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Pistons vs. KnicksFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMadison Square Garden · New York
Pistons
97–111Final
Knicks
Score by period
Team1234T
DET3812133497
NYK25263723111

Top model pick, graded

Won

New York Knicks −5.5 46¢

Why Home Fort likes it: New York is a home favorite at -5.5, inside the brief’s 3.5-to-9-point band.

Home FortNew · 9 graded so far
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How the picks did

Models went 9-5 on this game · +29% return

  1. Detroit Pistons +4.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Novig

    3 modelsPower Gap, Sharp Wallet Dog +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Power Gap
    • Current-season net: Detroit +12.3, New York -6.1; three-game last-10 equals season sample.
    • Prior-season net: Detroit +8.0, New York +6.4; blended team differential is about +10 for Detroit.
    • Current form is only three games; the apparent rating gap may regress sharply.
    Sharp Wallet Dog
    • Detroit’s first three games average +12.7 points; New York’s average -6.3, a noisy but substantial early-form signal.
    • Model: 56.5% cover. Pinnacle’s same-rung +4.5/-4.5 prices (-113/+100) devig to about 51.5%; main spread is -4.0.
    • The model leans heavily on only three games per team; the form gap can regress sharply.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Detroit is 3-0 with a +12.3 net rating through three games; New York is 0-3 at -6.1.
    • Recent scoring margins: Pistons +12.7 per game, Knicks -6.3 across their first three.
    • Only three games inform each team's current-season numbers; early-season ratings are highly noisy.
  2. New York Knicks −5.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Novig

    Home FortUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • New York is a home favorite at -5.5, inside the brief’s 3.5-to-9-point band.
    • Detroit’s Jalen Duren is out; last season he averaged 16.7 PPG and was the Pistons’ second-leading scorer.
    • No rest advantage: both teams last played October 25 and had two rest days.
  3. Total points under 220
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Short BenchUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season pace over 3 games: Detroit 103.0, New York 103.2 possessions. Their similarly slow pace is the clearest schedule-factor support for the under.
    • Prior-game rotation: Detroit used 8 players at 15+ minutes, New York 7; both had 5 players at 25+ minutes. This is a modest, mixed signal, not a rest differential.
    • Neither team is on a back-to-back and both have the same one rest day; there is no rest advantage supporting the position.
  4. Under 220.5 total points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
  5. Game total under 219.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 216.9-point estimate from each team's offense blended with its opponent's points allowed; 2.6 below 219.5.
    • Both defenses have limited early scoring: Knicks 104.9 defensive rating, Detroit 102.5; pace is about 103 possessions.
    • Detroit's early-season net rating is +12.3 versus New York at -6.1, supporting a more controlled game script.
    • Three-game samples are thin, and a model built from early scoring rates is unstable.
  6. Game total under 220.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Novig

    Quiet StarUp 40% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sharp main total is 219.5; captured opening was 218.5, so it rose 1 point rather than falling 2+ after the injury.
    • Jalen Duren was Detroit's second-leading scorer last regular season at 19.5 PPG in 28.23 MPG; the final NBA report lists him Out.
    • Using Duren's 0.691 points/minute and Paul Reed's 0.560, the per-minute replacement estimate implies about 3.7 points lost over Duren's minutes, before a small pace offset.
    • Reed's per-minute rate may not hold with an expanded role; the projected starters are not confirmed.
Show all 12 picks
  1. Under 217.5 total
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Plus-Money UndersUp 132% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both teams' last-10 pace rates are below the league mean: NYK 103.2 and DET 103.0 vs 104.9.
    • Pinnacle's main total is 219.5 at -106 each, two points above our selected rung.
    • Most likely loss: efficient shooting or a late foul-heavy finish pushes the combined score above 217.5.
  2. Under 220.5 points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pace is effectively even: NYK 103.2 vs DET 103.0; both pace_l10_delta values are 0.0, with no clear tempo dictator.
    • Three-game ratings imply DET offense vs NYK defense at 109.9 and NYK offense vs DET defense at 100.7 per 100 possessions.
    • At roughly 103 possessions, that efficiency read projects about 216.8 points, 3.7 below the 220.5 market total.
    • Only three games inform each current-season rating; early-season efficiency is noisy and the 216.8 estimate may be wrong.
  3. Under 218.5 points
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit 103.0 and New York 103.2 possessions; neither shows a meaningful recent-vs-season tempo shift or clear control edge.
    • Efficiency blend: Detroit offense 114.8 vs New York defense 104.9; New York offense 98.83 vs Detroit defense 102.5 projects about 216.6 points.
    • Kalshi ladder centers near 219.5; our projection is about 2.9 points lower. Edge class: PROJECTION.
    • Only three regular-season games inform current pace and efficiency; early-season team rates can shift sharply.
  4. Detroit Pistons to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    Crowd EchoUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit's first three games show +12.3 net rating versus New York's -6.1; estimate is heavily regressed toward near-even prior-season margins.
    • Only three games inform current-season ratings, so the strong early Detroit/weak New York contrast is highly noisy.
  5. Game total over 220
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • approximately 223.5 points from a pace- and opponent-adjusted blend of recent-10 and season scoring; 3.5 above 220.
    • Pinnacle's captured main total is 219; reference only, one point below this traded rung.
    • Early-season sample caps this at a LEAN: half-unit stake, not a full recommendation.
    • Only three current-season games per team; prior-season blending and the projection are uncertain.
  6. Under 219.5 total points
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Knicks scored 101.7 PPG through three games; their 98.8 offensive rating is the weaker unit.
    • New York’s three recent game totals were 206, 210, and 213, averaging 209.7.
    • Pistons averaged 103.0 possessions; a modest pace and Knicks’ current offensive output point below 219.5.
    • Detroit’s three games averaged 230.3 total points, a clear over signal against this thesis.

Questions

Who won Pistons vs. Knicks?

The Knicks won 111–97 on Tuesday, Oct 27, 2026.

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