FinalToyota Stadium · Frisco
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| COLU | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| DALL | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMatch under 3.5 total goals 57¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Opp-adjusted xG: Dallas 1.46 for / 1.53 against; Columbus Crew 1.06 for / 1.44 against; both sides have 10 xG-backed matches.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 8-1 on this game · +86% return
- Total goals under 3.5+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsSoccer Default Picks, Low Tide LineWhy 2 models like it
Soccer Default Picks- Model lambdas total 2.75 (Dallas 1.55, Columbus 1.20); derived under-3.5 probability is about 70%.
- Confirmed lineups and four rest days each reduce the specific-XI and fatigue uncertainty.
- An early goal, penalty, or red card can create a high-variance MLS game state.
Low Tide Line- Warehouse lambdas 1.55 and 1.20 imply 2.75 goals; derived under-3.5 probability is 70.3%.
- Live Pinnacle reference is 3.2 goals with Under -111, directionally agreeing though it is a different line.
- Pinnacle's total moved from 3.0 to 3.25 since early morning, a number move against the under.
- Match under 3.5 total goals+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG: Dallas 1.46 for / 1.53 against; Columbus Crew 1.06 for / 1.44 against; both sides have 10 xG-backed matches.
- Minimum coverage is 10 matches per side, below the desk's preferred 12-match top tier; the xG estimate remains sample-sensitive.
- Under 2.5 Total Goals+178%Won
Taken at 36¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: Dallas 1.46 for / 1.53 against; Columbus 1.06 / 1.44; has_xg true and gp_with_xg 10/10.
- Both XIs are expected rather than confirmed; the latest lineup snapshot is from 2:47 PM PDT.
- Both Teams To Score NO+194%Won
Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dallas scoring read: λ≈1.45 from oppadj xGF 1.46 versus Columbus xGA 1.45; P(Dallas scores)≈76.5%.
- Columbus scoring read: λ≈1.31 from oppadj xGF 1.06 versus Dallas xGA 1.57; P(Columbus scores)≈73.1%.
- The 44.1% NO estimate uses independent xG proxies; finishing variance and scoring correlation can push BTTS-YES higher.
- Dallas to win−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Eric Quill’s full-time 3-5-2 gives Dallas a defined transitional plan with wingback width and vertical attack.
- Dallas averages 45.4% possession over the last 10, while Columbus averages 51.5%; the matchup favors Dallas attacking transition space rather than forcing possession.
- Columbus is in an interim-coach transition under Laurent Courtois after Henrik Rydström’s dismissal, reducing scheme continuity.
- Columbus has the stronger recent possession and passing profile, which can pin Dallas’s wingbacks and blunt transition outlets.
- Game total under 3.5+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Tailgate
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse lambdas are 1.55 home and 1.20 away, total 2.75.
- A Poisson read from those lambdas gives approximately 70.3% for 0, 3 goals.
- Tailgate's current takeable price is 58¢, below the model's estimated 70.3% win chance.
- The 2.75-goal estimate is model-derived and the underlying features stop at October 24.
Show all 8 picks
- Game BTTS No+194%Won
Taken at 34¢ on Tailgate
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse BTTS-No probability is 44.3%; Tailgate's takeable price is 34¢.
- Pinnacle's current devigged BTTS-No reference is 33.7%, while the warehouse model is materially higher.
- Combined warehouse goal lambdas are 2.75, supporting a meaningful chance that one side blanks.
- The market strongly favors BTTS Yes; the warehouse model could be miscalibrated for this matchup.
- Columbus Crew spread NO 2.5+5%Won
Taken at 95¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted inputs: Dallas attack 1.46 / Columbus defense 1.44; Columbus attack 1.06 / Dallas defense 1.53.
- Lambda cross-check gives Columbus 3+ goals ahead about 3.9%; NO fair probability is about 96.1% versus a 95¢ price.
- The roughly 1.1-point edge is thin and below a robust recommendation threshold; the lambda read could simply be wrong.
Questions
Who won Columbus Crew vs. Dallas?
Columbus Crew won 2-0 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.