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Pelicans vs. JazzFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalDelta Center · Salt Lake City
Pelicans
119–120Final
Jazz
Score by period
Team1234T
NOP28243829119
UTA31312434120

Top model pick, graded

Won

New Orleans Pelicans spread +1.5 52¢

Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 7% return this season · 368 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 12-6 on this game · +26% return

  1. New Orleans Pelicans to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsTempo Boss, Short Bench +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Tempo Boss
    • Pelicans controlled pace better against slow opponents: 98.9 possessions, -4.85 from season pace, versus Utah's 99.26 and -6.45.
    • Pelicans' 105.5/102.9 win-loss tempo split is wider than Utah's 106.1/105.6, tying their wins more clearly to pace.
    • Utah's 2025 offensive transition efficiency was higher: 1.151 points per possession versus New Orleans' 1.126.
    Short Bench
    • Rotation read: New Orleans used 10 players at least 14.5 preseason minutes versus Utah's 9; the extra playable layer matters with equal rest.
    • Pace supports New Orleans controlling its preferred tempo: Pelicans 106.3 regular-season and 105.8 preseason possessions versus Utah's 102.5 and 103.5.
    • There is no actual rest differential: both teams have one intervening day off, so this is a rotation-depth read rather than a fatigue edge.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 2025 net rating: New Orleans -4.51 versus Utah -8.03, a 3.52-point team-strength edge.
    • Current opener: New Orleans -2.8 versus Utah -19.5 net rating, directionally reinforcing the prior-season gap.
    • Conservative estimate is 54.0%, leaving only a 5.4-point edge; this is not a large-margin play.
  2. New Orleans Pelicans spread +1.52 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails, Sharp Wallet Dog
    Why 2 models like it
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
      • The exact-sport week and all-time reads returned the same 106-position sample; recent deterioration cannot be independently separated.
      Sharp Wallet Dog
      • Model fair cover probability is 55.5%, above the 52% gate; 2025 net-rating gap favored New Orleans by 3.52 points.
      • Pinnacle's exact +1.5 rung (-113/-125) devigs to 48.8% for New Orleans; sportsbook spread is within one point of the market's -1.5.
      • Both starting groups remain expected rather than confirmed; the projection was last timestamped 3:05 AM PDT.
    • Game total under 239.52 models agree
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on Novig

      2 modelsHigh Bar, BETALAB 6.0
      Why 2 models like it
      High Bar
      • Utah ranks 23rd in pace and 20th in offensive rating; New Orleans ranks 13th in both, so neither team is top-five in both gates.
      • The 239.5 rung is the sharp main total and sits exactly within the required two-point window.
      • Only one regular-season game is in the sample, so the 223.0 scoring baseline is extremely thin.
      BETALAB 6.0
      • Model estimate: 227 total points from a current/last-season efficiency blend; 12.5 points below the traded 239.5.
      • Verified current regular-game form: New Orleans 112.9 ORtg/115.7 DRtg; Utah 100.5 ORtg/120.0 DRtg.
      • Both starting groups are expected, not confirmed; a late change involving Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, Lauri Markkanen, or Jaren Jackson Jr. could move the total.
    • Utah Jazz +2.52 models agree
      +75%Won

      Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

      2 modelsRung Walker, Overreaction Fader
      Why 2 models like it
      Rung Walker
      • Sharp anchor: Pinnacle Jazz -1 at -105/-105, devigged 50%; normal margin model uses Jazz +1 mean and 12-point SD.
      • The quoted rung is 1.5 points from the sharp -1 main number; full-game spread prices remain monotonic around it.
      • The sharp anchor is -1 while the traded rung is -2.5, so this is a derived same-market curve reference rather than an identical main number.
      Overreaction Fader
      • Pinnacle opener Jazz -5.5 to current Jazz -1.0: 4.5-point move against Utah, coinciding with Jusuf Nurkic's absence.
      • Nurkic is projected for only 11.43 minutes this season; last-season on/off sums imply roughly neutral impact, about 0.0, 0.2 points after replacement.
      • Final starters and late scratches remain unconfirmed; the expected lineup can still change before tip.
    • Under 240.5 total
      +91%Won

      Taken at −110 on DraftKings

      Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 240.5 is 6+ points above a simple rating-and-possession blend near 234.
      • New Orleans and Utah are averaging 106.3 and 102.5 possessions, limiting the pace baseline.
      • Current offensive/defensive ratings blend to roughly 234 total points before variance.
      • Both teams have only one current-season game; the ratings sample is extremely thin.
    • Game total under 240.5
      +82%Won

      Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

      Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projection is approximately 235 total, about 5.5 points below Kalshi's 240.5 center rung.
      • New Orleans' early pace is 106.3 possessions; Utah's is 102.5, while Utah posted only a 100.5 offensive rating.
      • Last season's team totals averaged 235.5 for New Orleans and 243.6 for Utah; October rotation uncertainty favors a conservative total.
      • Each team has only one regular-season game in the current sample, so efficiency and pace estimates are noisy.
    Show all 15 picks
    1. under 239.5 total points
      +87%Won

      Taken at −115 on FanDuel

      Coaches CornerDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Both coaches' recent teams show sub-108 offensive ratings on average, pointing to a half-court scoring environment.
      • Will Hardy is in year five with Utah; his established rotation and defensive structure offer the clearer pace-control signal.
      • Expected lineups, not confirmed: six listed outs per side reduce bench certainty and favor a slower, less efficient game script.
      • The combined sample is only five games and may include unstable early-season rotation patterns.
    2. Game total over 239
      0%Push

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Pace PairDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • blended opponent-adjusted pace and ratings project approximately 243 total points, 4 above the 239 rung.
      • L10 pace is 106.7 for New Orleans and 107.4 for Utah versus season marks of 103.7 and 105.8.
      • L10 defenses allow 118.7 and 123.2 points per 100; New Orleans' faster profile can pull Utah beyond its 102.5-possession opener.
      • The 10-game sample mixes the prior season with one current-season game and new rosters/coaches.
    3. Utah Jazz to win
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on Novig

      Old PriorDown 10% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Last-season net ratings were Utah -8.0 and New Orleans -4.5; blending that prior with home court and roster changes supports a Utah rebound from the current near-pick’em.
      • Utah’s 0-1, -20 opener versus New Orleans’ 0-1, -3 opener is a one-game sample, making regression the intended edge.
      • Expected, not confirmed, starting lineups; late availability changes could materially alter the fair number.
    4. Utah Jazz −1
      0%Push

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Steam CoolerUp 35% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Utah moved 3, 4 points from the opening -4.5/-5.5 to -1.5 after the injury news; my estimated swing is about 1 point smaller.
      • Trey Alexander changed from questionable to Out on the dated 2026-10-23 report, but he played only 9 games and 110.6 minutes in 2025-26.
      • The report itself identifies Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jaxson Hayes as the replacement frontcourt rotation for Nurkic; that is better than a full Nurkic-loss haircut.
      • Utah's expected, not confirmed, lineup still leaves late-status uncertainty before tip.
    5. Under 238.5 total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

      Second UnitDown 44% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Utah pace 102.5 and New Orleans pace 106.3; the 104.4 blend favors Utah controlling a slower game.
      • DraftKings exact-rung reference: under -105/over -115; devigged under 48.9% from one book.
      • Both teams last played October 21: one rest day before tonight, neither current matchup is a back-to-back; no rest differential.
    6. Game under 238.5 total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

      Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • New Orleans has the slight tempo edge at 106.3 possessions versus Utah's 102.5; both pace_l10_delta readings are 0.0.
      • Cross-efficiency estimates are 116.5 for New Orleans and 108.1 for Utah; at 104.4 possessions, projection is 234.4 points.
      • Pinnacle same-rung Under 238.5 is -101; Kalshi NO at 48¢ is modestly cheaper. No rest or back-to-back status is a primary driver.
      • Projected starters remain expected rather than confirmed; a late change involving Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, Lauri Markkanen, or Jaren Jackson Jr. could alter efficiency.
    7. Game total under 238.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 48¢ on Novig

      Cheap SideUp 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Current regular-season L10 proxy: New Orleans 106.3 pace and 112.9 ORTG; Utah 102.5 pace and 100.5 ORTG.
      • Cross-opponent efficiency estimate is approximately 234.5 points before a modest one-day-turnaround adjustment.
      • The regular-season L10 sample is only one game per team, so the distribution is unusually uncertain.
    8. Utah Jazz spread +1
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      Look-Ahead PairsUp 20% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • New Orleans plays at Denver tomorrow; Utah has no game until Sunday, a verified rest differential.
      • Both teams last played Oct. 21; Utah avoids the Pelicans' next-night road assignment.
      • Pinnacle's captured spread is off-rung; this is primarily venue self-reference.
      • New Orleans is also rested tonight; the edge depends on the next-night Denver schedule spot.
    9. Total under 240.5
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • prior-season 10-game pace blend is 105.5 possessions for New Orleans and 108.3 for Utah; current openers were 106.3 and 102.5.
      • Projected total is approximately 235, 236, at least 4.5 points below the 240.5 rung.
      • Mechanism: neither team’s current or prior pace profile supports the 110-plus possession game implied by this high ladder.
      • Only one current-season game per team means the prior-season blend is load-bearing; roster and coaching changes widen the projection interval.

    Questions

    Who won Pelicans vs. Jazz?

    The Jazz won 120–119 on Friday, Oct 23, 2026.

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