FinalToronto Stadium · Toronto
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| DC | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TORO | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 1.5 1H goals scored 59¢
Why Half Light likes it: That split reconciles the 1H mean to 1.15 goals versus 1.43 from the 1H ladder: +0.28 goals incoherence.
Half LightDown 7% this season · 135 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-7 on this game · −35% return
- DC United to win−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsFair Price Pairs, Long Tail Pairs +1Why 3 models like it
Fair Price Pairs- Pinnacle's 3-way away price was +286, context only.
- The 5.58-point gap is LEAN, so model calibration and match variance dominate the edge.
Long Tail Pairs- René Weiler's DC side carries the warehouse congestion flag on four days' rest; its official XI was confirmed at 3:50pm PT.
- Scheme read: DC's directness ratio is 0.96 with 0.48 field tilt, close to Toronto's 0.97/0.47; the away plan is not territorially outmatched.
- Toronto owns a 111.1 home-minus-away Elo edge; DC is 2-3-5 away with a -9 goal difference.
Deep Book- The quoted size is only 35.2% of displayed depth, so the offer can reprice before kickoff.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsTeam Sheet, Both NetsWhy 2 models like it
Team Sheet- Confirmed XI posted at 3:50 PM PDT; Gabriel Segal is absent from DC United's XI.
- Segal's listed xG/90 is 1.64, clearing the desk's 0.35 shock threshold; the rate is based on 126 minutes.
- Toronto scored 17 goals in 10 home matches; one Toronto goal plus a replacement DC United scorer defeats NO.
Both Nets- Projection: Toronto scoring probability ~75.7% and DC United ~76.3%, from 10 xG matches each, using attack versus opponent defense.
- Symmetric both-sides-score-freely setup, not the asymmetric weak-attacker/strong-defense case; NO is a price-driven projection position.
- Both teams have strong scoring reads: the projection still gives roughly 57.7% for BTTS-YES, so NO loses if both convert.
- Match under 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted scoring/conceding averages imply Toronto 1.41 and DC United 1.44 goals; independent-Poisson under 2.5 is about 45.8%.
- Sharp anchor: Pinnacle total 3.0, over -120 / under +105; this supports the lower-total read, though its push line differs.
- The two rate-based estimates differ: under 2.5 ranges about 43.4%, 45.8%; advantage over 36¢ is meaningful but not enormous.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- That split reconciles the 1H mean to 1.15 goals versus 1.43 from the 1H ladder: +0.28 goals incoherence.
- Reconciled P(1H over 1.5) is about 31.9%, versus Kalshi's 41.5% midpoint; NO is offered at 59¢.
- Official XIs are not posted; Toronto has two listed outs and DC United one.
- Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG blend: Toronto 1.41 plus DC United 1.44 equals 2.85 expected goals, from 10 xG games each.
- Poisson translation is roughly 69% under 3.5; I haircut to 67% for MLS scoring variance.
- Both teams have four rest days; PPDA 14.74/16.13 and field tilt .469/.479 provide no hot-tempo upgrade.
- Only 10 xG-backed matches per team: moderate coverage leaves meaningful error around the 2.85-goal estimate.
- Match under 3.5 total goals+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG: Toronto 1.33 for / 1.36 against; DC United 1.52 for / 1.50 against; expected total ≈2.85.
- Kalshi ladder midpoints imply approximately 3.16 goals through 5.5; projection is 0.31 lower than that truncated reference.
- Only 10 xG matches each, below the brief’s 12-game top-coverage tier; model uncertainty is material.
Show all 9 picks
- DC United moneyline +215−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- no Long Haul decay pillar cleared: both sides have 4 rest days, venue is grass, travel is unrecorded, and no aggregate state applies.
- captured three-way Pinnacle away price was +286; context only, while this claim is the ProphetX 2-way contract.
- Most likely loss: Toronto wins or the match draws; a draw is a loss on this 2-way moneyline.
- Toronto spread NO 2.5+14%Won
Taken at 88¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 MLS sample of 466 matches is lumpy: 0-goal margin 26.4%, +1 21.9%, +2 12.9%; home wins by 3+ were 10.7%.
- Official XIs are not posted yet; late lineup news and the listed roster departures could materially change both scoring rates.
- DC United under 3.5 total goals+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model xG totals 2.96; a Poisson translation gives roughly 65.6% for 0-3 goals.
- Toronto's home xG for/against profile is 1.41/1.52; DC United's away profile is 1.57/1.76.
- Both teams have negative recent goal-difference form; Toronto is 5-5-7 over its last 17 and DC United 3-7-6.
- MLS totals are high-variance; three goals still wins, but a fourth goal loses the contract.
Questions
Who won DC United vs. Toronto?
Toronto won 2-1 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.