FinalEnergizer Park
Portland Timbers
3–2Final
St. Louis City
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| SLC | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonPortland Timbers spread +1 64¢
Why Two Goal Cushion likes it: Lambdas are St. Louis 1.37 and Portland 1.61; the mass favors Portland avoiding a two-goal defeat.
Two Goal CushionUp 3% return this season · 178 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-6 on this game · +38% return
- Portland Timbers to win+194%Won
Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsFair Price Pairs, Low Tide Line +1Why 3 models like it
Fair Price Pairs- Pinnacle's 3-way Portland price was +258, context only; it is not the same contract.
- The model was computed through October 24, so late roster information may be under-reflected.
Low Tide Line- Model away-win probability is 42.8% versus Kalshi's 27c Portland YES price: a 15.8-point gap.
- Kalshi and ProphetX home prices both eased modestly late, a placement-market move toward Portland.
- Pinnacle moved to St. Louis -101 / Portland +255, materially opposing the warehouse projection.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Warehouse model gives Portland 42.8% to win versus Novig's 26.5c takeable price.
- Portland's opponent-adjusted away xG attack is 1.45, while St. Louis' home figure is 1.45.
- The model is materially more bullish than the live market, so calibration is the central uncertainty.
- Match under 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG blend gives expected total 2.84 goals, below the 3.5-goal rung.
- Dixon-Coles model has over 2.5 at 0.57, consistent with a 2, 3 goal central range rather than requiring four goals.
- Mixed tempo, PPDA 10.52 vs 14.04 and field tilt .458 vs .577, does not justify an upward adjustment to the xG total.
- Projected lineups are expected, not confirmed; late personnel changes could move the goal environment.
- Portland Timbers spread +1+56%Won
Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Lambdas are St. Louis 1.37 and Portland 1.61; the mass favors Portland avoiding a two-goal defeat.
- Moderate coverage: only 10 xG matches per side; the estimated dc_rho is -0.05, so the margin tails remain uncertain.
- Match under 3.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted blend: St. Louis λ≈1.36; Portland λ≈1.48 (total ≈2.84).
- The model’s own rates are 1.36 and 1.61 (total 2.98); its under-3.5 probability is about 65%.
- Pinnacle anchors the total at 3.25, under -108; Kalshi under 3.5 is offered at 56¢.
- The rate blend and model differ by about 0.14 expected goals; either estimate could be off.
- Portland Timbers +1.5+37%Won
Taken at 73¢ on Polymarket US
Soccer Default PicksUp 23% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Portland's xG profile is 1.68 for and 1.32 against; St. Louis is 1.55 for and 1.61 against.
- Main market context is favorable: the model makes St. Louis 31.9% versus 48.5% market-implied home win probability.
- Portland's raw model win probability is only 42.8%; the handicap estimate requires translating 1X2 and xG into margin risk.
- Over 0.5 1H goals scored+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kalshi 1H ladder fits Poisson mean 0.75 goals: quoted tails 0.54, 0.17, 0.04 plus fitted tail.
- Full-match ladder sums to 2.54 expected goals across seven live YES tails.
- Applying that split to 2.54 gives 1.09 first-half goals, a 0.34-goal violation versus the 1H ladder.
- The match is live at 24' and 0-0; a whole-half league share is not a conditional remaining-time model.
Show all 11 picks
- Match total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted pregame xG total is 2.84; at 0-0 through 35', proportional remaining expectation is about 1.74 goals.
- Pregame Dixon-Coles still gives Over 2.5 probability 0.57, so the under depends on updating for 0-0 at 35'.
- Game under 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on Novig
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse model projects 1.37 home plus 1.61 away expected goals, a 2.98 total.
- Portland's away xG against is 1.32 and St. Louis' home xG for is 1.55; neither side profiles as a runaway.
- The warehouse model has over 2.5 at only 57.3%, leaving meaningful probability concentrated at 0-3 goals.
- A 3.5 line loses on four or more goals; MLS variance and late-game chasing are substantial.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Independent-side read gives BTTS YES ≈58.7%, NO ≈41.3%; the 34¢ NO price leaves about 7.3 percentage points.
- Only 10 xG matches for each side; this is a real sample but still materially noisier than a long-run baseline.
- Portland Timbers moneyline +172+170%Won
Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- no schedule-decay pillar cleared; the PIT warehouse model gives Portland a 42.8% 90-minute win probability with lambda away 1.61 versus 1.37 home.
- Portland's opponent-adjusted xG differential is +0.17 per match versus St. Louis City's -0.06, supporting the model's away lean despite the home Elo advantage.
- captured Pinnacle's three-way away price is +255; context only, while the filed contract is ProphetX's two-way moneyline.
- Most likely loss: a draw or St. Louis win; this two-way contract has no draw protection and a draw is a loss.
- Portland Timbers spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 12¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection edge; stored lambdas are St. Louis 1.37 and Portland 1.61, with Portland-by-2+ cross-check near 21%; my blended win chance is 19%.
- 2026 MLS sample: 466 matches, with 56 away-side margins of at least two goals (12.0%); the model's higher matchup-specific tail is the disagreement being targeted.
- The current-season MLS empirical away-by-2+ rate is only 12.0%, so the lambda tail may be overstated; the xG sample is just 10 matches per side.
Questions
Who won Portland Timbers vs. St. Louis City?
Portland Timbers won 3-2 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.