FinalBank of America Stadium · Charlotte
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CHA | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonBoth Teams To Score NO 37¢
Why Both Nets likes it: Charlotte scoring probability ~77% (9 xG matches; 1.31 oppadj xGF blended with Montréal's 1.87 xGA).
Both NetsDown 6% this season · 589 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-9 on this game · −73% return
- CF Montréal spread +1−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTwo Goal Cushion, Team Sheet PairsWhy 2 models like it
Two Goal Cushion- The +1 rung tests the Charlotte one-goal boundary: draws and Montréal results win; exactly a one-goal Charlotte win pushes and returns stake.
- MODERATE coverage: only 9 xG matches support the lambdas, so the roughly 6.1-point model/reference gap remains sample-sensitive.
Team Sheet Pairs- Confirmed XI at 3:50pm: Charlotte omits regular starter Tim Ream (8/10 starts, 6.65 club rating) and Brandt Bronico (3/10, 6.57); Will Cleary (6/10, 6.55) is also out.
- Charlotte's confirmed lineup still has its two strongest attacking returns, Idan Toklomati (7.36 rating, 0.54 xG/90) and Allan Saint-Maximin (7.30, 0.70 big chances created/90), supporting the safer +1 rather than an outright fade.
- Charlotte's attacking core starts: Toklomati and Saint-Maximin can turn the defensive absences into a multi-goal home win.
- CF Montréal to win−100%Lost
Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsLow Tide Line, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Low Tide Line- Directional coherence: projection and cohort favor Montréal; Pinnacle's level disagrees, but its home line moved from -176 to -146, running toward Montréal.
- Pinnacle remains a strong contrary reference, implying roughly 20% for Montréal after removing its three-way margin; the 15.3-point model gap may reflect a model miss.
Number Earned- Underlying model goals are nearly even: Charlotte 1.59, CF Montréal 1.53.
- Both defenses project vulnerable: opponent-adjusted xGA is 2.05 for Charlotte and 1.64 for Montréal.
- Montréal are 1-1-8 away with 7 goals scored; this is a high-variance longshot.
- Under 3.5 goals scored−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted rates imply about 1.48 Charlotte and 1.53 Montréal goals; combined mean ≈3.00.
- Independent-Poisson estimate puts 0, 3 goals near 65%; fixture model’s λ pair (1.59, 1.53) implies about 62%.
- Kalshi’s NO over 3.5 costs 55¢; Pinnacle’s sharp total is 3.25, a useful anchor rather than a Kalshi-only signal.
- Only 10 competitive matches underpin the current-season goal-rate sample; Poisson independence and conversion assumptions may be wrong.
- CF Montréal +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US
Soccer Default PicksUp 23% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Rolling xG is balanced-to-home-vulnerable: Charlotte 1.44 for/2.20 against; Montréal 1.07 for/1.87 against.
- Polymarket US offers the binary CF Montréal +1.5 contract at 65¢, protecting against a one-goal Charlotte win.
- Own final probability: 74% for CF Montréal to avoid a two-goal defeat.
- Official XIs are not posted; lineup data is last-game projection rather than confirmed starters.
- Under 3.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Both teams have four rest days and no fixture-congestion flag; this is a single weigh row, not the primary read.
- Most likely loss is four or more goals; the model's goal mass remains broad around the 3-goal area.
- Match total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PPDA is mixed (Charlotte 18.96, Montréal 12.99), so no aggressive high-tempo nudge overrides the xG read.
- There is no independent same-rung sharp reference; Pinnacle's captured 3.25 line is off-rung and not used for validation.
Show all 8 picks
- Both Teams To Score NO+170%Won
Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Charlotte scoring probability ~77% (9 xG matches; 1.31 oppadj xGF blended with Montréal's 1.87 xGA).
- CF Montréal scoring probability ~78% (10 xG matches; 1.01 oppadj xGF blended with Charlotte's 2.20 xGA).
- Independent Poisson-style product gives BTTS-YES ~60.4%, hence BTTS-NO ~39.6%; this is a broadly symmetric case, not a classic asymmetric shutdown.
- The model still expects both teams to score frequently; any 1-1, 2-1, or higher-scoring result loses NO.
- CF Montréal spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 8¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent MLS distribution: 17 of the last 120 comparable matches (14.2%) had the away side win by at least two; mass remains concentrated at 0/1/2-goal margins.
- No independent sharp same-rung -1.5 price is posted; Pinnacle's -1 line is not interchangeable, so this is capped at LEAN rather than RECOMMENDED.
Questions
Who won CF Montréal vs. Charlotte?
Charlotte won 4-0 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.