FinalSoldier Field · Chicago
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| OC | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| CHIC | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMatch under 4.5 total goals 59¢
Why Soccer Default Picks likes it: Attack/defense blend from the feature row projects roughly 3.33 total goals, below the 4.5 threshold.
Soccer Default PicksDown 1% this season · 223 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-4 on this game · +28% return
- Match under 4.5 total goals+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US
Soccer Default PicksUp 23% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Attack/defense blend from the feature row projects roughly 3.33 total goals, below the 4.5 threshold.
- The same full-game contract is quoted at 59¢ on Polymarket US, materially below my 78% win estimate.
- Both teams have meaningful attacking talent, and four goals still leaves only one goal of room.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- fitted 1H mean 1.86 versus fitted full-match mean 4.18.
- Keeping the full ladder and measured split gives a reconciled 1H mean of 1.35 and P(over 1.5) about 39%.
- The full ladder fit is 4.18 goals, above the warehouse Dixon-Coles total lambda of 3.63; the tie-breaker is not independent market information.
- Match under 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG: Chicago home XGF/XGA 1.40/1.10; Orlando away XGF/XGA 1.57/2.26.
- Kalshi ladder fits approximately 4.15 implied goals; Over 3.5 YES is 0.60, while Under/NO is offered at 0.40.
- Dixon-Coles has Over 2.5 at 0.70 and Under 2.5 at 0.30, implying a hotter distribution than the xG mean.
- Match under 3.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model rates: Chicago 2.35, Orlando 1.28; independent-Poisson total gives about 51% under 3.5.
- Pinnacle's fresh sharp total is 4 goals (-106/-108), a useful anchor around the model's 3.63 combined rate.
- The 3.5-goal Kalshi rung is active and liquid: 4,649 contracts traded.
- Poisson independence is an approximation; the 10-game rate sample is small and high-scoring outcomes are volatile.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: Chicago's blended scoring read is about 84% (1.85 expected goals from 1.40 oppadj xGF versus Orlando's 2.31 xGA).
- Projection: Orlando's blended scoring read is about 76% (1.44 expected goals from 1.57 oppadj xGF versus Chicago's 1.30 xGA).
- This is not the strongest asymmetric BTTS-NO setup: both teams have fairly high scoring reads, so NO still loses about 34% by the model.
- Chicago Fire spread NO 1.5+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Lambda/DC cross-check estimates Chicago winning by 2+ at about 39.7%, making NO about 60.3% versus 58¢: roughly a 2.3-point edge.
- Expected, not confirmed, lineups: Robin Jansson is out for Orlando; Robin Lod and André Franco are out for Chicago.
Show all 7 picks
- Draw+456%Won
Taken at 18¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Chicago home form is 4-2-4; Orlando away form is 5-3-2, supporting a competitive result distribution.
- The model edge is only about 1.83 percentage points before any exchange fees.
Questions
Who won Orlando City vs. Chicago Fire?
Chicago Fire won 2-2 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.