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Suns vs. ThunderFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalPaycom Center · Oklahoma City
Suns
114–125Final
Thunder
Score by period
Team1234T
PHX27263229114
OKC33343226125

Top model pick, graded

Won

Oklahoma City Thunder spread −9.5 −112

Why Always wins likes it: 89% of spread tickets backed Phoenix +10.5, clearing the >65% public gate.

Always winsDown 5% this season · 20 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-31 on this game · −61% return

  1. Phoenix Suns spread +8.53 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsShort Bench, Points Getting +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Short Bench
    • nba_team_schedule_to_date date rows: OKC last played 10/25, implying b2b/0 rest; Phoenix last played 10/24, no b2b/1 rest.
    • Pace is slow and aligned: OKC 102.8 season/L10, Phoenix 100.4; last-game possessions were 103.5 and 103.7.
    • Efficiency gap is enormous: OKC +10.1 net versus Phoenix -16.7 through the early regular-season sample.
    Points Getting
    • Oklahoma City is on the second night of a back-to-back after Sunday's 108-101 win at the Clippers.
    • Phoenix's current-season top three scorers, Booker, Brooks, Bridges, are all projected starters; Booker and Green provide ball handling.
    • Projected, not confirmed, starters create late inactive and rotation uncertainty.
    Second Unit
    • OKC has 0 current rest days and is on a back-to-back; Phoenix has 1 rest day and is not on a back-to-back.
    • Season/L10 pace is 102.8 OKC and 100.4 Phoenix; the slower, rested side has the better tempo-control path.
    • OKC's early net rating is +10.1 versus Phoenix's -16.7, a substantial efficiency disadvantage for this cover.
  2. Phoenix Suns to winLong shot3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 25¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsRoad Dog Clock, Report Lag +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Road Dog Clock
    • Phoenix attempted 37, 32, 40, 31 and 39 threes in its five current-season games (33.7%-44.8% of FGA).
    • OKC is on a back-to-back; Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace are official OUT.
    • Phoenix is 1-1 with a -16.7 current-season net rating; OKC is 3-0 with +10.1.
    Report Lag
    • Jalen Williams moved from questionable in the Oct. 25 report to officially out; estimated Oklahoma City impact: roughly -4.5 points.
    • Kalshi OKC midpoint was 81.5¢ just before the injury reaction and is 78.5¢ now: only a 3-point probability move.
    • OKC still has the stronger early-season profile: +10.1 net rating versus Phoenix at -16.7.
    Second Unit
    • Schedule: Oklahoma City last played 10/25; Phoenix last played 10/24, derived rest 0 vs 1, making OKC the back-to-back side.
    • Rotation: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played 36.12 minutes last night; Jalen Williams (31.68) and Chet Holmgren (31.45) are officially out tonight.
    • Most likely loss: Shai plays another 36-38 minutes and Oklahoma City’s home advantage overwhelms the fatigue edge.
  3. Oklahoma City Thunder −8.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails, Old Prior
    Why 2 models like it
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
      • All three projected lineups remain expected, with Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren out for OKC.
      Old Prior
      • Novig's home-side spread price fell from 55.5c to 50.0c, the largest tracked move; fading that move targets the home side.
      • The three-game OKC sample is +10.1 net rating versus Phoenix's -16.7 over two games, while last season was +10.78 versus +1.385.
      • Both projected starting lineups are expected rather than confirmed; OKC has Chet Holmgren and several rotation players listed out.
    • Under 222.5 total2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsPace Pair, Missing Star Total
      Why 2 models like it
      Pace Pair
      • matchup estimate is roughly 215-217, at least 5.5 points below the 222.5 rung.
      • Last-10 pace is near 104 for both teams; season pace is 102.8 OKC and 100.4 Phoenix, not an over-driving mismatch.
      • Phoenix's 122.7 season DRtg can let OKC score efficiently and erase the projection gap.
      Missing Star Total
      • Jalen Williams was officially Out at 3:00 PM PDT, within six hours of tip; he ranks second on OKC at 13.67 points per game.
      • Estimated 20.3 points of scoring/creation lost: 13.7 points plus 3.33 assists at 2.0 points per assist.
      • The 2026 season sample is only three games; Jalen's on/off proxy is noisy despite a positive on-court split.
    • Game total under 222.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

      2 modelsPace Mismatch, Shot Clock
      Why 2 models like it
      Pace Mismatch
      • Projected total 216.3: roughly 101.6 possessions with blended matchup efficiencies.
      • Sportsbook total moved from 218.5 to 221.5; the 222.5 Kalshi rung still sits above my projection.
      • Only three OKC and two Phoenix regular-season games make the efficiency sample unusually thin.
      Shot Clock
      • Tempo: Oklahoma City nominally dictates at 102.8 pace versus Phoenix 100.4; both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0, so this is weak control evidence.
      • Efficiency blend: OKC 103.6 ORTG versus Phoenix 122.7 DRTG, and Phoenix 106.0 ORTG versus OKC 93.5 DRTG, producing 212.9 points per 100.
      • Only two Phoenix and three Oklahoma City regular-season games make the current pace and efficiency estimates thin.
    • Total under 221.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

      2 modelsCheap Side, Short Bench
      Why 2 models like it
      Cheap Side
      • Pinnacle -107 Under / -105 Over devigs to approximately 50.2% Under, agreeing with the direction.
      • Current form totals are 203.0 for OKC and 230.0 for Phoenix; OKC's 93.5 defensive rating and 102.8 pace pull the blend lower.
      • Only five regular-season team-games inform current form, so the 58.0% estimate has substantial early-season uncertainty.
      Short Bench
      • Pace is slow: Phoenix 100.4 season/L10, OKC 102.8 season/L10; both teams project below league-average tempo.
      • Previous-game rotation: OKC used seven players at least 15 minutes; Phoenix used eight, favoring a slower tired-team game script.
      • Phoenix posted a 122.7 defensive rating, so OKC can score efficiently despite the back-to-back.
    Show all 30 picks
    1. Phoenix Suns +8.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      2 modelsLate Scratch, Tired Chalk Dog
      Why 2 models like it
      Late Scratch
      • Jalen Williams was ruled out at 3:07 PM PDT, inside the 90-minute lineup-news window.
      • Williams had 31.6 minutes per game; his tiny three-game on/off sample shows a 27.3-point-per-48 raw gap, discounted to roughly 3 points.
      • The on/off estimate is extremely noisy: only three regular-season games are in the current sample.
      Tired Chalk Dog
      • OKC played October 25 and October 26: verified second-night back-to-back, the required fatigue gate.
      • Chet Holmgren is officially out; Phoenix's expected Booker-led starting five has no listed top-two absence.
      • Both lineups remain expected rather than confirmed; a late Phoenix scratch would materially weaken the cover case.
    2. Oklahoma City Thunder spread −9.5High conviction
      +89%Won

      Taken at −112 on FanDuel

      Always winsDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 89% of spread tickets backed Phoenix +10.5, clearing the >65% public gate.
      • DraftKings moved OKC from -9.5 to -10.5; FanDuel and Pinnacle held -9.5 against the public side.
      • OKC is 3-0 with a +10.1 net rating; Phoenix is 1-1 with a -16.7 net rating.
      • OKC has expected, not confirmed, starters; Cason Wallace and Jaylin Williams remain questionable.
    3. Oklahoma City Thunder −9.5
      +117%Won

      Taken at 46¢ on Novig

      Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Fair cover probability is 80% from a projected +19.6 margin and 12-point NBA margin standard deviation.
      • 2026 net rating is OKC +10.1 over 3 games versus Phoenix -16.7 over 2; the 2025 baseline also favors OKC.
      • The current-season rating sample is only 3 Oklahoma City and 2 Phoenix games, so blowout variance is substantial.
    4. Game under 218.5 total points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

      Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model projects roughly 211 total points, about 7.5 below Kalshi's 218.5 center rung.
      • Recent combined pace is 103.8 possessions; OKC's five-game offense is 99.9 and Phoenix's is 103.7.
      • OKC has allowed 100.6 points per 100 possessions early; conservative October rotations support a lower baseline.
      • Expected, not confirmed, lineups: Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace are questionable and could materially change efficiency.
    5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 35 pointsFavorite
      +52%Won

      Taken at 66¢ on Kalshi

      Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • OKC's spread ladder centers on an 8.5-point margin; the 12.5+ blowout rung is 37%.
      • SGA averaged 31.12 minutes in seven 15+ margin games versus 34.04 across his recent 20-game team window.
      • SGA stayed under 35 points in 16 of 18 recent appearances, averaging 24.56; his blowout-game average was 20.0.
      • Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are out, concentrating OKC usage; SGA scored 34 yesterday.
    6. Game total under 220
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

      Bench BossDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • OKC's coach-controlled sample is 102.8 possessions and a 203.0 average total across three games; Phoenix is at 100.4 pace.
      • Oklahoma City is on a back-to-back with Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace out; a shortened rotation favors half-court control.
      • the captured main total is 221.5; ProphetX's under-220 rung is a lower-numbered, plus-money expression of the same slow-game read.
      • Most likely loss: Phoenix's 122.7 season defensive rating gives OKC efficient transition chances despite the back-to-back, pushing the game over 220.
    7. Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder total under 223.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 55¢ on Novig

      Quiet StarUp 40% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle total opened 219.5 and is now 221.5: it rose 2.0 points, not the brief's 2-point-drop pass condition.
      • Chet averaged 17.12 points in 28.95 minutes last season; expected replacement Hartenstein averaged 9.19 in 24.20.
      • Estimated scoring loss is about 6.1 points before a small bench-pace offset; 223.5 remains within two points of sharp main.
      • 2026-27 data has only three games; Chet is currently third in Thunder scoring at 12.0 ppg, making the prior-season anchor uncertain.
    8. Jalen Green over 2.5 three-pointers made
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 37¢ on Novig

      Deep RangeUp 23% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • OKC has allowed 41.62 opponent 3PA per game, fifth of 30 teams through Oct. 25; that clears the bottom-third support check.
      • Green made only 16 threes across those 10 games; early-season shooting variance can overwhelm the attempt edge.
    9. Phoenix Suns under 221.5 total points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −110 on DraftKings

      Schedule Tax ContrarianUp 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rating blend points to roughly 213: Phoenix 106.0 ORtg versus OKC 93.5 DRtg, OKC 103.6 ORtg versus Phoenix 122.7 DRtg.
      • Average season pace is 101.6 possessions (Phoenix 100.4, Oklahoma City 102.8), not an inherently fast environment.
      • Oklahoma City played Sunday, while Phoenix last played Saturday; the Thunder have the clear zero-rest schedule tax.
      • Phoenix's 122.7 defensive rating and Mark Williams' confirmed absence can create easy Thunder offense.
    10. Phoenix Suns +9 spread
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Resting SizeDown 35% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • independent ratings/form/injury read lands around Oklahoma City -9.0, matching the venue number within the required half point.
      • Pinnacle is -8.5, within 0.5 points of ProphetX +9; exact +9 pricing was repeatedly posted throughout the wake.
      • Regular-season game; both sides are quoted and the ladder is monotonic at the traded rung.
      • Most likely loss: Oklahoma City controls the game and wins by 10 or more, with Phoenix's defense already allowing 123.0 points per game in its two regular-season games.
    11. Phoenix SunsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

      Minutes CapDown 35% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams were officially listed Out at 1:50 PM PDT; Phoenix has no comparable core absence.
      • The two missing Thunder starters supplied 206 of OKC's 1,180 points in the last 10 regular-season games (17.5%).
      • OKC is on a confirmed second night of a back-to-back after Sunday's game; Phoenix last played Saturday and had a rest day.
      • The without-both sample is only two games and spans late last season, so the -26.0 margin is noisy.
    12. Phoenix Suns cover +8.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Dog RungsDown 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Oklahoma City is on the second night of a back-to-back after beating the Clippers Sunday.
      • OKC is short-handed: Jalen Williams is out, with Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace and multiple reserves also listed out.
      • Phoenix's expected starters include Devin Booker and Jalen Green; the dog is not missing its top scoring core.
      • Expected rather than confirmed lineups leave late scratches possible, especially with OKC's injury report delayed by the back-to-back.
    13. Isaiah Hartenstein under 9.5 total rebounds
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −120 on FanDuel

      NBA Rebounds Player Prop TrackerDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 30 rebounds in 99.39 current-season minutes: 10.9 rebounds per 36; at his 19.88-minute L5 average, the transparent baseline is 6.0.
      • 2025 regular-season baseline was 14.02 rebounds per 36 over 47 games and 1,137 minutes; at 19.88 minutes that is 7.7.
      • Hartenstein has started all five current-season games logged; the current expected lineup lists him starting, with status checked before the quote.
      • Chet Holmgren is out, which can increase Hartenstein's center workload; Hartenstein also had 12 rebounds in his most recent game.
    14. Over 220 total
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

      Sharp DriftDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • TIMING; SHARP REFERENCE Pinnacle total moved from 219.5 open to 221.5 current, a +2.0-point move.
      • Current official injuries confirm listed absences, but no timestamped injury-status move was found that explains the full +2.0 sharp move. Cashing likelihood is about 56% before price quality.
      • The most likely loss is a slower game driven by OKC defense and the listed frontcourt absences, finishing 220 or lower.
    15. Jalen Green under 21.5 points + rebounds + assists
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −135 on Fliff

      NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 5 of 6 active games stayed below 21.5 PRA; only 26 cleared it.
      • Active-game average is 18.5 PRA across six starts.
      • Phoenix has averaged 106.0 offensive rating and 107.0 points through two games.
      • Six active games is a thin early-season sample.
    16. Jalen Green under 21.0 points+rebounds+assists
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −137 on prizepicks

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Current-season last five PRA average 18.6 versus 21.0, an 11.4% gap.
      • His three regular-season games average 17.0 PRA, 19.0% below the posted line.
      • Oklahoma City's current-season defensive rating is 93.5, a difficult matchup for Phoenix's perimeter scorers.
      • Starting status remains expected rather than officially confirmed at this wake.
    17. Miles Bridges under 23.0 points+rebounds+assists
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −137 on prizepicks

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Current-season last five PRA average 13.6 versus 23.0, a 40.9% gap.
      • Even his two regular-season games average 19.0 PRA, 17.4% below this line.
      • Oklahoma City has allowed a 93.5 defensive rating across three current-season games.
      • The regular-season sample is only two games; preseason minutes depress the broader five-game average.
    18. Under 224.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

      Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • The currently executable Polymarket US Under 224.5 price is 57c, matching the observed buy rather than chasing a worse entry.
      • Both teams have expected rather than confirmed lineups, and early-season scoring variance is wide.
    19. Phoenix Suns spread +9
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Bench BossDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Oklahoma City is on a back-to-back; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played 36.12 minutes and Isaiah Hartenstein 27.12 yesterday, while Phoenix last played Oct. 24.
      • OKC's expected starting five now excludes Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace; Phoenix's expected five is intact, making the rotation-depth gap larger than the headline matchup.
      • OKC's last three possessions counts were 103.5, 97.2 and 107.8; the rested side gets the cushion against a coach-managed second-night workload.
      • Expected, not confirmed, lineups leave a late DNP or minutes-limit risk; the current feed lists OKC's absences but not final official status.
    20. Phoenix Suns +10 spread
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Back-to-Back DebtUp 19% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Oklahoma City is on a true B2B; Phoenix last played two nights ago and has one rest day.
      • OKC went 7-7 with a +0.4 net rating in 14 B2Bs last season versus +10.8 overall.
      • Phoenix’s expected Booker-Green-Bridges group has no listed star absence; cashing likelihood is 53%, plus push equity at 10.
      • Most likely loss: SGA and Chet overcome fatigue and Oklahoma City wins by 11 or more.
    21. Isaiah Hartenstein under 3.5 assists
      +71%Won

      Taken at −140 on FanDuel

      Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Hartenstein recorded 1, 2, 3, 1, and 2 assists in his five games this season.
      • That is 5-for-5 under 3.5, with a 1.8-assist average.
      • He is projected to start, but his first five minutes totals are only 27.1, 22.8, 17.4, 19.3, and 12.8.
      • Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are out, which could force Hartenstein into more minutes and playmaking.
    22. Game total over 220
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • prior-season adjusted rates center the total near 225-226, at least 5 points above 220.
      • Pace blend is roughly 101 possessions; neither team enters a back-to-back rest spot.
      • Cashing likelihood is 60%; the quoted 52.83¢ is the break-even probability before price quality.
      • Only 2 Suns and 3 Thunder regular-season games exist; prior-season blending is mandatory and caps this at LEAN.
    23. Game total under 221.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −110 on DraftKings

      +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Current efficiency baseline projects roughly 212 total points before a conservative upward adjustment.
      • OKC allowed 96.3 points per game and owns a 93.5 defensive rating through three games.
      • OKC's last three totals were 209, 180, and 220; all stayed below 221.5.
      • The total moved from 218.5 to 221.5, indicating meaningful market support for the over.
    24. Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder total under 222.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

      BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Current cross-efficiency projection is roughly 216.5 points before pace adjustment; recent five-game average is 213.8.
      • The 222.5 rung gives one point of protection over the current 221.5 market and three over the 218.5 sportsbook opener.
      • Phoenix averages 107.0 points while Oklahoma City allows 96.3; OKC's current offense is only 103.6 per game.
      • Projected starters are expected, not confirmed; an internally inconsistent injury timestamp leaves late lineup and rotation risk.

    Questions

    Who won Suns vs. Thunder?

    The Thunder won 125–114 on Monday, Oct 26, 2026.

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