FinalSeattle Stadium · Seattle
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SK | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SEAT | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals over 3.5 49¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Projection; opp-adjusted xG gives Seattle 1.48 and Sporting KC 1.29, for a 2.77-goal expectation.
Two NilUp 1% return this season · 587 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-2 on this game · +3% return
- Total goals over 3.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 2% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection; opp-adjusted xG gives Seattle 1.48 and Sporting KC 1.29, for a 2.77-goal expectation.
- Tempo is not a bullish over signal: PPDA is 14.17 Seattle and 15.73 Sporting KC; both sides have five rest days.
- A fast early goal, penalty, or red card can break a low-total script despite the 2.77 expectation.
- Total goals under 3.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsDown 3% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; confirmed Seattle XI attacking xG is 1.63 versus the usual-XI benchmark of 2.70 (−1.07).
- Paul Rothrock, a 10-start regular, is absent from the XI; his form shows 0.22 xG/90 and 0.11 big chances created/90.
- Sporting's confirmed XI is closer to baseline: 2.40 attacking xG versus 2.63 usual-XI benchmark.
- Most likely loss: an early Seattle goal creates an open transition match and a four-goal finish.
- Sporting KC @ Seattle Sounders under 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsDown 4% last 30 days - Match total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookDown 5% last 30 days
Questions
Who won Sporting KC vs. Seattle Sounders?
Seattle Sounders won 2-1 on Thursday, Oct 1, 2026.