Knicks vs. CelticsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalTD Garden · Boston
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYK | 27 | 22 | 24 | 30 | 103 |
| BOS | 26 | 24 | 33 | 24 | 107 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 223.5 52¢
Why Opener Ladder likes it: Projected total is about 220, 221: pace 103.1 possessions and matchup-adjusted efficiency below the Kalshi rung.
Opener LadderUp 15% return this season · 53 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-4 on this game · −5% return
- Game total under 223.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected total is about 220, 221: pace 103.1 possessions and matchup-adjusted efficiency below the Kalshi rung.
- New York's current 93.6 offensive rating and Boston's 99.2 defensive rating support a lower blended outcome.
- Early-season rotation and minutes uncertainty favors conservative scoring assumptions; neither side qualifies for the brief's over filter.
- Only one regular-season game supplies current-season efficiency inputs for each team.
- Boston Celtics wins by over 3.5 points+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Margin IdentityUp 19% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Boston spread ladder midpoints fall 55.5% → 51.5% → 47.5% from over 1.5 to over 3.5.
- The 3.5 rung is near the market's -2.5 spread, has a 1¢ quote gap, and traded 4,151 contracts.
- The 0.5-point winner rung is not listed, so the winner-to-1.5 comparison leaves one-point-margin probability unresolved.
- Josh Hart under 3.5 assists−100%Lost
Taken at +104 on FanDuel
Picks with pink (nba) player propsUp 67% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 3.3 L10 assists average versus 3.5: a 5.7% directional gap toward the under.
- Under 3.5 in 7/10 L10, 4/5 L5, and 1/1 current-season regular-season game.
- 31.8 L10 and 30.7 L5 minutes support stable opportunity rather than a playing-time fade.
- H2H under rate is 4/8, so the matchup history provides no positive support.
- Karl-Anthony Towns over 17.5 points+81%Won
Taken at −124 on DraftKings
Picks with pink (nba) player propsUp 67% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 19.5 L10 points average versus 17.5: an 11.4% directional gap.
- Over 17.5 in 7/10 L10, 4/5 L5, and 1/1 current-season regular-season game.
- 28.6 L10 and 29.1 L5 minutes support a stable starter-level opportunity.
- Only one current-season regular-season observation makes the season gate thin despite a 1/1 result.
- New York Knicks game winner−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Tempo BossDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Spread gate cleared: Boston is only a 2.5-point favorite, within the 4-point close-game limit.
- Pace gate cleared: New York's last-20 pace was 99.76 against fast opponents and 99.48 against slow opponents, a 0.28-point swing; Boston's swing was 6.22.
- Efficiency gate cleared: New York's last-10 net rating was +8.29 versus Boston's +3.79.
- Projected lineups are not confirmed; New York has several questionable players and Boston's report is also subject to late change.
- New York Knicks under 223.5 game total+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US
Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
Show all 8 picks
- Game over 219.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Band: LEAN; edge class: PROJECTION; reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE.
- Pace mismatch is 106.9 Knicks versus 99.2 Celtics; with both pace_l10 deltas at 0.0, New York's higher observed pace is the tempo side.
- Efficiency read: Knicks offense 93.6 versus Celtics defense 122.0 implies roughly 107.8 Knicks points; Celtics offense 113.9 versus Knicks defense 99.2 implies roughly 106.6.
- Current-season sample is only one game per team; pace_l10 delta of 0.0 is not a robust trend signal.
- Over 222 total−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- blended model projects approximately 225.5 total points, 3.5 above the 222 rung.
- Prior-season totals averaged 222.0 in Boston games and 226.7 in New York games; last-10 efficiency keeps the blend above market.
- Expected starting groups retain Brunson, Towns, Tatum and George; both coaches' normal rotations support the scoring baseline.
- Only one current-season regular-season game per team; the brief's early-season gate caps this at a lean.
Questions
Who won Knicks vs. Celtics?
The Celtics won 107–103 on Friday, Oct 23, 2026.