FinalGEODIS Park
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHIL | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NASH | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonBoth Teams To Score NO 41¢
Why Team Sheet likes it: Confirmed XI at 4:50pm PDT omitted expected starters Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge.
Team SheetDown 1% this season · 75 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-13 on this game · −64% return
- Nashville SC to win−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
2 modelsCoaches Corner, ParallaxWhy 2 models like it
Coaches Corner- Nashville's Callaghan uses a hybrid 4-3-3 defensive block against sustained possession, a direct scheme answer to Philadelphia's aggressive high press.
- Nashville can morph into a 3-2-5 in possession, offering a composed escape route rather than feeding Carnell's pressure triggers.
- Philadelphia's press can create high-value transition chances if Nashville's build-up execution breaks down.
Parallax- Kalshi moved from 55.5¢ to 48.5¢ over roughly 30 minutes, a 12.6% relative move; the quote is volatile.
- Both teams to score−100%Lost
Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsBoth Sides Dangerous, Both NetsWhy 2 models like it
Both Sides Dangerous- Opponent-adjusted xGF is 1.86 for Nashville and 2.23 for Philadelphia.
- Recent shot output is strong on both sides: Nashville 15.3 shots/6.3 on target, Philadelphia 17.5/6.4.
- Both XIs remain expected rather than officially confirmed, so a late goalkeeper or striker change could materially reduce BTTS probability.
Both Nets- Nashville scoring read ~79%: 1.86 oppadj xGF/m blended with Philadelphia's 1.25 xGA/m; 10 xG matches.
- Philadelphia scoring read ~82%: 2.23 oppadj xGF/m blended with Nashville's 1.17 xGA/m; 10 xG matches.
- Expected, not confirmed, lineups; projected XIs and listed absences could change either scoring probability.
- Philadelphia Union to win−100%Lost
Taken at +280 on FanDuel
2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Snapp Decision of the Day- Model win probability 44.4% versus 24.7% Pinnacle devigged fair probability.
- Philadelphia's opponent-adjusted away xG is 2.23, versus Nashville's home 1.86.
- Pinnacle strongly disagrees, making Nashville the near-pick'em favorite at -101.
Number Earned- Base model gives Philadelphia a 44.4% away-win probability; risk-adjusted estimate remains 42%.
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Philadelphia 2.23 to 1.86, with Union away form 8-1-1.
- Model features were computed through October 24, so the estimate may miss late tactical or personnel information.
- Both Teams To Score NO+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
Team SheetDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XI at 4:50pm PDT omitted expected starters Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge.
- Their xG rates are 0.54 and 0.88 per 90; 1.42 goals per 90 removed.
- Nashville lambda moves from 1.64 to 0.22 after the subtraction; BTTS is the news-sensitive contract.
- The 1.42 subtraction treats player xG rates as fully additive; replacement quality is not measured because XI-quality output was empty.
- Philadelphia Union over 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi
Team SheetDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XI observed 2:00 PM PDT; Sal Olivas absent for Philadelphia, xG/90 0.47.
- Philadelphia lambda: 1.93 before, 1.46 after subtracting Olivas's xG/90; Poisson P(2+) ≈42.7%.
- Kalshi PHI over 1.5 changed last at 12:35 PM PDT, before the 2:00 PM PDT XI; no post-news repricing.
- Olivas has only 44 xG-tracked minutes; 0.47 xG/90 is a thin estimate.
- Philadelphia Union or Draw double chance+83%Won
Taken at −120 on DraftKings
Soccer Default PicksUp 23% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- DraftKings -120 implies roughly 54.5% before pricing adjustments, leaving a substantial model gap.
- Philadelphia's recent 17-game form is 12-1-3 with +1.5 scoring margin; Nashville is 11-2-4 with +1.4.
- Philadelphia leads the rolling attacking xG rates, 2.58 per match versus Nashville's 2.18.
- Both projected XIs are expected rather than confirmed; Philadelphia's availability feed has conflicting Andre Blake information.
Show all 13 picks
- Total Goals (Regular Time) over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair total 3.22 goals from opponent-adjusted xG: Nashville 1.52, Philadelphia 1.70 matchup scoring rates.
- Pinnacle's same-rung -156/+134 devigs to 58.8% over; my fair probability is 62%.
- PPDA 11.48/9.72 and field tilt .575/.600 support a modest tempo-up tilt; Dixon-Coles also favors over at 69.1%.
- Only 10 xG matches per team create a wider error bar than the brief's 20-plus-game DEEP tier.
- Nashville SC spread NO 1.5+43%Won
Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- opp-adjusted xG inputs are Nashville 1.86 for / 1.16 against and Philadelphia 2.23 for / 1.19 against; both have 10 xG games.
- Expected rather than confirmed lineups; the feed lists meaningful absences and lacks a verified coaching-change assessment.
- Quinn Sullivan over 2.0 shots−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Last five recorded matches average 2.5 shots, 25% above the 2.0 line.
- Last 10 recorded matches: 20 shots across nine matches with recorded shot data, 2.22 per match.
- Philadelphia's kickoff matchup projects 17.5 team shots versus Nashville's 11.4 shots conceded per match.
- Shots are volatile and the 10-match sample includes one missing shot entry.
- Match over 1.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- At 0-0 through 32', a simple remaining-time adjustment gives approximately 2.08 expected remaining goals and about 59% for two or more; Kalshi's ladder implies roughly 1.8-1.9 goals from its 0.84 Over 0.5 and 0.55 Over 1.5 prices.
- This is a live add at a new 1.5 line while an existing over 2.5 position remains open; the 0-0 score through 32' is already adverse to the original high-total thesis.
- Match over 2.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG projects Nashville 1.52 and Philadelphia 1.70; combined expected total is 3.22 goals.
- A Poisson-equivalent market mean is roughly 3.10 goals from the 60% Over 2.5 price; my 3.22-goal projection implies about 62.5% Over.
- Both lineups are expected rather than confirmed, and the feed lists substantial personnel changes since the prior meeting.
- Philadelphia Union over 2.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at −155 on BetMGM
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model over-2.5 probability is 69.1% versus roughly 60.8% implied by BetMGM -155.
- Model expected goals total 3.56, from lambdas of 1.64 for Nashville and 1.93 for Philadelphia.
- Opponent-adjusted xG is strong on both sides: Nashville 1.86 for and Philadelphia 2.23 for.
- Only three head-to-head meetings are on file, averaging 1.67 goals with BTTS in one of three.
- Philadelphia Union and Nashville SC both teams to score−100%Lost
Taken at −165 on DraftKings
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse model projects both teams scoring 69.3%; risk-adjusted estimate is still 68%.
- Expected-goal lambdas are 1.64 for Nashville and 1.93 for Philadelphia.
- Both teams average at least 2.18 expected goals for per match in the relevant home/away splits.
- The head-to-head sample has both teams scoring in only 1 of 3 meetings, though personnel changes reduce its relevance.
Questions
Who won Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC?
Nashville SC won 0-0 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.