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FinalBoston Stadium · Foxborough
Inter Miami
2–1Final
New England

Top model pick, graded

Won

Total goals under 3.5 52¢

Why Two Nil likes it: Opp-adjusted xG: New England 1.43 (1.27 home xGF, 1.59 Miami xGA); Miami 1.54 (1.43 away xGF, 1.65 New England xGA).

Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-2 on this game · +35% return

  1. Total goals under 3.54 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    4 modelsTwo Nil, Early Whistle +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Two Nil
    • Opp-adjusted xG: New England 1.43 (1.27 home xGF, 1.59 Miami xGA); Miami 1.54 (1.43 away xGF, 1.65 New England xGA).
    • Raw, unadjusted xG sums to 3.26, so the under depends on trusting the opponent-adjusted correction.
    Early Whistle
    • Model rate pair is 1.45 New England and 1.69 Inter Miami, total 3.14.
    • Those rates imply approximately 61.5% for under 3.5 goals.
    • Both XIs remain expected rather than confirmed, with the latest lineup snapshot dated October 29.
    Open Play
    • Fair total 2.97 goals: opp-adjusted blends imply New England 1.43 and Inter Miami 1.54.
    • Pinnacle 3.5 is over -102 / under -112; ProphetX under is 51.22¢ at -105.
    • Only 10 xG-backed matches per team; the moderate-sample error bar is wide around a 2.97-goal estimate.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Model lambdas total 3.14 imply roughly 59% for four goals or fewer.
    • Warehouse model gives 60.8% over 2.5, leaving meaningful mass at exactly three goals.
    • The 60.8% over-2.5 signal still makes three-plus goals more likely than not.
  2. New England +1.5Favorite
    +37%Won

    Taken at 73¢ on Polymarket US

    Soccer Default PicksUp 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • New England's 10-match competitive form is 7-0-3, while Miami is 3-5-2; the matchup does not support a routine two-goal road win.
    • Polymarket US offers New England +1.5 at 73c; own estimated win probability is 82%.
    • The +1.5 probability is inferred from the match model and goal environment, not a directly published warehouse handicap probability.
  3. Under 1.5 1H goals scored
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Half LightDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1H ladder fit: quoted over tails imply Poisson mean 1.66; full ladder tail sum implies 3.57 goals.
    • Completed recent MLS sample: 35 of 94 goals arrived by minute 45, a 37.2% first-half share.
    • Applying that split to the full-ladder mean gives a reconciled 1H mean of 1.33 and P(under 1.5) of 61.7%.
    • The 37.2% split uses 29 completed recent MLS fixtures; the sample is noisy.
  4. Under 3.5 goals
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model lambdas total 3.14 imply about 61.5% for 0-3 goals; Kalshi under costs 52c.
    • Pinnacle's 3.5 total moved from over +101 to -102, directionally supporting the under; its devigged under reference is 51.1%.
    • Expected XIs were last refreshed October 29, not confirmed; late attacking or goalkeeper news could change the goal rate.
  5. Both Teams To Score NO
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: New England scoring 77.5% and Miami 81.0% gives BTTS-YES 62.8%, or NO 37.2%.
    • Symmetric both-sides-score-freely case; the NO value is a price projection, not an asymmetric low-scoring narrative.
    • Both teams have 10 xG matches: New England 1.39 xGF/1.89 xGA; Miami 1.51 xGF/1.72 xGA.
    • Expected lineups were last refreshed October 29, and late availability changes could materially move either scoring probability.
  6. Inter Miami spread no to win by more than 2.5 goalsFavorite
    +14%Won

    Taken at 88¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opp-adjusted xG inputs: New England 1.27 for / 1.65 against; Miami 1.43 for / 1.59 against, with 10 xG matches each.
    • MLS 2026 sample is lumpy: 129 draws, 186 one-goal margins, 100 two-goal margins, and only 74 absolute 3+ margins.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups dated 10/29 create late-scratch and rotation risk, especially with major personnel changes listed for both teams.
Show all 7 picks
  1. Total goals over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • TIMING. The ProphetX over moved from 49.75c at 12:59 PM to 50.98c at 3:20 PM PT across 157 captured changes.
    • Expected XIs are dated 10/29, not confirmed. Inter Miami has five listed absences; New England has three.

Questions

Who won Inter Miami vs. New England?

Inter Miami won 2-1 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.

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