FinalDick's Sporting Goods Park · Denver
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHIC | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| CR | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonChicago Fire spread +1.5 80¢
HandicapDown 7% this season · 642 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-6 on this game · −82% return
- Total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsEarly Whistle, Two NilWhy 2 models like it
Early Whistle- Model goal rates are Colorado 1.28 and Chicago 1.06, totaling 2.35 expected goals.
- Opponent-adjusted rates support a restrained game: Colorado 1.51 xGF/0.94 xGA; Chicago 1.57 xGF/1.18 xGA.
- Colorado goalkeeper Zack Steffen is listed injured; the expected replacement could increase home scoring.
Two Nil- Secondary tempo check is mixed: PPDA 11.45/11.24 and proxy field tilt .563/.499; rest is equal at 3 days. Band: LEAN.
- The xG-Poisson translation is only about 51.6% under 2.5, while Dixon-Coles is 58.2%; the blended 54% estimate reflects genuine model uncertainty.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- xG projection: Colorado home 1.51 xGF / 0.94 xGA and Chicago away 1.57 xGF / 1.18 xGA combine to 2.60 expected goals.
- Market threshold is 3.5 goals versus the 2.60 xG-derived expected total; Dixon-Coles under-2.5 probability is 0.58, directionally confirming the lower-goal read.
- The match is already live at 1-0 around 29'; two more goals lose, and a penalty, red card, or game-state shift can accelerate scoring.
- Chicago Fire under 2.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at +130 on BetMGM
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects 2.35 goals and 58.3% under 2.5.
- Colorado’s opponent-adjusted home xG is 1.51 for and 0.94 against.
- Chicago’s opponent-adjusted away xG is 1.57 for and 1.18 against.
- Both teams average roughly 15 shots per match in the recent sample.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Colorado's 1.51 oppadj xGF versus Chicago's 1.31 xGA implies a 75.6% home scoring probability.
- Chicago's 1.57 oppadj xGF versus Colorado's 1.01 xGA implies a 72.5% away scoring probability.
- PROJECTION edge; symmetric scoring profile, but neither side's scoring probability supports the market's 64¢ YES price.
- Both sides project above 72% to score, so one goal by each team defeats the NO position.
- Chicago Fire spread +1.5+25%Won
Taken at 80¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 days - Both teams to score−100%Lost
Taken at +165 on DraftKings
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model BTTS-No probability 52.0%; fair line approximately -108.
- Expected goals are only 1.28 Colorado and 1.06 Chicago; the model makes BTTS Yes 48.0%.
- Both starting XIs were confirmed at 5:50 PM PT; no lineup gate remains.
- Pinnacle also prices BTTS No at only +163, implying a broad market disagreement with the model.
Questions
Who won Chicago Fire vs. Colorado Rapids?
Chicago Fire won 4-2 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.