FinalVancouver Stadium · Vancouver
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| VANC | 2 | 2 | 4 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-8 on this game · −100% return
- San Diego +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsCoaches Corner, Soccer Default PicksWhy 2 models like it
Coaches Corner- Vancouver's 4-3-3 becomes a 3-2-5; its aggressive fullback press leaves transition space behind.
- San Diego's Varas system uses a 4-3-3, 537.9 passes/90 and 87.3% accuracy to bypass pressure.
- Both projected XIs are last-game lineups, not confirmed; tactical roles can change before kickoff.
Soccer Default Picks- San Diego's rolling xG-for rate is 1.98 versus Vancouver's 1.59, and San Diego leads the model's away-win probability despite the market's heavy home favoritism.
- Official XIs are not confirmed; the lineup surface is only last-game projection roughly 46 minutes before kickoff.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- MLS first-half share measured at 35.0%: 42 first-half goals of 115 across 40 recent fixtures.
- Full-match ladder fits to 3.69 goals; the measured split reconciles 1H mean to 1.29.
- The clean 1H ladder fits to 1.70 goals; Over 1.5 is 50.5%, versus about 37.0% reconciled. Incoherence: 0.41 goals / 13.5 points.
- The 40-fixture split sample can move; 35.0% is not a league constant.
- BTTS NO−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: blended xG gives Vancouver 76.6% and San Diego 80.8% to score; BTTS-YES ≈61.9%.
- Symmetric BTTS case: both sides carry strong scoring chances; this is not a one-weak-attacker defense setup.
- xG coverage is adequate but not deep: Vancouver has 10 and San Diego 9 xG matches.
- Match total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days - Game under 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model lambdas total 3.23 imply approximately 59% for 3 or fewer goals.
- Warehouse model prices over 2.5 at 62.7%, leaving substantial mass on exactly three goals rather than four-plus.
- Kalshi offers the under contract at 46¢, below my 59% estimate.
- Vancouver is 16-8-7 with 55 points; San Diego is 8-12-11 with 35, making the model's broader upset lean suspect.
- San Diego spread +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
Show all 7 picks
- San Diego to win−100%Lost
Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse Dixon-Coles model makes San Diego the winner 48.4%, despite the market's strong Vancouver bias.
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors San Diego 1.82 for versus Vancouver's 1.39; Vancouver's adjusted xGA is 1.38.
- Vancouver has four listed absences, including Thomas Müller and Kenji Cabrera; San Diego has points in three straight.
- Both projected XIs are still expected, not confirmed; the warehouse's roster-change and lineup feeds conflict on some player statuses.
Questions
Who won San Diego vs. Vancouver Whitecaps?
Vancouver Whitecaps won 4-1 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.