Which Champions League records are real?
Aston Villa's 9 points are banked, but Bayern and Inter are better teams than their records. After three games, a club's last 12 games of xG say a little more than its points, and neither says much.
Points after three games barely track how good teams are
All 36 clubs as a table
| Club | Pts | Goals | xG for-against | Last-12 xG diff/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Paris Saint-Germain | 9 | 14-5 | 8.7-6.2 | +1.08 |
 Aston Villa | 9 | 12-3 | 8.3-3.8 | +0.23 |
 Liverpool | 9 | 12-7 | 6.7-3.4 | +0.33 |
 Real Madrid | 9 | 10-5 | 8.7-4.5 | +0.94 |
 Real Betis | 9 | 7-4 | 5.7-3.0 | +0.25 |
 VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 7-2 | 5.9-2.6 | +0.27 |
 Arsenal | 7 | 6-2 | 7.2-2.9 | +0.99 |
 Como | 6 | 10-5 | 4.2-2.6 | +0.61 |
 Barcelona | 6 | 11-6 | 7.2-3.8 | +1.78 |
 Manchester City | 6 | 9-5 | 7.6-2.7 | +0.86 |
 Sporting CP | 6 | 7-4 | 6.0-4.3 | +0.80 |
 Club Brugge | 6 | 9-6 | 7.8-8.2 | +0.89 |
 Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 5-4 | 6.9-3.6 | +0.73 |
 Bayern Munich | 5 | 10-5 | 8.2-3.1 | +2.22 |
 Roma | 4 | 8-5 | 5.8-3.2 | +0.81 |
 Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 4-3 | 2.8-2.6 | +0.41 |
 Atlético Madrid | 4 | 4-3 | 2.8-3.8 | +0.24 |
 PSV | 4 | 2-2 | 4.0-4.3 | +0.74 |
 Villarreal | 3 | 8-8 | 4.3-7.3 | +0.30 |
 Inter | 3 | 5-6 | 7.2-8.2 | +1.36 |
 Manchester United | 3 | 5-6 | 5.0-3.3 | +0.13 |
 Napoli | 3 | 5-7 | 4.2-7.5 | +0.16 |
 Galatasaray | 3 | 6-9 | 3.3-5.4 | +0.64 |
 Sabah | 3 | 3-6 | 3.0-9.7 | -0.47 |
 LASK | 3 | 6-9 | 3.5-7.9 | +0.54 |
 Feyenoord | 3 | 4-8 | 2.3-5.4 | +0.76 |
 Lens | 3 | 3-7 | 5.1-5.8 | +0.04 |
 AEK Athens | 3 | 3-8 | 3.3-4.5 | +0.53 |
 Bodø/Glimt | 3 | 4-9 | 3.9-4.9 | +1.13 |
 RB Leipzig | 3 | 3-8 | 4.4-6.5 | +0.46 |
 Fenerbahçe | 2 | 3-9 | 3.9-4.9 | +0.60 |
 Slavia Prague | 1 | 4-7 | 6.1-3.7 | +0.80 |
 Viking | 1 | 5-9 | 2.4-8.6 | +0.24 |
 Porto | 0 | 2-6 | 3.1-6.3 | +0.81 |
 Lille | 0 | 4-10 | 2.9-5.2 | -0.36 |
 Slovan Bratislava | 0 | 1-13 | 1.7-10.3 | -1.51 |
Bayern have the best underlying numbers of any Champions League club and sit 14th on 5 points. We measure that with xG, or expected goals: how many goals a team's chances would produce for an average finisher. Over their last 12 games, Bayern lead all 36 clubs on xG difference, with Barcelona (6 points) and Inter (3) next.
Aston Villa are the opposite: 9 points from three games, but 18th of 20 in the Premier League on xG difference. (The 36-club ranking is not adjusted for league strength, which is why we lead with the league comparison.)
Three games of points barely predict the next five
We checked the last two league phases (72 club seasons). Points after matchday 3 explained little of matchdays 4 to 8. A club's xG difference over its previous 12 games did a little better.
Two slow starts recovered, two fast starts faded, two held
- Correlation with matchday 4-8 points: 0.34 for matchday 1-3 points, 0.34 for matchday 1-3 xG difference, 0.43 for the 12-game xG difference.
- The seven clubs that started 9 of 9 averaged 9.0 points over the last five games. The average club got 7.2.
- Small sample: 72 club seasons. In resamples the 12-game number beat banked points about 83% of the time, a real but modest edge.
Villa's Europe looks nothing like Villa's Premier League
Every English club has a better xG difference in the Champions League than in the Premier League so far. Villa's gap is nearly three times anyone else's.
Villa are -0.65 a game in the Premier League and +1.50 in Europe
- The schedule: Villa won 3-2 at Club Brugge, then beat Fenerbahçe 6-0 and Viking 3-1 at home. Barcelona (Tuesday), PSG and Dortmund are still to come.
- The defense: Villa have allowed 16.4 xG in nine Premier League games, second most behind Crystal Palace (20.5).
- Availability: Amadou Onana, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Matteo Ruggeri are listed out.
- The case for Villa: they are 7-3-2 in their last 12 games and beat Manchester City 2-1 on Oct. 24.
- Tuesday: prediction markets give Barcelona about 78%, a draw 12% and Villa 10% (Kalshi and Polymarket US, prices as of Nov. 1).
Bayern are the best team in the competition on 5 points
- Bayern beat Bodø/Glimt 5-0, then drew 3-3 at Viking while out-creating them 3.55 xG to 1.01, finishing with 10 men after Michael Olise's second yellow.
- The 2-2 with Arsenal was close on chances: 2.26 xG to 1.69.
- Luis Díaz (torn muscle) is listed out for Tuesday, and Manuel Neuer (foot) is not expected back until Nov. 4. Atlético are without Koke.
- Prediction markets (Nov. 1): Bayern 41%, Atlético 34%, draw 24%.
Precedent: Bayern had 3 points after three games in 2024-25 and took 12 of the next 15.
Inter's attack is real. Their defense is the problem.
- Inter lost 2-1 at Real Madrid (3.77 xG against) and 4-3 at home to Club Brugge despite 4.14 xG of their own. They have since beaten Shakhtar 1-0.
- Their 8.2 xG conceded in Europe is the 5th most of 36 clubs, just behind Brugge.
- Lautaro Martínez (hamstring, expected back Nov. 10), Benjamin Pavard and Luis Henrique are listed out at Feyenoord.
- Prediction markets (Nov. 1) make Inter a 53% favorite at Feyenoord.
Como and PSG are scoring far above their chances
Goals minus xG over three games is mostly noise, and it swings both ways. It is the first thing to fade.
Como and PSG have scored the most above their chances
ComoPSGLiverpoolBarcelonaVillaVillarrealGalatasarayVikingLASKRomaBayernFeyenoordMan CityReal MadridBetisClub BruggeShakhtarAtléticoStuttgartLilleSportingNapoliBodø/GlimtMan UnitedSabahAEKSlovanFenerbahçePortoArsenalLeipzigDortmundPSVLensSlaviaInter- Como: 10 goals from 4.2 xG, including 4-1 wins over RB Leipzig and Manchester United. Over 12 games they are 18th at +0.61 a game. At Lens on Wednesday.
- PSG: 14 goals from 8.7 xG. They won 4-2 at Manchester City while trailing on xG, 1.96 to 3.15. At Villarreal on Tuesday.
- Club Brugge: 6 points but more xG conceded (8.2) than created (7.8). At PSV on Wednesday.
The coaches see the same thing the numbers do
- Vincent Kompany to Bayern's club website after the 3-3 at Viking on Oct. 13, via FotMob: "At the moment, it feels like every chance for the opponents leads to a goal."
- Unai Emery to ESPN (Oct. 21), on Villa's home form: "In the Premier League we are still not winning". Three days later Villa beat Manchester City 2-1 at home.
- Goal's Khaled Mahmoud on Inter 3-4 Brugge (Oct. 13) gave Cristian Chivu 3/10: "his side showed zero defensive coherence."
What the data adds: Kompany is right that Bayern are conceding goals from few chances (5 from 3.1 xG), and over 12 games they are the best side in the field. Villa's European numbers came against Brugge, Fenerbahçe and Viking. xG figures differ by provider; ours come from Sportmonks.
Bayern and Barcelona should take the most points from here
Banked points still count. Villa project around 17 points and PSG around 18, above the 16 that finished 8th (the last automatic last-16 spot) in each of the last two seasons. With a typical miss of 3.4 points, neither is safe.
Bayern and Barcelona project best, but every band overlaps
Bayern5 pts nowBarcelona6 pts nowPSG9 pts nowInter3 pts nowAston Villa9 pts nowComo6 pts nowAtlético4 pts nowQuestions people ask
Are Aston Villa good enough to win the Champions League?
Not on their underlying numbers so far. Villa have 9 points from three games but are 18th of 20 in the Premier League on xG difference (-5.9). Their 9 points still make a top-8 finish realistic: they project to about 17, and 16 was enough for 8th in each of the last two seasons.
Why are Bayern Munich only 14th in the Champions League?
Two draws: 3-3 at Viking with 10 men and 2-2 with Arsenal. Bayern have the competition's best xG difference (+5.1) and the best over their last 12 games (+2.22 a game).
How many points do you need to finish top 8 in the Champions League league phase?
About 16. The 8th-placed club finished on 16 points in both 2024-25 and 2025-26.
Who is the best team in the Champions League right now?
By xG difference over the last 12 games in all competitions, Bayern Munich (+2.22 a game), then Barcelona (+1.78) and Inter (+1.36). PSG, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Real Madrid and Real Betis lead the table on 9 points.
How we did this: Snapp's soccer warehouse (Sportmonks xG), Champions League league-phase games through matchday 3 (Oct. 21, 2026) and club games in all competitions through Nov. 1, 2026. Last-12 xG difference: xG for minus xG against per game over each club's last 12 games in all competitions, not adjusted for league strength (Slavia Prague, Sabah and Slovan Bratislava have fewer than 12 games with xG). History test and projection: 72 club seasons from the 2024-25 and 2025-26 league phases; matchday 4-8 points regressed on matchday 1-3 points and the 12-game xG difference before matchday 4 (R² 0.20, typical miss ±3.4 points). Injuries from the warehouse's team-news lists for the Nov. 3-4 fixtures (observed Oct. 27, rechecked Nov. 1); players listed out who have since played are left out. Haaland and Raphinha figures are club games in 2026-27 only. Prediction-market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket US on Nov. 1.