FinalChildren's Mercy Park · Kansas City
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| DALL | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SK | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals under 3.5 56¢
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-7 on this game · −41% return
- Total goals over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCoaches Corner, Bench BossWhy 2 models like it
Coaches Corner- Sporting KC have conceded 80 goals, an MLS record, and have not kept a home clean sheet this season.
- Probable 3-4-2-1 Dallas shape attacks the spaces around Sporting KC's probable 4-4-2.
- Warehouse model expects 3.30 goals, slightly below the 3.5 line.
Bench Boss- 4+ goals estimate is about 51% from 1.75 home plus 1.97 away expected goals.
- Dallas presses more and owns more territory: PPDA 12.97 and field tilt .524 versus SKC 15.59 and .456.
- Most likely loss: the match finishes with three or fewer goals despite the elevated combined-goal projection.
- Total goals under 3.5+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsTwo Nil, Early WhistleWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil- Both projected XIs are expected rather than confirmed; late attacking or defensive changes could move the total materially.
Early Whistle- Opponent-adjusted rates imply 1.56 home and 1.66 away goals, totaling 3.22.
- Pinnacle’s sharp reference is 3.25 goals, under -118, providing the required independent total anchor.
- The warehouse model’s own lambda pair is 1.75 and 1.97, totaling 3.71; that implies roughly 49% under 3.5.
- Sporting KC to win−100%Lost
Taken at 28¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Snapp Decision of the Day- Sporting KC's home expected goals are 1.75; Dallas is allowing 1.54 opponent-adjusted xGA away.
- Confirmed lineups preserve the model's attacking setup; Sporting's starters carry 1.86 attacking xG.
- Sporting KC is 2-1-7 at home, while Dallas is 6-2-2 away; the recent form strongly opposes this side.
Number Earned- The sportsbook board also showed Sporting KC at +225, consistent with a contrarian home-value thesis rather than a favorite chase.
- Sporting KC is only 2-1-7 at home in the sampled 10-match home split; Dallas is 6-2-2 away.
- Sporting Kansas City to win0%Push
Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX
Standing OrderDown 16% last 7 days - Over 1.5 1H goals scored−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Full-match ladder implies 3.26 goals: 0.96 + 0.85 + 0.65 + 0.43 + 0.24 + 0.12.
- Recent MLS sample: 29 of 92 goals in the first half, a 31.5% share.
- That split maps the full ladder to a 1H mean of 1.03 goals; Poisson P(Over 1.5) is 27.5%.
- The 29-goal first-half sample covers 30 recent MLS fixtures and may understate the league baseline.
- Both teams to score+52%Won
Taken at 66¢ on Kalshi
Both Sides DangerousDown 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xGA is 1.81 for Sporting KC and 1.54 for Dallas, supporting chances for both attacks.
- Expected goals are balanced: Sporting KC 1.65 and Dallas 1.65 per match.
- The official report lists Dallas suspensions for Nolan Norris and Shaq Moore, while the warehouse expected XI still includes them.
Show all 10 picks
- Over 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Combined expected goals are 3.72: Sporting KC 1.75 and Dallas 1.97.
- The warehouse model gives 71.7% to over 2.5 goals, supporting an elevated scoring baseline.
- Confirmed starters project 1.86 attacking xG for Sporting KC and 1.93 for Dallas.
- The posted threshold is 3.5, not 2.5; four goals are required and the direct over-3.5 probability is an approximate translation.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION edge: Sporting KC scores 79.0% (lambda 1.56 from oppadj attack 1.58 vs Dallas defense 1.54; 10-match xG sample).
- Dallas scores 81.0% (lambda 1.66 from oppadj attack 1.51 vs Sporting KC defense 1.81; 10-match xG sample).
- Only a 1-point model edge at the 35c NO price; the sharp reference is slightly against the position.
- Sporting KC spread +1.5+39%Won
Taken at 72¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles lambdas are Sporting KC 1.75 and Dallas 1.97; an independent low-score cross-check puts Dallas 2+ goals ahead near 24%, implying NO near 76%.
- MLS 2026 empirical distribution: 127/480 draws, 105 one-goal home wins, 61 two-goal home wins, and 52 home wins by 3+; large margins remain lumpy.
- Dallas still projects as the stronger scoring side; a two-goal away win loses the NO contract.
- Sporting KC 2-way to win0%Push
Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
Questions
Who won Dallas vs. Sporting KC?
Sporting KC won 1-1 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.