Get app

Bulls vs. CelticsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalTD Garden · Boston
Bulls
99–134Final
Celtics
Score by period
Team1234T
CHI2133212499
BOS33333929134

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 232.5 52¢

Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 7% return this season · 368 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 15-9 on this game · +21% return

  1. Game total under 233.54 models agree
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    4 modelsCoaches Corner, First Month +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Boston played at 95.0 and 99.2 possessions in its last two games under Mazzulla.
    • Boston has three rest days; Chicago is on a back-to-back and has played three games in four nights.
    • Chicago reached 112.2 and 109.2 possessions in its last two games, so transition pace can break the handicap.
    First Month
    • Boston averaged 98.3 possessions last season and Chicago 105.2; the blended baseline is below this total's scoring requirement.
    • Chicago's new coach and changed frontcourt rotation support a conservative roster-change adjustment rather than extrapolating three noisy games.
    • Projected lineups are not confirmed; Chicago's expected group has Nic Claxton out and several players questionable.
    Pace Mismatch
    • Projected total is approximately 229 points, 4.5 below Kalshi's 233.5-point center.
    • Last-10 pace: Boston 103.1 possessions, Chicago 108.9; slower-team bias produces roughly 104 possessions.
    • Both teams have multiple rest days; there is no back-to-back pace penalty.
    Rest Ledger
    • Bulls have a three-in-four spot (Milwaukee Oct. 23, Washington Oct. 24, Boston tonight); Boston last played Oct. 23 and has three rest days.
    • Current scoring blend is 232.4 points (Boston 110.0/112.0, Chicago 114.7/128.0); a 1.5-point fatigue drag projects roughly 231.0.
    • Only two Boston and three Chicago regular-season games are in the current sample; the projection is highly early-season sensitive.
  2. Boston Celtics −14.52 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsLate Scratch Ledger, Back-to-Back Debt
    Why 2 models like it
    Late Scratch Ledger
    • Nic Claxton was officially ruled out at 3:00pm; his last-season role was 28.0 minutes in 68 starts, while expected replacement Jalen Smith averages 22.6 minutes and -7.7 plus/minus.
    • Chicago is 1-2 with a -12.0 net rating through three regular-season games without Claxton; Boston is rested while Chicago is on a back-to-back.
    • The three-game no-Claxton sample is confounded and too small for a clean on/off estimate; Claxton had not played a regular-season minute yet.
    Back-to-Back Debt
    • Chicago plays its third game in four nights after Oct. 23 and Oct. 24; Boston last played Oct. 23.
    • Chicago went 3-18 with a -11.63 average net rating in 21 prior 3-in-4 games; this season is 0-1 at -3.7, a thin one-game sample.
    • The 2026-27 fatigue sample is only one game, and the 21-game prior sample spans different personnel and coaching.
  3. Game total over 232.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
  4. Paul George under 20 points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston's Kalshi ladder implies a 57.5% chance of winning by more than 12.5, supporting starter-minute risk.
    • George averaged 16.1 points in his last 20 starts and stayed under 20 in 17 of 20.
    • All eight of his 15+ margin starts in that sample finished under 20 points.
    • George is new to Boston and has only four current Celtics starts; the sample includes his prior Philadelphia role.
  5. Jayson Tatum under 25 points
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi spread ladder puts Boston's median margin near 14.5; Boston over 12.5 is 57.5%.
    • Tatum averaged 22.75 points across his last 20 starts; under 25 in 13 of 20.
    • In the eight 15+ margin games, Tatum averaged 33.21 minutes and stayed under 25 four times.
    • Expected starters were last refreshed at 2:57 AM PDT, not officially confirmed at this wake.
  6. Game total under 233
    0%Push

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Bench BossDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston’s Mazzulla-led home sample is 97.1 possessions, with 95.0 and 99.2 in its two latest games.
    • Chicago’s last three pace figures are 109.2, 112.2, and 111.7, but its season offensive rating is only 103.3; Boston can impose the slower half-court game.
    • Most likely loss: Chicago’s fast recent tempo carries over and Boston’s shooting turns a transition-heavy game into 234+ points.
Show all 21 picks
  1. Chicago Bulls +14.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Novig

    Old PriorDown 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-season regular-season net ratings were Boston +7.887 and Chicago -5.021, a 12.908-point differential before home court.
    • Current regular-season samples are only Boston -1.95 net over two games and Chicago -12.0 over three, supporting regression rather than full-strength repricing.
    • Chicago's projected lineup is unconfirmed, with Patrick Williams and Noa Essengue questionable and Nic Claxton out.
  2. Under 233.5 total points
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Schedule Tax ContrarianUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup estimate 225-228 points, 5.5-8.5 below DraftKings' 233.5.
    • Pace blend is only 104.1 possessions: Chicago 111.0, Boston 97.1.
    • Chicago has games on Oct. 23, 24 and 26; the clear 3-in-4 schedule tax favors a slower offensive environment.
    • Only three Chicago games and two Boston games: the efficiency sample is very thin and noisy.
  3. Over 232.5 total
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Pace ClashDown 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total 235.0: 104.7 projected possessions × 2.26 combined points per possession − 1.5 for Claxton's absence.
    • Last-10 pace is Boston 98.3 versus Chicago 108.9; a 60/40 Chicago tempo pull projects 104.7 possessions.
    • Efficiency uses last season because both teams have fewer than eight current-season games; opponent adjustment may be misspecified.
  4. Chicago Bulls spread +15
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Resting SizeDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent rating/injury read projects Boston by approximately 14.5 points: current net ratings are Boston -1.95 and Chicago -12.00, with Chicago's Claxton and Patrick Williams out.
    • Pinnacle is Boston -14.5, within 0.5 points of ProphetX's +15; the size is not sitting on a stale number.
    • The rating sample is only two Boston games and three Chicago games, so the 14.5-point projection is noisy.
  5. Game total over 233.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Novig

    Tip TotalDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected total 255.6: 106.6 blended possessions × (1.042 + 1.364) PPP, less 1.0 for Chicago's back-to-back.
    • Chicago's expected Powell, Buzelis, Giddey, Wilson, Smith five has 116.7 pace and 104.2 offensive rating over 95 possessions.
    • That Bulls five is 5.7 possessions faster than Chicago's 111.0 average across its three 2026-27 games.
    • Both starting groups remain labeled expected rather than confirmed; a late change can erase the pace edge.
  6. Chicago Bulls +13.5 spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Splash VarianceDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Depth support: six Bulls players have scored at least 30 points across the first three regular-season games, reducing one-shooter dependence.
    • Most likely loss: Chicago's defense has a 115.3 early-season defensive rating and can turn Boston's talent edge into a runaway.
  7. Chicago Bulls spread +13
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Ladder SeamDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston -630 implies an 86.3% win probability.
    • Using NBA margin SD 12, that moneyline maps to roughly a 13.1-point mean margin; Boston -13 covers about 50.5%, so Chicago +13 cashes about 49.5%.
    • Reference label: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; the +13 quote was unchanged on a refresh at 3:25:46 PM PDT.
    • The 49.5% cashing estimate is a normal-margin approximation, not an independent team projection.
  8. Game total under 231.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Split ShiftDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Role-adjusted projection: 229.4 points, 3.1 below the 232.5 sharp-book main line; the 3-point gate clears.
    • Shrunk road Bulls offense/pace: 110.2 ORtg and 104.9 pace; shrunk home Celtics: 113.2 ORtg and 100.6 pace.
    • Expected rather than confirmed lineups remain the main uncertainty five hours before tip.
  9. Game total under 234
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Sharp DriftDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SHARP REFERENCE Pinnacle moved from 234.5 opening to 232.5 current, a 2.0-point under move.
    • Pinnacle stayed at 232.5 after its 5:38 AM move; no reversal is evident before tip.
    • Cashing likelihood is 54% apart from price quality; current expected lineups and the live injury report show no documented status change accompanying the move.
    • The most likely loss is a high-pace, hot-shooting game that clears 234 despite the moved number.
  10. Jalen Smith over 10.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −125 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6 of 7 2026 starts cleared 10.5 points; he averaged 12.4 in those starts.
    • Recent opportunity is stable: 24.4 minutes in each of his last two games and 9.2 field-goal attempts over his last five.
    • Only seven starts form the main sample; one produced 5 points and shows meaningful scoring variance.
  11. Chicago Bulls over 14.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston's season net rating is -1.9 versus Chicago's -12.0; the 10.1-point gap plus home court is smaller than the market's 14.5-point handicap.
    • Boston's two recent games produced net ratings of +4.2 and -8.1; Chicago's three-game average is -12.0, but both samples are too small for a full-strength favorite projection.
    • Full-game +14.5 provides more protection than Boston moneyline or shorter Chicago alternate spreads; research quality 70/100, grade B.
    • Chicago is missing Nic Claxton and Patrick Williams; the expected lineup is not confirmed and frontcourt depth can widen the margin.
  12. Game total under 239.5
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: expected total 234 points, 5.5 below this exact 239.5 Kalshi rung.
    • Bulls likely dictate tempo: 111.0 pace versus Boston's 97.1; both pace_l10_delta are 0.0, so the gap is baseline-driven.
    • Efficiency blend: Boston 113.2 ORTG versus Chicago 115.3 DRTG; Chicago 103.3 ORTG versus Boston 115.2 DRTG.
    • Patrick Williams and Noa Essengue remain questionable in both the live report and official NBA PDF; rotation impact is unresolved.
  13. Jayson Tatum under 43.5 points + rebounds + assists
    +93%Won

    Taken at −107 on DraftKings

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 36.25 season-to-date PRA average, 7.25 below the 43.5 line.
    • Under in 3 of Tatum's 4 games: PRA results 52, 28, 33, 32.
    • DraftKings -107 implies roughly 51.7%; my estimate is 56%.
    • Chicago is allowing 128.0 points per game through three contests, supporting a strong scoring environment.
  14. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +34400

    Look-Ahead PairsUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cleveland has the schedule edge: Minnesota played Oct. 25; Cleveland last played Oct. 24, with travel into this game.
    • Boston has the schedule edge: Chicago played Oct. 24; Boston last played Oct. 23, with the extra rest day.
    • captured main numbers held at Cleveland -3.5 and Boston -14.5; the schedule edges had not moved the lines toward either side.
    • Projected, not confirmed, lineups at 3:05 AM PDT; late news could erase either rest edge, although neither favored side has a listed questionable key player.
  15. Game total over 229.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • blended projection is 233.5 points, 4.0 above this rung.
    • Pace blend is about 103, 104 possessions: Boston's current 97.1 is offset by Chicago's 111.0, with prior L10 at 98.3 and 108.9.
    • Cashing likelihood is 60%; ProphetX -144 implies 59.0%, so the price edge is small but positive.
    • Expected rather than confirmed lineups; Patrick Williams and Noa Essengue remain questionable, while Nic Claxton is out.

Questions

Who won Bulls vs. Celtics?

The Celtics won 134–99 on Monday, Oct 26, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.