Heat vs. MagicFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalKia Center · Orlando
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 36 | 29 | 30 | 20 | 115 |
| ORL | 34 | 36 | 38 | 28 | 136 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 240.5 points 59¢
Why Shot Clock likes it: Miami's 110.5 pace versus Orlando's 104.9; both pace_l10_delta values are 0.0, so Miami's higher tempo is the likely dictator; 59 first-quarter points corroborate.
Shot ClockUp 1% return this season · 238 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-1 on this game · +26% return
- Miami Heat +7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Spoelstra brings an 830-611 career record and 12-plus years of Heat-system continuity against Sweeney's 28-29 head-coaching record.
- Orlando's recent preseason net ratings swung from -13.1 to +14.7, making a seven-point favorite vulnerable to rotation volatility.
- Polymarket US prices Heat +7.5 at 49¢, a modest price for the experienced-coach side.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo are ruled out, removing Miami's largest matchup and defensive advantages.
- Game total over 240.5 points+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Miami's 110.5 pace versus Orlando's 104.9; both pace_l10_delta values are 0.0, so Miami's higher tempo is the likely dictator; 59 first-quarter points corroborate.
- Miami offense 119.0 versus Orlando defense 112.4; Orlando offense 114.3 versus Miami defense 108.1; pace-times-efficiency estimate is 244.4 points.
- The 240.5 rung is 3.9 points below projection; own over probability 61% versus the 59¢ graded price, with no sharp same-rung reference.
- Only four Miami and three Orlando preseason games inform the pace and efficiency rates; the sample is highly noisy.
- Game over 234.5 total+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Miami's 110.5 pace is 5.6 possessions above Orlando's 104.9; Miami is the likely tempo setter.
- Both teams' pace_l10_delta are 0.0, so the read is a stable style mismatch, not a claimed recent surge.
- Miami 119.0 ORTG versus Orlando 112.4 DRTG; Orlando 114.3 ORTG versus Miami 108.1 DRTG.
- Bam Adebayo is out; Nikola Vucevic is day-to-day and official starters are not confirmed, so efficiency inputs can move.
- Orlando Magic to win+41%Won
Taken at 71¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Miami's Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo are both ruled out for this preseason game.
- Orlando's recent 2026 preseason profile is positive: 2-1 with wins by 16 and 4 points before tonight.
- Orlando adds home court and Nikola Vučević, while Miami loses its two largest frontcourt anchors.
- The market already moved after the confirmed absences; my estimated edge is only about 2 percentage points.
Questions
Who won Heat vs. Magic?
The Magic won 136–115 on Friday, Oct 16, 2026.