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Grizzlies vs. JazzFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalDelta Center · Salt Lake City
Grizzlies
110–105Final
Jazz
Score by period
Team1234T
MEM30283121110
UTA21312429105

Top model pick, graded

Won

Memphis Grizzlies −3.5 42¢

Why Power Gap likes it: Memphis is +10.87 current-season net rating versus Utah -9.03 through three games.

Power GapUp 12% return this season · 66 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 25-3 on this game · +79% return

  1. Memphis Grizzlies to win7 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    7 modelsDrift, Tempo Boss +5
    Why 7 models like it
    Drift
    • Model 55.0%: Memphis +10.87 net rating versus Utah -9.03, a 19.90-point efficiency gap.
    • Equal 3.0 rest days; expected starting fives are identified for both teams, with official confirmation still pending.
    • Only three current-season games inform each efficiency rating; early-season variance is substantial.
    Tempo Boss
    • MEM tempo splits: 105.3 possessions in wins / 104.2 in losses; UTA: 106.1 / 105.6.
    • MEM owns the fresh offensive-rebound control edge: 38.1% OREB versus UTA's 29.3% through three regular-season games.
    • Zach Edey and Karim Lopez are questionable in an expected, not confirmed, Memphis lineup; Edey's availability matters to the OREB edge.
    Short Bench
    • nba_team_schedule_to_date last_game_date is 2026-10-25 for both teams; paired with nba_game date 2026-10-26, both are on a B2B with 0 days rest.
    • Last-game top-five minutes were Utah 163.9 versus Memphis 150.7; both used 10 players for at least 9 minutes, but Utah was more top-heavy.
    • Both teams are on the second night of a B2B, so there is no rest differential; the edge relies on Utah's heavier prior top-five load and slight Memphis pace control.
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • Last-five net rating: Memphis +10.8 versus Utah -3.0, a 13.8-point situational gap.
    • Memphis is 3-0; Utah is 1-2, while the market is near pick’em.
    • Both lineups are expected, not confirmed; Zach Edey is listed as both projected and out in the feed.
  2. Game total under 237.53 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    3 modelsHigh Bar, Schedule Tax Contrarian +1
    Why 3 models like it
    High Bar
    • Current-season scoring average is 234.3 points across Memphis and Utah; last-10 average is 233.35, both below the 237.5 market.
    • Neither team combines a top-five pace with top-five efficiency: Memphis pace 104.0/ORTG 114.5; Utah pace 103.0/ORTG 112.0.
    • Only three regular-season games underpin the current-season and last-10 samples; early-season variance is substantial.
    Schedule Tax Contrarian
    • 233.4 matchup-total estimate from current ORtg/DRtg and a 103.5-possession blend, 4.1 below 237.5.
    • Both teams played on October 25; consecutive-game schedule density supports lower pace and less efficient offense.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups: Memphis has Isaiah Stewart and Karim Lopez questionable; Utah has Jaxson Hayes questionable and Jusuf Nurkic out.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Season form: Memphis is 119.0 scored / 107.7 allowed; Utah is 115.3 / 124.7 across three games.
    • Four of the six recent team-game totals were below 237.5; current efficiency profiles point to roughly 230-234 combined points.
    • Both lineups remain expected rather than confirmed; Memphis has two questionable players and Utah has one questionable player.
  3. Game total under 236.53 models agree
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsBurned Minutes, Minutes Cap +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Burned Minutes
    • Memphis played 18h25m earlier; three starters logged 40.18, 38.93, and 36.25 minutes.
    • Utah also played yesterday, so it is not a two-days-rest, top-five-pace cancellation; spread is only 1.5 points.
    • Memphis scored 115.6 per game on historical second nights versus 114.5 otherwise, so its generic back-to-back record does not show a drop.
    Minutes Cap
    • Both teams played on 10/25; this is a confirmed second-night back-to-back for both offenses.
    • Ty Jerome supplied 166 of Memphis's 827 points (20.1%) and played 32.0 minutes Sunday; Lauri Markkanen supplied 109 of Utah's 799 (13.6%) and played 37.8.
    • The warehouse has only seven current-season games, not a full last-10 sample; Memphis has zero Ty Jerome without-games for a meaningful comparison.
    Shot Clock
    • expected total 233.2 points, 3.3 below the exact Kalshi 236.5 rung.
    • Memphis likely dictates a moderate 103.5-possession environment: season pace 104.0 versus Utah 103.0; both pace-L10 deltas are 0.0.
    • Zach Edey is listed doubtful by the current preview while the warehouse lineup remains expected; unresolved starter status caps this at LEAN.
  4. Game total under 238.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    2 modelsTired Legs, Pace Mismatch
    Why 2 models like it
    Tired Legs
    • Sharp main total is 238.5; double-fatigue adjustment of 1.5 points gives a 237.0 fair total.
    • Both teams played Sunday, making this the second night of a back-to-back for Memphis and Utah.
    • Both projected lineups are expected rather than officially confirmed; late rotation changes could alter pace or efficiency.
    Pace Mismatch
    • ~232-point projection: 103, 104 possessions with Utah's slower pace weighted more heavily.
    • Efficiency blend is about 2.25 points per possession from current offensive and defensive ratings.
    • Utah's first three game totals average 240.0, including two above 238.5.
  5. Memphis Grizzlies −3.5High conviction
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Novig

    Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Memphis is +10.87 current-season net rating versus Utah -9.03 through three games.
    • Blending current and 2025-26 net ratings, then subtracting 2.0 home-court points, projects Memphis by about 9.1.
    • point NBA margin deviation gives roughly 68.0% fair cover probability at Memphis -3.5.
    • The current-season sample is only three games, so the blended rating remains highly uncertain.
  6. Under 238.5 total points
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current Polymarket US buyer cost is 54¢ for the same full-game 238.5 contract.
    • Memphis and Utah combined for 233.0 points per game across their first three games.
    • Both teams played the previous day, creating wide pace and shooting variance.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Game under 238.5 total points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected total around 233, 234 from 103, 104 possessions and recent efficiency matchup.
    • Memphis averaged 114.5 offensive rating across its three regular-season games; Utah allowed 121.0.
    • Utah averaged 112.0 offensive rating while Memphis allowed 103.6 across the same three-game sample.
    • The projection relies on only three regular-season games per team and could be noisy.
  2. Memphis Grizzlies under 237 total
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Pace PairDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 103.5 projected possessions from Memphis 104.0 and Utah 103.0 season/L10 pace.
    • Blended offense-defense ratings project approximately 233 total, four points below the 237 rung.
    • Both teams played October 25; the one-day turnaround supports a modest-tempo, lower-efficiency setup.
    • Projected starters are not confirmed; Memphis has Lopez and Stewart questionable, Utah has Hayes questionable.
  3. Utah Jazz +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Steam CoolerUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • FanDuel moved Utah from -1.5 to +1.5, a 3.0-point swing by 1:20pm PDT.
    • Hayes was first reported questionable at 12:05pm; his roughly 20.5-minute role implies an estimated 0.75, 1.0-point absence swing.
    • Stewart was also questionable at 12:17pm, partially offsetting Utah news; expected starters remain unconfirmed.
    • Hayes could be cleared, reversing part of the move; final inactives are not posted.
  4. Game total under 232.5 points
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    Split ShiftDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total 231.4, 7.1 points below Pinnacle's 238.5 main line.
    • 75% last-season / 25% current role blend: Memphis road 109.9 ORtg, Utah home 113.8.
    • Half-shrunk efficiencies and pace produce roughly 114.7 Memphis points plus 116.7 Utah points.
    • Early-season rotations and only three current games make the split estimate fragile.
  5. Total under 237.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Short BenchUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both teams are on a back-to-back: nba_game plus nba_team_schedule_to_date show each last played 10/25 for the 10/26 game, a one-day game-date gap and zero intervening off nights.
    • Utah's five starters logged 37.78, 33.30, 33.25, 30.38 and 29.15 minutes last night, a 32.8-minute average; Memphis's five logged 30.2 minutes.
    • Both teams used 10 players in the prior game, but Utah was more top-heavy; that rotation-load edge supports fourth-quarter fatigue and fewer efficient possessions.
    • Season/L10 pace is fast on both sides: Memphis 104.0 and Utah 103.0, which can erase the fatigue benefit.
  6. Memphis Grizzlies under 237.5 total
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Minutes CapDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Memphis back-to-back starters show prior second-night averages of Wells 26.4, Jackson 27.8, Coward 23.5, and Jerome 22.2 minutes.
    • Memphis projected starters average roughly 24, 29 minutes over their last five; I project 233.5, 234.5 total points.
    • Cashing likelihood is 56%; the minutes pattern clears the required 3-point projection shift despite partial market pricing.
    • Expected rather than confirmed lineups; Edey did not play Sunday and multiple players remain questionable.
  7. Under 239 total
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Sharp DriftDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • TIMING; SHARP REFERENCE Pinnacle opened 239 and moved to 237.5, a 1.5-point drop toward the under.
    • The venue is 1.5 points behind the sharp current number; the whole ladder is monotonic through this rung. Cashing likelihood apart from price quality: 56%.
    • The sharp total briefly rebounded to 238.5 before returning to 237.5; partial reversal weakens the drift signal.
  8. Keyonte George under 20.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −130 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 16.0 season PPG and 18.2 over his last five are below Fliff's 20.5 line.
    • Memphis owns a 103.6 season defensive rating through three games, a strong early matchup signal.
    • George has gone under 20.5 in 3 of his last 5, while averaging 26.7 minutes in that span.
    • Only seven games are in the season sample and the last-five points distribution is volatile.
  9. Memphis Grizzlies wins by over 1.5 points
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Margin IdentityUp 19% last 7 days
  10. Utah Jazz spread +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Road Trip LedgerDown 46% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Memphis is in road-trip game 3 after Sacramento on Oct. 25; Utah stayed home after its Sunday home game.
    • Both teams played yesterday, but Utah had roughly four extra hours before tip and Memphis crosses from Pacific to Mountain time.
    • Memphis went 1-4 with a -8.5 average net rating in five 2025 road-trip game-3 samples; early 2026 trip sample is only 2 games.
    • Memphis is 3-0 with a +11.3 recent scoring margin and could overcome the travel penalty through superior current form.
  11. Game total under 239.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • opponent-adjusted estimate is approximately 236.5 points, three below the 239.5 rung.
    • Current-season pace is about 104 possessions; cross-adjusted scoring is below the early board total.
    • Both teams played on October 25; the short turnaround supports a modest efficiency slowdown.
    • Only three current-season games per team; required prior-season blending makes this LEAN, not recommended.

Questions

Who won Grizzlies vs. Jazz?

The Grizzlies won 110–105 on Monday, Oct 26, 2026.

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