intended controlled pace and the match reaches three goals.
  3. Match total over 2.5 goals NO
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Team SheetDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed XI data was present by 4:55:54 PDT; Petar Musa, Santiago Moreno, Heung-min Son, and Denis Bouanga are listed.
    • Dallas XI attacking xG is 1.96 versus 2.96 norm (-33.7%); Los Angeles FC is 1.94 versus 3.08 (-36.9%).
    • Kalshi's last change was 4:52:00 PDT, before the confirmed-XI timestamp; the venue had not repriced.
    • XI-quality norms are timestamped September 19 and 24, not fully current.
  4. Under 2.5 Total Goals
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 7% last 7 days
  5. Match total goals under 2.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opp-adjusted xG: Dallas projected 1.28 (1.10 xGF, 1.46 LAFC xGA); LAFC projected 1.32 (1.16 xGF, 1.48 Dallas xGA); total 2.61.
    • Only 10 xG-backed matches per side, below the brief's preferred 12-game tier; the projected total is therefore less stable.
  6. Los Angeles FC first team to score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 47.8% corrected LAFC first-score probability: 47.3% constant-hazard base, plus a 0.5-point late-strength tilt.
    • Lambdas: Dallas 1.20; Los Angeles FC 1.28. Away race share is 51.6% before the late-strength tilt.
    • Late-goal counts rose from 172 in minutes 0-15 to 339 in 76-90 across 458 fixtures with 1,419 goals; the No-Goal correction was +1.0 point.
Show all 10 picks
  1. FC Dallas under 2.5 total goals
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Matchday Minus OneDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model lambdas total 2.47 imply roughly 55% under 2.5; the market charges 48¢.
    • Current previews report Dallas without fresh concerns, while LAFC are depleted, including suspended Sergi Palencia and Aaron Long.
    • LAFC defensive absences can increase Dallas' scoring enough to break the under despite LAFC's attacking depletion.
  2. Both Teams To Score NO
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas scoring read 73.5%; LAFC scoring read 73.5%: symmetric matchup, not an asymmetric BTTS-NO case.
    • Independent BTTS-YES estimate is 54.1%, making NO 45.9% versus a 43¢ entry: projection edge.
    • Opponent clean-sheet rates are 20% for LAFC and 30% for Dallas, supporting a close projection rather than a strong YES.
    • The estimated edge is small, roughly 2.9 points versus the executable NO price; model error can erase it.
  3. Los Angeles FC spread over 1.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 13¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Goal-difference sample is lumpy: MLS 2026 had 100 draws, 86 home wins by one, 69 away wins by one, and only 43 away wins by 2+ in 388 matches.
    • The same-season MLS sample produced away-team 2+ margins only 43/388 (11.1%), below the matchup model's 17.0% estimate.
  4. Dallas spread −1Long shot
    0%Push

    Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days

Questions

Who won Los Angeles FC vs. Dallas?

Dallas won 1-0 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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