FinalGEODIS Park
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| NASH | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonNew York RB +2 spread 71¢
Two Goal CushionUp 3% return this season · 178 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-9 on this game · −69% return
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsTwo Nil, Early Whistle +1Why 3 models like it
Two Nil- opp-adjusted xG gives Nashville 1.58 and New York RB 1.36 expected goals; computed total 2.95.
- Market ladder implies at least 3.56 goals from the listed over probabilities through 5.5, versus the 2.95 projection.
- Expected lineups are not confirmed, and the feed has conflicting availability indications for key Nashville/New York players.
Early Whistle- Opponent-adjusted rates are Nashville 1.77 xGF/1.08 xGA and New York RB 1.65/1.39.
- Those inputs produce the model rate pair lambda_home 1.77 and lambda_away 1.28; total lambda is 3.05.
- Expected, not confirmed, XIs: Nashville's projected goalkeeper is Brian Schwake, while roster-change context flags him as an uncertainty.
Open Play- PPDA 11.21/11.96 adds only a +0.05 tempo nudge; equal four-day rest gives no directional tilt; fair total ≈3.00.
- Coherence check passes: recent form supplies no clear over-only signal strong enough to overturn the xG build.
- Only 10 xG-backed matches per team; moderate samples widen the 2.95 estimate's error bar.
- New York RB regulation-time draw−100%Lost
Taken at 19¢ on Kalshi
xG Draw DeskDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG is Nashville 1.77 for/1.08 against and New York 1.65/1.39, with 10 xG matches each.
- Model lambdas are Nashville 1.77 and New York 1.28; expected total is 3.05 goals, while the draw remains materially underpriced.
- MLS has 129 draws in 489 matches (26.4%); three recent H2Hs averaged 2.0 goals with 33.3% BTTS.
- Expected XIs are not confirmed; the official status report lists Nashville with no absences and New York without Donkor, Nealis, or Justin Che.
- New York RB +2 spread+41%Won
Taken at 71¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 days - Over 3.5 total goals+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
ParallaxDown 60% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle live total 3.5 devigs to 52.7% over versus the graded Kalshi price: a still-moderate gap.
- Kalshi's matched contract is Over 3.5 goals scored, with the venue grading this leg at 50c.
- The Kalshi price moved from roughly 51.5c 30, 60 minutes earlier to 44.5c before the venue rechecks, widening rather than closing the disagreement.
- Four goals are still required from a 0-0 state; a slow match loses despite the reference gap.
- New York RB under 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed lineups were refreshed at 12:50 PM PT; both teams have four rest days, so no unverified personnel assumption drives the projection.
- The venue strongly disagrees at the same rung: over 2.5 is -270, so three or more goals loses this ticket despite the model edge.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- This is a relatively symmetric BTTS case, not a classic weak-attacker-versus-elite-defense NO: both attacks are viable, but Nashville's 1.09 home xGA lowers the away scoring read.
- Both teams' attack rates are healthy; a single New York RB goal makes the NO position lose.
Show all 10 picks
- New York RB +10%Push
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XI: Julian Hall (0.62 xG/90), Cade Cowell (0.35), and Jorge Ruvalcaba (0.32) start for New York RB.
- XI-quality coverage clears the gate: 7 known prior XIs for New York RB and 10 for Nashville SC; current XI attack-xG is 2.51 for New York RB.
- Nashville's confirmed attack remains dangerous: Sam Surridge has 0.78 xG/90, Hany Mukhtar 0.52, and Cristian Espinoza 0.15.
- New York RB @ Nashville SC under 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse expected goals total 3.05: Nashville 1.77, New York RB 1.28.
- Poisson translation of those lambdas gives approximately 63.5% for 0, 3 goals.
- The three recorded head-to-head meetings averaged only 2.0 total goals, with both teams scoring in 33.3%.
- The 63.5% figure is a Poisson translation, not a separately fitted 3.5-goal model.
- Total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX
Long Tail PairsDown 22% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- B.J. Callaghan’s Nashville profile is direct (0.77 ratio), but Michael Bradley’s New York RB profile is less direct (0.53); neither owns a major territorial mismatch.
- Pinnacle’s live context remains 3.5 goals; the thin ProphetX ladder has not repriced this lower-rung projection.
- Most likely loss: Nashville’s direct home attack converts the 1.77-goal projection into three or more goals.
- New York RB −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 7¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Same MLS 2026 sample: 489 matches, 129 draws, 107 home wins by exactly 1, 61 by exactly 2, and 55 home wins by 3+; the distribution is visibly lumpy.
- Self-reference uncertainty is material: no independent sharp quote exists at the exact -1.5 rung, so the model may be miscalibrated.
Questions
Who won New York RB vs. Nashville SC?
Nashville SC won 3-2 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.