FinalBoston Stadium · Foxborough
New York RB
2–3Final
New England
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| NE | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 4.5 total goals 27¢
Why Deep Book likes it: The rung clears the $300 availability gate and the -250 to +300 price band; both sides are quoted.
Deep BookDown 7% this season · 971 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-9 on this game · −63% return
- New York RB to win−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsLow Tide Line, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Low Tide Line- Pinnacle home price moved from -103 to +110, directionally toward New York RB.
- Pinnacle still prices New York RB at +220, a meaningful disagreement with the warehouse projection.
Number Earned- New York RB’s opponent-adjusted xG attack is 1.55 per match, versus New England’s 1.33 at home.
- New York RB leads the matchup’s expected-goals model despite New England’s 106.8-point Elo home advantage.
- New England is 7-3 at home with 18 goals scored and 16 conceded in the venue split.
- Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- opp-adjusted xG blend is 2.87 goals: New England 1.39, New York RB 1.48.
- Thin MLS sample: both teams have 10 games with xG coverage; model fair under 3.5 is approximately 65%.
- Pinnacle under 3.5 -114 de-vigs to about 51.7%; ProphetX offers 54.13¢ at this rung.
- Both xG windows are only 10 matches, the thin-tier error bar; one finishing outlier can overwhelm the projection.
- Match total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days - Game under 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Novig
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 63.7% total-goal estimate from warehouse lambdas of 1.43 home + 1.62 away.
- Warehouse model makes over 2.5 only 58.7%; the 3.5 threshold adds a meaningful one-goal cushion.
- Both teams have four days' rest and no fixture-congestion flag.
- New York RB's away non-penalty xG is 1.59 and New England's home xG against is 1.64.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: New England scoring read 77.2% (oppadj xGF 1.33 vs New York RB xGA 1.65); New York RB read 79.7% (oppadj xGF 1.55 vs New England xGA 1.64), with 64, 65 xG-backed matches each.
- Both teams' scoring probabilities are high, so one goal by each side loses immediately; a normal 1-1 or 2-1 result defeats NO.
- Match total under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- no qualifying Long Haul decay pillar: both teams have 4 rest days and derived New York-to-New England travel is only about 284 km.
- AS.com lists confirmed starting XIs for both teams; the warehouse's 2:00pm lineup snapshot still says expected, so the confirmation is independently sourced.
- This is not a schedule-decay edge: travel is short, rest is even, and no aggregate state applies.
Show all 9 picks
- New York RB spread YES over 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 15¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted inputs: New England 1.33 xGF/1.41 xGA; New York RB 1.55 xGF/1.45 xGA; DC lambdas 1.43/1.62, each 10-match xG coverage.
- Recent 100 MLS matches produced 16 away margins of 2+; this matchup's away scoring lambda supports the higher projection.
- Ten-match xG samples are useful but still vulnerable to lineup and opponent-quality noise.
- Over 4.5 total goals+270%Won
Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The rung clears the $300 availability gate and the -250 to +300 price band; both sides are quoted.
- ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-28 1:43:13 PM PDT. The +270 offer is 27.03¢ implied by venue conversion.
- Most likely loss: the match finishes with four or fewer goals; 4.5 is a high threshold against 3.04 model expected goals.
- Game BTTS No−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The 6.5-point probability gap is substantial even before accounting for the model's 61.5% BTTS-Yes estimate.
- New England's opponent-adjusted xG for is 1.33, while New York RB's is 1.55; neither attack is priced as a clear mismatch.
- The model still favors BTTS Yes at 61.5%, so this is a contrarian position.
Questions
Who won New York RB vs. New England?
New England won 3-2 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.