Get app

Celtics vs. PistonsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalLittle Caesars Arena · Detroit
Celtics
113–121Final
Pistons
Score by period
Team1234T
BOS28303025113
DET27183739121

Top model pick, graded

Won

Detroit Pistons −2.5 43¢

Why Power Gap likes it: Blended prior regular-season net ratings project Detroit about +2.5 at home: Detroit 10.0 versus Boston 9.5, plus 2.0 home court.

Power GapUp 11% return this season · 67 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 14-7 on this game · +39% return

  1. Boston Celtics to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, Crowd Echo +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Power rating 55.5% Boston: current four-game efficiency is 113.3 ORtg, 96.12 DRtg, +17.15 net versus Detroit's 110.9, 105.4, +5.47.
    • The +11.68 current net-rating gap is conservatively haircut for the early-season sample and Boston's offseason turnover; both teams have two rest days and no back-to-back.
    • Most likely loss: Detroit's home court and Boston's new-look roster overcome the efficiency gap.
    Crowd Echo
    • Pinnacle-based devig reference is 52.4% for Boston; the model is 4.1 points higher.
    • The model discounts a tiny four-game sample: Boston's preseason net rating is +17.15 versus Detroit's +5.48.
    Tempo Dictator
    • Boston was the NBA's slowest 2025 regular-season team at 98.32 possessions; Detroit averaged 103.10, just 0.60 from the 102.50 mean.
    • Boston's win pace was 98.23 versus 98.52 in losses; it went 56-26 overall and 25-15 against mean-style opponents.
    • The Celtics' win/loss pace separation is only 0.29 possessions; the mechanism signal may be noise.
  2. Game total over 220.5 points2 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsPrice Cap, Shot Clock
    Why 2 models like it
    Price Cap
    • Model mean is about 225 points from last-season pace and efficiency: Boston 98.3 pace/116.9 ORtg, Detroit 103.1/114.4.
    • Both teams have four days since their latest listed game, avoiding a rest-based pace downgrade.
    • There are no regular-season games yet; the estimate relies mainly on 2025 full-season ratings and pace.
    Shot Clock
    • Blended pace-efficiency projection is 229.0 points, 8.5 above the same-rung 220.5 market.
    • Boston’s 112.3 pace versus Detroit’s 107.4 suggests Boston nominally dictates tempo by 4.9 possessions.
    • Only four 2026 preseason games make the pace and efficiency samples fragile.
  3. Detroit Pistons to win2 models agree
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsTempo Boss, Old Prior
    Why 2 models like it
    Tempo Boss
    • Detroit averaged 103.1 possessions in 2025-26 versus Boston's 98.3, a 4.8-possession tempo gap.
    • Detroit's transition offense used 19.3% of possessions versus Boston's 15.0%, supporting Detroit as the pace controller.
    • Detroit won at 102.8 possessions last season but lost at 103.8; faster pace alone was not a reliable win signal.
    Old Prior
    • Detroit's last-season home net rating was +10.29, while Boston's visitor net rating was +7.81.
    • The market makes Boston the 53.0% moneyline side despite Detroit's home-strength baseline.
    • Boston's roster change includes Paul George and Mitchell Robinson, while Jaylen Brown's departure could be less damaging than estimated.
  4. Cade Cunningham over 8.5 assists
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −122 on DraftKings

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9.91 regular-season assists per game in the 2025-26 sample, 1.41 above this line.
    • Detroit averaged 103.1 possessions; the Boston-Detroit pace blend remains near 100.7 despite Boston's slower profile.
    • Over is the market consensus: Pinnacle -140 and DraftKings -122, with no clear sharp opposition in the current board.
    • Season opener: the projection relies on last-season baselines, not 2026-27 game form.
  5. Detroit Pistons −2.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Novig

    Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blended prior regular-season net ratings project Detroit about +2.5 at home: Detroit 10.0 versus Boston 9.5, plus 2.0 home court.
    • Last-10 net ratings were Detroit +12.07 and Boston +11.21, supporting a near-even baseline rather than a Boston advantage.
    • No top-three player is listed questionable in the current injury report; only Devin Carter and Taurean Prince are listed out.
    • The model uses prior regular-season ratings because current preseason rotations are not reliable; offseason roster changes add uncertainty.
  6. Paul George over 16.5 points
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Novig

    Shaded PropUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Paul George is a confirmed starter; his last-10 scoring median was 20.5 points.
    • Last-10 starter minutes median was 31.9 and scoring-rate median was 0.62 points/minute, projecting roughly 19.7 points at 32 minutes.
    • No official minutes projection was published; his Boston role is new after last season in Philadelphia.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Detroit Pistons spread +1.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Home Dog HoldUp 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2025 net ratings were nearly even: Detroit +7.99, Boston +7.89; adding 2.25 home court gives Detroit about a +2.35 margin.
    • Gate cleared: both teams last played October 16, so Detroit has no rest disadvantage; no Detroit top-two player is ruled out.
    • Final inactives are not set 150 minutes before tip; a late top-player scratch could reverse the estimate.
  2. John Collins over 10 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    Shaded OverDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Collins reached 10+ points in 8 of his last 10 games, starting all 10; average was 21.1 minutes.
    • The 10+/15+/20+ Kalshi ladder is monotone at 60%/32%/12%, summing to coherent exclusive buckets.
    • FanDuel independently lists Collins over 11.5 points at -125, cross-checking the active role and price neighborhood.
    • The recent sample is only 10 games and includes four preseason appearances; regular-season rotation minutes could change.
  3. Game total over 230.5 pointsLong shot
    +257%Won

    Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi

    Split ShiftDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Shrunk Boston road offense is 115.35 ORtg with 99.49 pace; Detroit home is 114.25 ORtg with 101.95 pace.
    • Blended pace 100.72 produces a 231.3-point expected total.
    • The split-adjusted total is 10.8 points above the 220.5 sharp-book main line.
    • Tip is five hours away; late rotation news or a top-player scratch could materially change the estimate.
  4. Boston Celtics spread +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Ladder SeamDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • point NBA margin model centered on the ML quote puts Boston +2.5 near 61.5%; the rung is modestly cheap at its own venue.
    • The +1.5 to +3.5 Boston-cover segment is monotone and the +2.5 quote survived the 10:49 AM PT ladder refresh.
    • Boston loses by 3 or more, the single most likely failure mode for this ticket.
  5. Under 223 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Sharp DriftDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle moved from 222.5 at open to 221.0 current, a 1.5-point drop.
    • ProphetX's 223 rung is 2 points above the sharp current total, preserving the stale-number advantage.
    • Pinnacle partially reversed from 220.0 to 221.0; the initial under move may be exhausted.
  6. Detroit Pistons game winner
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    October PriorDown 40% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi moved toward Boston from 51.5% to 52.5% since opening; Boston's better L5 form appears priced as an early-season overreaction.
    • Last season net ratings were virtually even: Detroit +7.99 versus Boston +7.89; Detroit has home court.
    • Roster changes favor a cautious Boston downgrade after losing Jaylen Brown, Nikola Vucevic and Anfernee Simons; Detroit added John Collins.
    • Boston's L5 margin is +0.4 versus Detroit's -6.0, so fading the recent-form move may simply be wrong.
  7. Jayson Tatum under 27.5 points
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L10 prior-season regular-game average: 22.4 points in 34.5 minutes.
    • Tatum stayed under 27.5 in 9 of 10 comparable regular-season games; no pushes.
    • Boston's probable starting five is verified, with Tatum active and Brown no longer on this roster.
    • Only 10 games form a thin sample, and the window ended in April rather than this season.
  8. Jalen Duren over 16.5 points
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2025 regular season: 17.92 points per game and over 16.5 in 47 of 77 games (61.0%).
    • Duren is confirmed active by the live participant feed and reported as Detroit's starting center.
    • Base estimate 57.0%; conservative stress estimate 53.5%, preserving roughly a 5.7-point edge.
    • Against Boston last season, Duren cleared 16.5 in only 2 of 4 meetings (18, 6, 12, 24 points).
  9. Jayson Tatum under 41.5 points + rebounds + assists
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 41.5 line vs 32.5 average PRA in Tatum's two active preseason games: 21.7% below.
    • Detroit's 105.4 preseason defensive rating ranked seventh-lowest among 30 teams.
    • Tatum is active and listed as a probable starter, but his current form has stayed well below this all-around threshold.
    • The sample is only two active games, and his 28.1 preseason minutes may increase in the opener.
  10. Cade Cunningham under 38.5 points + rebounds + assists
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 38.5 line vs 21.3 average PRA across three active preseason games: 44.6% below.
    • Boston posted the NBA's lowest preseason defensive rating: 96.12 over four games.
    • Cunningham is active and listed as a probable starter; Boston's defense directly targets his primary-creator workload.
    • Only three active-game observations; regular-season minutes could rise materially.
  11. Over 219.5 total points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • opponent-adjusted pace/efficiency blend projects approximately 225 total points, 5.5 above this rung.
    • Weighted prior-season last-10 paces are Boston 98.3 and Detroit 101.7; matchup expectation is about 100.5 possessions.
    • Adjusted last-10/season offense and defense produce a 224, 225 projection; this is a LEAN because current regular-season data are insufficient.
    • Zero current-season regular games means a prior-season blend is required; projection uncertainty is materially wider than normal.

Questions

Who won Celtics vs. Pistons?

The Pistons won 121-113 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.