Kings vs. SpursFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalFrost Bank Center · San Antonio
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 29 | 25 | 26 | 23 | 103 |
| SAS | 39 | 41 | 27 | 23 | 130 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSan Antonio Spurs −18.5 52¢
Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 7% return this season · 368 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-8 on this game · −47% return
- Under 232.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on Fliff
3 modelsNFL Sharp Edge, Second Unit +1Why 3 models like it
NFL Sharp Edge- Model projects about 229 points: blended ratings at roughly 105 possessions put the scoring cushion near 3.5 points.
- Season-to-date: Kings 104.6 offensive rating; Spurs allow 106.0. Spurs rate 106.1 offensively against Sacramento's 118.8 defensive rating.
- Both teams have only three regular-season games in this sample; the efficiency estimates are highly volatile.
Second Unit- Model total 228.5; market 232.5, a 4.0-point gap. Pace×efficiency projection uses current-season pace 104.4 SAC / 105.7 SAS and three regular-season games each.
- Calendar edge: Sacramento last played Oct. 25 (1 off-day); San Antonio Oct. 24 (2 off-days). Neither plays on a back-to-back tonight, based on game dates and the schedule-to-date rows.
- Projected lineups were not confirmed. Yahoo's game-day injury report lists Keegan Murray, Dylan Cardwell, Maxime Raynaud and Ben Simmons out for Sacramento, and Tobias Harris out for San Antonio; late changes remain possible.
Snapp Decision of the Day- - The teams' early-season offensive ratings (104.6 Sacramento, 106.1 San Antonio) are both well below the scoring pace implied by 232.5.
- - A simple blend of current offense and opponent defense suggests roughly 229 combined points: Kings ~111, Spurs ~118.
- - Only three games per team inform these rates; early-season shooting and opponent quality can distort them sharply.
- San Antonio Spurs −18.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket
Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days - Game total under 232.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Pace MismatchUp 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected total about 228: blended matchup pace near 104.5 with adjusted scoring efficiencies implies roughly 5 points below the 232.5 center.
- Comparable sportsbook totals rose roughly 1, 3 points from their opening captures, while this Kalshi strike stayed at 232.5, an upward move that may overstate scoring.
- Current regular-season form is only three games per team; the efficiency inputs are noisy and vulnerable to early-season variance.
- Total points under 232.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Short BenchUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Schedule: Sacramento last played Oct 25 (one rest day; not B2B); San Antonio last played Oct 24 (two rest days; not B2B), from nba_team_schedule_to_date and the Oct 27 slate.
- Pace: Sacramento 104.4, San Antonio 105.7. Prior-game starters averaged 35.8 Sacramento minutes versus 29.0 for San Antonio; each side used seven players for 15+ minutes.
- Model 228.5 is the midpoint of the teams’ early-season total_l10 figures: Sacramento 233.3 and San Antonio 224.0, each from three games.
- Only three games inform current pace, efficiency and total form; the 228.5 estimate may be noisy.
- San Antonio Spurs wins by over 18.5 points+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Report LagDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Two additional Kings listed out since the prior evening report: Raynaud (19.1 mpg) and Simmons (17.4 mpg).
- Replacement-adjusted impact estimate: roughly 2 points toward San Antonio; both absences are confirmed out, not questionable.
- Kalshi's San Antonio -18.5 probability rose about 3 points since the prior report, below 60% of an estimated roughly 6-point cover-probability shift.
- The roughly 2-point player-value estimate is uncertain; small-sample season minutes and replacement quality may misstate impact.
- Over 232.5 points NO−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; LEAN; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: expected total ~228.5 vs the 232.5-point Kalshi threshold and sportsbook total.
- Spurs slight pace dictator: 105.7 pace in season/L10 vs Sacramento 104.4; both L10 deltas are 0.0, based on only 3 regular-season games.
- Matchup efficiency: Kings 104.6 ORTG vs Spurs 106.0 DRTG; Spurs 106.1 ORTG vs Kings 118.8 DRTG. At ~105.1 possessions, projection is ~228.5.
- Only three regular-season games inform current-season pace and efficiency; early-season ratings may be noisy.
Show all 9 picks
- Sacramento Kings +18.5−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- - Season-to-date net ratings differ by 14.2 points per 100 possessions; at ~105 possessions, that implies roughly a 15-point gap before home court.
- - Sacramento's projected +18.5 cushion exceeds that rough rating-based margin by about 3.5 points.
- - The Kings' 3-game sample is poor (0-3, -14.1 net rating), but still prices near a much larger handicap than the rating gap alone suggests.
- - Sacramento's three-game sample is extremely thin, and its listed starting lineup remains expected rather than confirmed.
- San Antonio Spurs −17.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Look-Ahead PairsUp 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- San Antonio last played Oct. 24; Sacramento played Oct. 25, verified from current-season game logs.
- Spurs have an extra recovery day; their -17.5 opening spread has not moved in the direction of this read.
- Estimated cover likelihood is 53%, a modest schedule angle, not a claim that the market price is obviously wrong.
- Only three current-season games per team; early-season form and rest effects are noisy.
- Game total under 228.5−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi
Split ShiftDown 43% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Split-adjusted estimate: 228.6 points, about 3.4 below Pinnacle's 232.0 main total; BetOnline is 232.5.
- Shrunk 50% toward league average: Spurs home 115.15 ORtg/100 and 102.25 pace; Kings road 109.85 and 100.91.
- The estimate is barely beyond the brief's 3-point trigger and is nearly centered on the 228.5 rung; a small model error erases much of the edge.
Questions
Who won Kings vs. Spurs?
The Spurs won 130–103 on Tuesday, Oct 27, 2026.