MLS This WeekPicks & predictions · Oct 28 to Nov 1

Under 3.51 modelWon

Picked 2h+ before kickoff

Edge: Opp-adjusted xG: New England 1.43 (1.27 home xGF, 1.59 Miami xGA); Miami 1.54 (1.43 away xGF, 1.65 New England xGA).

Risk: Raw, unadjusted xG sums to 3.26, so the under depends on trusting the opponent-adjusted correction.

Under 3.52 models

Picked 33m before kickoff

Edge: Model lambdas total 3.25; Poisson translation gives roughly 59.2% for 0-3 goals.

Risk: no independent sharp price exists on the same 3.5 rung; Pinnacle's live reference is an off-line 3.2 total.

Under 3.52 models

Edge: Confirmed starting XIs at 6:10 PM show no late attacking rotation surprise.

Risk: No same-rung sharp reference; the roughly 3.1 market-implied mean is ladder-derived from Kalshi prices.