FinalSeattle Stadium · Seattle
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOUS | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SEAT | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMatch under 3.5 total goals 65¢
Why Soccer Default Picks likes it: Model xG totals 2.81 (Seattle 1.59, Houston 1.22), yielding 69% under 3.5 by a Poisson goal conversion.
Soccer Default PicksDown 1% this season · 223 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-1 on this game · +103% return
- Match under 3.5 total goals+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US
Soccer Default PicksUp 23% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model xG totals 2.81 (Seattle 1.59, Houston 1.22), yielding 69% under 3.5 by a Poisson goal conversion.
- Polymarket US quotes the exact full-game under-3.5 contract at 65¢, below the model's 69% probability.
- Both teams have significant listed attacking departures: Seattle loses Dejan Joveljić and Daniel Musovski; Houston loses Ezequiel Ponce and Lyle Foster.
- Poisson conversion understates MLS goal clustering and red-card variance.
- Both Teams To Score−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: blended scoring reads are Seattle 83% and Houston 75%; product implies BTTS-YES 62.5%.
- Symmetric case: both attacks face defenses allowing 1.59, 1.95 xG against per match; neither side is a shutout-dependent wager.
- Seattle has 30% clean sheets and Houston 30% across 10 defensive-signal matches; either can keep the opponent scoreless.
- Match total goals under 2.5+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days - Houston Dynamo to win+376%Won
Taken at 21¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model expected goals are Seattle 1.84 and Houston 1.21, yet Houston retains a meaningful 24.6% away-win outcome.
- Houston's XI was confirmed at 6:50pm PT; the participant-identity gate is satisfied.
- Houston is 0-1-4 in its last five and 1-7-2 away in the venue-split form sample.
- Houston Dynamo spread +1.5+45%Won
Taken at 69¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted inputs: Seattle home xGF 1.37 / Houston away xGA 1.81; Houston away xGF 1.07 / Seattle home xGA 1.52.
- Dixon-Coles lambdas 1.84, 1.21 cross-check to about 29.3% Seattle winning by 2+; Houston +1.5 about 70.7%.
- MLS empirical distribution before this match had 12.9% home wins by exactly 2 and 10.7% by 3+, a broad competition sample rather than a Seattle-specific sample.
Questions
Who won Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders?
Houston Dynamo won 1-0 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.