Get app

Grizzlies vs. WarriorsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalChase Center · San Francisco
Grizzlies
111–108Final
Warriors
Score by period
Team1234T
MEM33272427111
GSW34223418108

Top model pick, graded

Won

Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 50¢

Why Power Gap likes it: Current regular-season net ratings are Memphis +19.0 and Golden State -21.0; blending each 50/50 with 2025-26 season net ratings gives a +17.4 Memphis differential before home court.

Power GapUp 12% return this season · 66 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 23-2 on this game · +87% return

  1. Game total under 235.53 models agree
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Novig

    3 modelsFirst Month, Price Cap +1
    Why 3 models like it
    First Month
    • Last-season pace: Memphis 104.5, Golden State 102.4; rating blend projects roughly 233 total points.
    • Memphis added larger frontcourt minutes through Isaiah Stewart and Kris Murray; that supports a more half-court rotation than the market's pace baseline.
    • Both teams played at 104.9-plus possessions in their openers, though this is a one-game sample the brief treats as noise.
    Price Cap
    • Blended pace/efficiency estimate centers the game around 227 total points.
    • Current-season inputs: GSW 104.9 pace/100.1 offense, MEM 105.3 pace/116.8 offense; last-season ratings are blended for the one-game sample.
    • Both teams have only one regular-season game of current-season data, so the efficiency estimate is sample-sensitive.
    Cheap Side
    • Current regular-season pace is Memphis 105.3 and Golden State 104.9; opponent-adjusted scoring projects roughly 229 points.
    • Last-10 pace blend is 102.2 possessions with combined scoring efficiency near 2.20 points per possession.
    • Only one 2026 regular-season game per team; most last-10 observations come from the prior season and different rosters.
  2. Memphis Grizzlies +4.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    2 modelsPower Gap, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Power Gap
    • Current regular-season net ratings are Memphis +19.0 and Golden State -21.0; blending each 50/50 with 2025-26 season net ratings gives a +17.4 Memphis differential before home court.
    • Equal five-day rest produces no rest penalty; Memphis' projected +4.5 cover probability remains 88% after discounting early-season and lineup uncertainty.
    • Both teams have only one regular-season game of current-form data, so the rating blend is highly sample-sensitive.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Memphis is +9.4 points per game over its last five; Golden State is essentially even.
    • Memphis owns a +9.0 average net rating across the recent five-game sample versus Golden State's +0.1.
    • The recent sample is only five games and early-season roster continuity is thin.
  3. Memphis Grizzlies to win2 models agree
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsLate Scratch Ledger, Shootaround Whisper
    Why 2 models like it
    Late Scratch Ledger
    • GSW's 2025 regular-season net rating was +5.22 with Jimmy Butler and -5.84 without him, an 11.1-point/100-possession gap across 39/43 games.
    • GSW's 5:30 PM confirmed lineup has Butler, Moody, Porzingis and Bassey out; Memphis is the final-list side favored by the late scratch.
    • Memphis's Isaiah Stewart remained questionable at 5:15 PM and its starting five was still only projected; an absence would thin the frontcourt.
    Shootaround Whisper
    • TIMING edge: the 10:45 AM official report still lists Brandin Podziemski questionable with bilateral low-back soreness.
    • Podziemski missed Wednesday's opener after a Q-to-out progression; the current report explicitly flags risk of a second consecutive absence.
    • Most likely loss: Podziemski clears and plays normal minutes, restoring Golden State's projected starting backcourt.
  4. Stephen Curry under 25.5 points2 models agree
    +90%Won

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    2 modelsTHE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM, Next Man Priced
    Why 2 models like it
    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
    • Grade B: Curry is a confirmed starter; current participation is resolved.
    • 14.67 current-season points per game across 6 played games, with 18.58 minutes per game.
    • Six-game sample is thin and early-season minutes may not represent the stable rotation.
    Next Man Priced
    • Jimmy Butler III is officially out; in 10 Butler-absent games, Curry averaged 22.5 points, 15.8 FGA and 27.68 minutes versus 27.79 points, 19.42 FGA and 31.88 minutes with Butler.
    • Curry averaged 20.8 points and 14.0 FGA in his latest five eligible regular-season games; he stayed under 25.5 in four.
    • The Butler-absent sample is only 10 games and spans a materially changed Warriors roster; it is not a validated current-season forecast.
  5. Game total under 235.5 points
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blended projection is roughly 231, 232 points, 3.5, 4.5 below the 235.5 center rung.
    • Last-season pace averaged 102.4 (GSW) and 104.5 (MEM); neither team paired elite offense with this total.
    • Last-season offensive ratings were 112.0 GSW and 109.8 MEM, while defenses allowed 112.6 and 115.6.
    • Both teams played at roughly 105 possessions in their first game, above last-season GSW pace.
  6. Brandin Podziemski over 14.5 points
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Novig

    Vacuum PointsUp 64% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jimmy Butler is confirmed out; Podziemski's Butler-out split adds 3.1 FGA and 3.2 points per game.
    • Across 44 Butler-out games, Podziemski averaged 15.23 points and cleared 14.5 in 22 (50.0%).
    • Podziemski is a confirmed starter; his 2025 baseline was 17.49 points per 36 minutes.
    • The historical hit rate is only 50%, so the fair estimate has meaningful sampling variance.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Brandin Podziemski over 1.5 three-pointers made
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Novig

    Deep RangeUp 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • last-10 rate is 7.293 three-point attempts per 36.
    • Memphis allowed 1.046x the 2025 league opponent 3PA rate; game pace projects 1.023x league.
    • Confirmed starter; Moody-out usage data adds 3.926 minutes and 1.752 FGA per game for Podziemski.
    • Confirmed starter does not guarantee 31 minutes; foul trouble or an early blowout can cut opportunity.
  2. under 237.5 total
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Stiff Line PairDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 233.5 projected total, 4.0 points below the 237.5 rung; cashing likelihood 55% versus 51.22¢ price.
    • Pace is not the issue: Golden State is at 104.9 possessions and Memphis 105.3; the remaining lineup lacks Butler's scoring efficiency and creation.
    • ProphetX has held 237.5 from its opening read, while sportsbook totals moved up from 234.5 to 236.5; SHARP REFERENCE is Pinnacle 238 under -113.
    • Stephen Curry shotmaking plus a roughly 105-possession game can push this into the 240s.
  3. Memphis Grizzlies spread +4.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Sharp Wallet DogDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Golden State lists Butler, Moody, Porzingis and Bassey out; Memphis projects its core, with only Stewart questionable.
    • Both starting groups are projected, not confirmed; Podziemski is only probable and Stewart remains questionable.
  4. Stephen Curry under 4.5 threes
    +59%Won

    Taken at −170 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Grade B: Curry's starting participation is confirmed by the live NBA lineup feed.
    • Curry averages 2.50 made threes across 6 current-season played games.
    • FanDuel -170 is playable against an 82% own win estimate.
    • The exact-stat sample is only 6 games, so 100% observed unders are not a calibrated long-run rate.
  5. Gui Santos under 11.5 points
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 average is 10.2 points, 11.3% below the 11.5 projection.
    • Confirmed starter with 23.02 L5 minutes, but only 10.2 points per game.
    • Memphis's early 97.8 defensive rating supports fading a marginal scoring over.
    • The 11.3% form gap barely clears the brief's threshold and variance dominates.
  6. Draymond Green under 7.5 points
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 average is 3.4 points, 54.7% below the 7.5 projection.
    • Confirmed starter, but his L5 role produces 6.6 assists against only 3.4 points.
    • Memphis posted a 97.8 defensive rating in its only regular-season game.
    • Five games is a small early-season sample, and Memphis's defensive rating is one-game data.
  7. Golden State Warriors to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
  8. Game under 241.5 total
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: 229.0 points from 105.1 blended pace and matchup efficiency, 12.5 below Kalshi's 241.5 rung.
    • Tempo dictator: neither; Memphis pace 105.3 and Golden State 104.9, both matching their one-game L10 baselines.
    • Memphis offense/Warriors defense blend is 119.0; Warriors offense/Memphis defense blend is 99.0, or 217.9 combined per 100.
    • Only one 2026 regular-season game per team supplies the pace and efficiency sample; outcome variance is wide.
  9. Game under 233.5 total
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: 229.1 points from 105.1 possessions and blended current-season efficiencies.
    • Memphis marginally dictates tempo: 105.3 pace versus Golden State 104.9; both pace_l10_delta values are 0.0, so there is no meaningful pace surge.
    • Golden State offense 100.1 versus Memphis defense 97.8 projects about 104.0 points; Memphis offense 116.8 versus Golden State defense 121.1 projects about 125.1.
    • Isaiah Stewart remains Questionable with an ankle injury; the expected lineup is not confirmed, so this is capped at LEAN.
  10. Game total under 236.5
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Memphis's last-five game totals average 227.8, 8.7 points below this number.
    • Golden State's last-five game totals average 225.2, 11.3 points below 236.5.
    • Recent team possessions average about 104 per game for both sides, not an extreme pace environment.
    • Five-game early-season samples are noisy and opponent quality is not fully adjusted here.
  11. Game total under 231.5
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

    Split ShiftDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Gate cleared: the 230.7 split-adjusted projection is 6.3 points below Pinnacle's 237.0 main line.
    • Golden State's last 25 home games: 115.4 ORtg and 101.5 possessions, each shrunk halfway toward league average.
    • Memphis's last 25 road games: 108.2 ORtg and 105.2 possessions, each shrunk halfway toward league average.
    • The 25-game venue samples are from last season; current-season form is only one game and projected rotations are not confirmed.
  12. Game total over 253.5 pointsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi

    Tail TotalDown 106% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2025 pace profiles combine to 206.9 possessions, above the 205-possession comparison filter.
    • Far-tail structure captures overtime, three-point variance, and blowout scoring volatility.
    • Baseline scoring projection is about 233, roughly five points below the 237.5 center rung.
  13. Memphis Grizzlies under 238 total
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • weighted pace estimate is about 102 possessions, with adjusted scoring projection near 233.5 points.
    • Last-10/season blend points to roughly 4.5 points of cushion below the 238 rung; both teams have five rest days, not a pace-up back-to-back.
    • sportsbook board centers near 237-237.5, while the model still leaves the under modest room; cashing likelihood apart from price quality is 56.5%.
    • Only one current-season game per team, so the required prior-season blend caps this at a LEAN rather than a recommendation.
  14. Game total under 237.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Market: Polymarket US under 237.5 costs 52c; the full 37-rung total ladder was read at 5:46:55 PM PDT.
    • The total moved from 234.5/235.5 to 237.5/238.0 at major books, creating a contrarian price cushion for the under.
    • Model estimate: 56% true probability; fair decimal odds 1.79 versus the 1.92 nominal payout at 52c.
    • Memphis starters remain expected rather than confirmed, and Isaiah Stewart is questionable; his status can move the pace and defensive estimate.

Questions

Who won Grizzlies vs. Warriors?

The Grizzlies won 111–108 on Friday, Oct 23, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.